Minnesota Timberwolf Ricky Rubio. (Photo Credit: Joe Bielawa, Flickr.com)
The NBA summer taught and reminded us a few things: The NBA old heads will stand by the likes of Trey Burke, Jeremy Lamb and Rudy Gay doppelgangers Ben McLemore and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope despite their inability to make a jump shot with any consistency (all while condemning John Hollinger’s stats because they cannot judge things like courage, heart and hard work); Dwight Howard is still Dwight Howard, but we overreacted and reacted too quickly this time; Kobe Bryant is taking steroids is such a fierce competitor and hard worker that he might recover from an Achilles injury in half the time it would take a normal human to recover from that same injury; Lakers fans will always think they have a chance, no matter how delusional it makes them look; and the point guard position has become unthinkably deep over the last few seasons.
Mo Williams — an All-Star in 2009 — could not land an NBA contract until early August. Nate Robinson, the hottest non-star free agent commodity going into the summer, did not sign until the latter days of the July free agency. Jeremy Lin went from “Linsanity” to becoming the most expendable core player on a Rockets’ team that just replaced Omer Asik without actually removing him. And Brandon Jennings went into the summer looking for max-level money and ended up getting just more than $8 million a year for three seasons.
The position may be deeper than it has ever been and the excess depth compelled me to try to sort through the top point guards in the league to figure out how everybody stacks up. I came up with 13 tiers to rank the top 30 point guards the NBA has to offer. Here is how it all shook out:
A few quick notes: I will use AST/TO, AST%, and AST Ratio to evaluate passing ability. As a warm up for this article, I previewed the pros and cons of these stats here. My criteria for ranking these players were their ability to score, ability to distribute, and their ability defend the position (because, you know, defense is half of the game).
Tier Thirteen – The Honorably Mentioned and Number 30
HM – Nate Robinson, 13.1 PPG, 43.3/40.5/79.9 shooting splits, 4.4 APG, 31.2 AST%, 2.49 AST/TO, 1 SPG
HM – Kirk Hinrich, 7.7 PPG, 37.7/39/71.4 splits, 26.7 AST%, 3.17 AST/TO, 5.2 APG, 1.1 SPG
Darren Collison, 12 PPG, 47.1/35.3/88 splits, 5.1 APG, 26.4%, 2.4 AST/TO 1.2 SPG
If morphed into one person, Robinson and Hinrich would make a top 20 point guard (and someone to have an interesting conversation with). Apart, Hinrich lacked the offensive capability to be the bonafide starter he once was, while Robinson lacked the defensive consistency and overall stability to be more than an irrational confidence guy off the bench. But together they were able to adequately fill the void left by Derrick Rose last season and help Tom Thibodeau drag the ailing Bulls into the playoffs despite the front office’s best efforts. That earns them a quick nod, even though neither is a legitimate starter on a playoff contender at this point in their career.
Darren Collison, the first entry into our top 30, is a bit of an enigma. Statistically, he has been a decent point guard his whole career — which is what earned him a spot on this list — scoring at decent rates and being an average assist man with a pretty good efficiency level in both those respects. However he has, for whatever reason, been unable to hold down a consistent starting job, despite having little competition at his last two landing spots. George Hill was clearly the point man that fit Indiana’s style the best between Hill and Collison, but the quickness by which Collison lost his starting job there is rather alarming. More alarming was the fact that he could not hold onto the starting job in Dallas last season, losing out to both Derek Fisher and Mike James at different points in the season. The reason why Collison cannot hold a starting job is anybody’s guess at this point. Maybe he will find new life re-assuming the role of Chris Paul‘s backup this season. Either way, Collison sneaks into the last spot because the numbers suggest he is at least a fully competent offensive NBA point guard.
Tier Twelve – I’m … um … pretty sure … they’re good
Kyle Lowry, 11.6 PPG, 40.1/36.2/79.5 splits, 6.4 APG, 33.6 AST%, 2.77 AST/TO, 1.4 SPG
Isaiah Thomas, 13.9 PPG, 44/35.8/88.2 splits, 4 APG, 24.3 AST%, 2.26 AST/TO .8 SPG
Kyle Lowry may have suffered most from the surge of point guards that entered the league over the last few seasons. A couple of years ago, Lowry was one of the 10 best point guards in basketball — in the same category as Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson and Mike Conley — but withered to the point where he barely made it within the top 30. It is eerie to see how much he at his prime compared to Isaiah Thomas now: an underrated player on a real bargain contract, who worked his ass off to earn his worth in the NBA despite being severely undersized. It will be interesting to see how Thomas progresses and how Lowry fares moving forward.
With Lowry, a lot of things are still being brought to the table. He is still a respectable threat from 3-point range and is still an above average assist guy. He rebounds above and beyond for his size and his position and while he might not be the lockdown defender he was prized as earlier in his career, he can be an effective, hard worker for a coach who can tone down his gambling and use it to his advantage with a particular defensive system. His overall ineffectiveness as a scorer — he is average around the rim, horrible from the mid-range, and above average from 3 — holds him back from jumping into a higher tier, as well as his tendency to break away from defensive systems to gamble ineffectively. Thomas, even at his best, will probably never live up to Lowry’s glory day. However he is average as an offensive threat — though scores it well for someone of his size — and an average ball distributor. There is room to improve though and he has shown flashes over the last couple of seasons of being a decent NBA point guard.
Tier Eleven – The Rubio Dilemma
Ricky Rubio, 10.7 PPG, 36/29.3/79.9 splits, 7.3 APG, 39.1 AST%, 2.43 AST/TO, 2.4 SPG
Here is the thing, it feels weird have a passer of Ricky Rubio‘s caliber this low on the list. However, Rubio is marginally overrated as a passer and is so bad as a scorer, it is hard to justify placing him in a higher tier. First, as a passer, while Rubio is great, he is not necessarily Chris Paul or Rajon Rondo great — instead he is more along the lines of Tony Parker and John Wall. But again, the issue is Rubio’s complete incompetency as an NBA scorer. He is absolutely no threat to put the ball in the basket. Rubio cannot hit a 3 above the break (he did shoot 50 percent from the corners last season, but on limited shots), is one of the NBA’s worst players around the rim and his percentages from the mid-range are worse than most semi-rangy big men.
Rubio has the potential to be a Jason Kidd-type player. The innovation he shows as a passer is amazing and he has great hands and real instinct for getting steals. However, he has to become some kind of threat on offense if he hopes to become the player Minnesota wants him to become.
Quick rant before we move on:
When negotiating Kevin Love‘s contract extension, Love felt so disrespected by Minnesota’s unwillingness to relent him a fifth year and max dollars that Love put an early out in his contract and may be out the door at the end of the 2014-15 season. Minnesota was unwilling to give Love the fifth year because they wanted to save their five-year contract for Ricky Rubio. Somewhat ironically, Rubio has done nothing to prove he is worth that type of commitment and Minnesota will probably enter talks with Rubio soon about a contract extension. Having to decide what type of commitment Rubio is worth — a player who has not proven he can score the basketball on the NBA level — will be even harder with Rubio’s agent know that five-year contract was set to the side just for him. In the fashion of Bill Simmons:
Tier Ten – “I was kind of an All-Star that one time.”
George Hill, 14.2 PPG, 44.3/36.8/81.7 splits, 4.7 APG, 22 AST$%, 3.06 AST/TO, 1.1 SPG
Jeremy Lin, 13.4 ppg, 44.1/33.9/78.5 splits, 6.1 APG, 29 .0 AST%, 2.11 AST/TO 1.6 SPG
Mo Williams, 12.9 PPG, 43/38.3/88.2 splits, 6.2 APG, 32.4 AST %, 2.28 AST/TO, 1 SPG
Raymond Felton, 13.9 PPG, 42.7/36/78.9 splits, 5.5 APG 26.0 AST%, 2.4 AST/TO, 1.4 SPG
Do you remember Linsanity? How about that time Mo Williams was an All-Star? Or the time the Spurs’ were shopping Tony Parker because they felt George Hill could step in and run the show in San Antonio? Anybody remember Felton’s first stint with the Knicks before Mike D’Antoni ran Amar’e Stoudemire into the ground one last time?
All four of these guys have fallen from their peak to certain degree, but are still perfectly serviceable starters on the right team and in the right system. Hill is never going to be a top distributor, or even an above average one, but his ability as a 3-point shooter and his top-notch ability to defend the point guard position will keep him a starter on one of the best team’s in the East for years to come. Lin has less stability going forward in Houston, where the Rockets are chock full of point guards who simulate a lot of what Jeremy Lin brings, while knocking down the 3 ball more consistently. That 3-point shot may very well be the Achilles heel that stops Lin from ever recreating the brilliance of Linsanity. He is good from a few spots on the floor, but overall is a average offensive threat at best. The same goes for his ability as a passer and he still has not fully gotten over his turnover problem.
Williams and Felton are a little further removed from their glory days than Hill and Lin are, but may still be more effective players than Lin at this point. Felton is actually very similar production-wise, only really trailing Lin marginally as a passer. Felton closes that gap though by being slightly better from the mid-range and being a real threat from beyond the arc. Williams actually appears to be second only to Hill in this group though — despite being the only one not projected to start next year. Williams was a few ticks better as a ball distributor last year than all three of the guards and was more efficient as a scorer tan Lin or Felton. Williams was good from 3, average in the paint and good from the mid-range around the top of the key area. Despite seeing less time, I would not be surprised if Williams was more productive as a backup in Portland than Lin and Felton are as starters in their own situations.
Tier Nine – Some of the tools, just not all of them
Kemba Walker, 17.7 PPG, 42.3/32.2/79.8 splits, 5.7 APG, 30.8 AST%, 2.36 AST/TO, 2.0 SPG
Brandon Jennings, 17.5 PPG, 39.9/37.5/81.9 splits, 6.5 APG, 29.6 AST%, 2.57 AST/TO, 1.6 SPG
Goran Dragic, 14.7 PPG, 44.3/31.9/74.8 splits, 7.4 APG, 34.4 AST%, 2.68 AST/TO, 1.6 SPG
Each of these is good in two or three areas but has that tragic flaw that holds them back from being among the NBA’s top point men. Dragic is a good assist man and slightly above average as scorer within the 3-point line — he has a good touch from a couple of mid-range spots and is a creative finisher around the rim. However his 3-point shoot and his turnstile-like defensive tendencies stop him from being a great point guard. Kemba Walker is not quite the distributor Dragic is, but seems to be improving as a volume shooter for Charlotte. His jump shot and outside game need work, but with a better supporting cast and continued development, Walker has the potential to improve as a point guard.
Jennings is probably the most interesting case. Despite popular belief, there are a lot of things Jennings does well as point guard. He is an average assist man, who can be above average if his role in the system allows it. He is good from 3 and good from a couple of spots in the mid-range area as well. Jennings’ shot selection tends to be his biggest setback to his offensive game, however. He will never be great around the rim — a product of his size — but if he can cut down on the tougher pull-up shots, he can be an effective NBA scorer. His defense will always be an issue, but Jennings can be an effective point guard if he works on his shot selection.
Tier Eight – The Tip of the Iceberg
Jeff Teague, 14.6 PPG, 45.1/35.9/88.1 splits, 7.2 APG, 34.8 AST%, 2.52 AST/TO, 1.5 SPG
Greivis Vasquez, 13.9 PPG, 43.3/34.2/80.5 splits, 9 APG, 43.2 AST%, 2.85 AST/TO, .8 SPG
Eric Bledsoe (per 36), 14.9 PPG, 44.5/39.7/79.1 splits, 5.4 APG, 24.9 AST%, 1.7 AST/TO 2.5 SPG
The emergence of Jeff Teague as a more effective point guard than Jennings kind of sneaked up on everybody. They were seen as equals for most of July; then all of sudden Atlanta inks Teague to a $32 million deal and Jennings is left making a portion of that. And you know what? Nobody questioned it. Teague is a more effective scorer — slightly worse from 3, but even from mid-range on better looks and much better around the rim — and is quite clearly a better distributor than Jennings. Teague also provides a little more on the defensive end than Jennings and overall is just a more stable bet than Jennings at this point.
The same holds true for Vasquez. He is one of the NBA’s five best ball distributor’s, though New Orleans’ offensive struggles may inflate his AST% greatness. Also despite his mediocre offensive numbers, he was good from the corners and the left wing shooting the 3 ball, was OK from a couple of spots around the paint and was above average from the mid-range. His defense leaves a lot to be desired, but he is a big plus on offense at this point in his career.
Bledsoe is the wild card here. Nobody has a real clue of what type of player Bledsoe will be with a full minutes load, but his athleticism projects him to be an absolute terror. He will have the benefit of splitting point guard duties with Dragic in Phoenix and I think that could give him time to find his way a scorer and distributor. He has already proven to be an absolute monster defensively, but he will have to learn to tone down his freelancing for the sake of remaining within his team’s particular defensive scheme.
Part Two, coming later in the week.