Los Angeles Lakers: Time To Say Goodbye To Kobe Bryant? (Part 2)

EDITOR’S NOTE: This is the second of a three-part series discussing why the Los Angeles Lakers should have entertained the idea of using their amnesty exemption on Kobe Bryant.

If you missed out on part one, you can read it here.

With that, let’s begin.

Kobe Bryant Is The King Of Clutch, Or Is He?

A few years ago, if you had asked a random group of fans what player they would want taking the final shot of a close game, you’d likely have heard one name more frequently than any other.

Kobe Bryant.

Henry Abbott reported that in 2011, 79 percent of all general managers gave this exact response.

One year later, however, general managers seemed to have changed their minds, but among many NBA fans, the faith in Kobe’s end-of-game shooting has remained constant.

Despite the belief that Kobe has been one of the best crunch-time players in the league, the numbers simply don’t support the narrative. In fact, based on Kobe’s field-goal percentage when the game is hanging in the balance, Kobe is far from the king of clutch.

The results[1], provided by Alok Pattani of ESPN’s Stats & Information, are shocking.

In situations where Kobe’s team is trailing by one or two points, or tied, in the final 24 seconds of regular-season and playoffs games since Kobe’s rookie year, Kobe has made only 36 of his 115 field goal attempts.

Let that sink in.

When the fate of the game is in Bryant’s hands, Kobe has shot an abysmal 31.3 percent, only 1.6 percent higher than the league average 29.7 percent (2038-for-6861). Since 1996, of the players that have taken at least 30 shot attempts in similar situations, 24 have shot a higher percentage than Bryant.

Surely the playoffs tell a different story, right? Kobe thrives under the big lights and hits the big shots when it matters the most, right?

In short, not so much.

In his playoff career, Bryant has converted on 25.9 percent (7-for-27) of his clutch shots.

Using data from Jordan Sams, writer for SBNation’s Liberty Ballers, take a look at how Kobe performs in the playoffs compared to the purported King of Choke, LeBron.

Final 24 Seconds (Playoffs Since 2000)

Final Minute (Playoffs Since 2000)

“Clutch[2]” (Playoffs Since 2000)

Look, we’ve all seen Kobe hit very clutch shots, some in important situations and it’s very possible you can remember a time where Kobe tore your heart out by ending your team with an unbelievable shot. I’m also well aware that proponents of the “eye test” are unlikely to buy what I’m selling, but when you look at the statistics, I’m not sure how you can defend Kobe’s as one of the best clutch shooters in the game. True, he has made a good amount of these kind of shots, but he’s missed nearly 70 percent of them that he’s taken.

Even if you think the “eye test” is a better method of assessing players, the last time your eyes ever saw Kobe hit a game-winner in the playoffs was 2008 against the Spurs where he made a shot with 23.9 seconds left, leading the Lakers to victory. Since then, Kobe has missed the last seven of his playoff game-winning shot attempts.

The previous discussions regarding Kobe’s value and clutch shooting have all assumed one key thing: that he is healthy.

But, I have bad news for Laker Nation…

Kobe Won’t Be Healthy

Reports out of L.A. regarding Kobe’s recovery have become increasingly positive.

I was skeptical about the existence of this so-called “MAMBA” medicine, so I did some research on Google and it turns out that it actually exists. That said I have trouble believing the real Mamba medicine, a paste given to malnourished Haitian children, is the same Mamba medicine Dr. Klapper is referring to.[3]

Perhaps what Dr. Klapper was referring to was Kobe’s mental fortitude and after watching Kobe go down with a ruptured Achilles, limp to the free-throw line and sink two free throws, the last thing I am going to do is question his willpower.

I have no doubt that Kobe is working harder than ever to recover and that he fully believes he will recover, but if that’s the case, he will be a medical anomaly. Again, I am not a medical expert[4], but people much more knowledgeable than I seem to share the sentiment that this injury isn’t just something an iron will can overcome.

According to a recent study[5] by Dr. Douglas L. Cerynik of Drexel University, from 1988-2011, 18 NBA players suffered a tendon rupture similar to Kobe’s and seven of those athletes never played another game. For the 11 players that did return, only eight of them played for more than two seasons and among those eight, there was a significant decrease in their overall production.

Those who believe Kobe can make a full recovery cite Dominique Wilkins as an example of an elite player, like Kobe, who was able to return to form after this injury. At the age of 32, Wilkins ruptured his Achilles, but averaged 30 points the subsequent season and continued to play like an All-Star for several more years. This is an encouraging example for Kobe supporters.

Except, not really.

Wilkins was close to Kobe’s age at the time of his injury, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Prior to his injury, Wilkins had played in 837 games throughout 10 seasons, racking up 27,482 minutes between the regular season and playoffs. Kobe will be entering his 18th season in the league next year having played in 385 more NBA games than Wilkins played in … during his entire NBA career (1,459 games/54,041 minutes).

Kyle Wagner of Deadspin provides an excellent metaphor to help one grasp the devastating nature of Bryant’s injury.

“ Kobe’s injury is a third-degree tear, which means that his tendon has completely ruptured. Think a rubber band; an Achilles with a minimal to moderate tear is like a rubber band with a nick in it that’s still mostly holding together; an Achilles with a third-degree tear is a rubber band that snapped in two and is flopping uselessly around.”

If you think Kobe is doing anything besides working every day to get better, then you don’t know Kobe[6]. We can give Kobe the benefit of the doubt as much as we want, but the fact of the matter is: Kobe suffered a destructive injury, one that has ended the careers of players, on a body that’s played more minutes than any other active NBA player sans Kevin Garnett.

It’s possible that Bryant will return from this injury and be able to produce at a relatively decent level, but even when Bryant was at his best, his production did not match the value of his contract.

In light of this, it’s hard to comprehend why the Lakers would accept paying Kobe the amount of money he is set to make next season, but in the words of the great Oscar Wilde:

“Memory is the diary we all carry about with us.”

For the Lakers, this diary is about to cost them $30 million dollars.

Be sure to check back tomorrow for the third, and final, installment of this series, which will cover how the fans would have reacted to Kobe being amnestied and the potential damage keeping Kobe may cause for L.A.’s rebuilding efforts.

[1] The data provided here accounts for all “clutch” shots from 1996 through the middle of the 2011 season.

[2] “the shots that occur during the 4th quarter or overtime, with less than five minutes remaining, and neither team ahead by more than five points”

[3] Granted, Kobe is known for using incredibly interesting techniques to help himself heal, but I’d imagine getting your blood spun in Germany has much more to offer an NBA player than ready-to-eat, nutrient packed paste.

[4] Unless reading the label on the Tylenol bottle as a 7-year-old in an attempt to figure out what dosage I can take to relieve myself of a headache counts as medical expertise.

[5] “Performance Outcomes After Repair Of Complete Achilles Tendon Ruptures in National Basketball Association Players”, Am. J. Sports Med., June 3, 2013

[6] I’m not sure Kobe would even know how to spend his time without basketball.