Denver Nuggets: The Timofey Mozgov Problem
Last season, Timofey Mozgov averaged 2.6 points and 2.6 rebounds per game in 8.9 minutes per game for the Denver Nuggets. Playing behind Kosta Koufos and JaVale McGee at the center position, the 7-footer displayed flashes (read: flash) of potential and it seemed like he could perform were he to be given more consistent minutes. So once the Nuggets decided to ship Koufos to the Memphis Grizzlies for power forward Darrell Arthur, it makes sense that Denver opted to resign Mozgov to a three-year, $14 million deal as McGee’s backup.
What’s that? You say they had already signed free agent J.J. Hickson, too? Well, there goes that theory. Mozgov’s new contract doesn’t exactly add up because of his per game numbers either. So why on earth would Denver give a minimal-production guy a deal worth $14 million, even if it is spread out over three years? Is that much money worth a third-string big man who will be competing with Hickson for minutes?
In my book, probably not. But then again, people forget (or never knew in the first place) that Mozgov was projected to be the starter for the Nuggets entering the 2012-13 season. It wasn’t long before that he had a terrific Olympics performance with Russia that resulted in a bronze medal and it seemed like it was his time to finally get some major PT. But then Koufos impressed former coach George Karl in training camp and with Denver’s management was constantly badgering its head coach to play McGee more, poor Mozgov was relegated to third-string duties.
You’re probably asking yourself, why is any of this important? Why should I care about the likely backup to another backup center? Simply put, because Timofey Mozgov and his re-signing with Denver demonstrates the major problem that Brian Shaw will have to deal with in his first year as an NBA head coach: Distributing minutes between 15 quality players on the roster. Only 12 are allowed to suit up each game, but that makes the problem even more prevalent. Take a quick look at the Nuggets’ current roster. Although Julyan Stone has since moved on to the Toronto Raptors, there are still 17(!) players listed and Denver has to cut it to 15 for the start of a new season.
I’ve already graded Denver’s offseason moves and written at length about how the Nuggets’ offseason has been as tragic as the Red Wedding in “Game of Thrones.” But whether you like their moves or not, the Nuggets have been pretty busy lately. To keep a running tally, they’ve traded for Arthur, signed Hickson, added Nate Robinson and acquired Randy Foye in the Andre Iguodala sign-and-trade. Not to mention they picked up Erick Green and Joffrey Lauvergne in this year’s draft (FOOTNOTE: You see! The Denver Nuggets-Game of Thrones similarities continue! They even have a Joffrey!).
So at this point, here are the 13 players that are pretty much locks to make the final 15-man roster:
Starters: Ty Lawson, Randy Foye, Wilson Chandler, Kenneth Faried, JaVale McGee
Bench: Nate Robinson, Andre Miller, Evan Fournier, J.J. Hickson, Darrell Arthur, TImofey Mozgov, Jordan Hamilton
Injured Reserve: Danilo Gallinari
That leaves Anthony Randolph, Quincy Miller, Joffrey Lauvergne and Erick Green to compete for the final few roster spots, although Lauvergne didn’t play with the Nuggets’ Summer League team and more than likely won’t be suiting up in Denver blue any time soon. But even so, there’s not too much disparity between the bench and the guys fighting for a roster spot (or between the starters and the bench, for that matter). Granted, that 15-man lineup isn’t exactly going to contend for a title anytime soon. But you can see that Shaw has a serious problem on his hands that could be an issue for a guy who’s going to be getting his feet wet for much of this season.
Managing players’ minutes and rotations is one of the more difficult things to do as a head coach in the NBA. Just ask Vinny Del Negro, whose inconsistent and sometimes baffling rotations led to the Los Angeles Clippers’ premature playoff demise two years straight. So as much as it’s great to have so many solid players available, there’s a lot of responsibility that goes with it, which is tough to put on a first-year coach and represents the main reason I think the Nuggets will be lucky to make the playoffs this year. That’s a better problem to have than waiting for Gallinari to return, losing Iggy or letting Corey Brewer and general manager Masai Ujiri walk, but it’s still concerning all the same.
So don’t get the wrong idea here; as much as Denver has a good problem in trying to find minutes for so many quality players, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re a contender in the West anymore. A lot of the press Denver’s getting this offseason has been doom and gloom pieces, and rightfully so. Any team that loses its coach, genius general manager and two starters (three if you include the injured Gallo) is not exactly going to be a lock to make the postseason, especially in the loaded Western Conference. No matter how much faith you have in Lawson to step up or McGee to be a competent starter, Denver won’t be anywhere near the 57-win juggernaut they were last season.
The pieces are still there for the Nuggets to be competitive in the future — Shaw as a promising coach, Lawson and Gallo as potential All-Stars and the same kind of consistent supporting cast Denver’s been known for these past few years. But for the 2013-14 season, this Timofey Mozgov problem of finding minutes for so many evenly balanced players will be a challenging start to Shaw’s tenure as the head coach of the Denver Nuggets. Last year, the Nuggets started off slow because they played 10 of their first 32 games at home. This year, the Nuggets will more than likely start off slow again, but this time it will be for a different reason: A new coach trying to get his bearings on how to find playing time for 12 capable players.