Houston Rockets: 2013-14 Roster Preview

To say this offseason has been an eventful one for the Rockets would be quite the understatement.

The last time this much buzz surrounded the Rockets free agency was prior to the 2004-05 season when former two-time scoring champion Tracy McGrady came to Houston. Unfortunately for Rockets fans, McGrady, later joined by Yao Ming, was never able to lead Houston to a title.

With two new superstars in tow, the Rockets have a different outcome in mind this time around.

Let’s take a look at the 2013-14 Houston Rockets.

Point Guard

At the moment, it appears as if Jeremy Lin will return as the starting point guard next season. Although there have been a plethora of rumors regarding possible trades involving Lin, Rockets general manager Daryl Morey has done his best to squash them.

Is this just posturing? Perhaps.

However, it’s very unlikely Houston will find a bidder for Lin, so it’s reasonable to assume he will return.

Expectations are high, but can Lin continue to improve?

Last season, Line started every game for the Rockets and averaged 13.4 points, 6.1 assists, 3.0 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game, while shooting 44.1 percent from the field. Unfortunately, for Lin, expectations regarding his production might have been set a bit too high. When Linsanity swept the nation, the world watched in awe as a young, undrafted point guard out of Harvard[1] took over a Carmelo Anthony-less Knicks team and played at an unbelievable level.

While Linsanity was great for Lin because it helped make him enough money to no longer have to sleep on Landry Fields‘ couch, it also gave some the delusion he could produce at that level consistently.

In truth, Lin probably isn’t ever going to be the kind of point guard that averages 24.6 points and 9.2 assists, but that doesn’t mean he won’t suffice as a starting point guard in this league. If he can minimize his turnovers (2.9 per game last season), and become a better facilitator/perimeter shooter, he will play valuable minutes for Houston next season.

That being said, Lin seeing significant minutes next season is anything but guaranteed. Right now, the Rockets have three other guards behind Lin: Patrick Beverley, Aaron Brooks and Isaiah Canaan.

Patrick Beverley made a name for himself during the playoffs last year by stepping up when Lin went down with a shoulder injury. For Oklahoma City Thunder fans, Beverley’s name evokes a certain disdain thanks to this play,

but for Rockets fans, Beverley is a scrappy, athletic point guard who gives 100 percent when he’s on the court.

Although he only saw limited minutes during the regular season, in his six playoff games, Beverley averaged 11.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.2 steals while playing 33 minutes per game. Beverley is a decent offensive player, solid enough to not be a liability for the Rockets offense when he is in for Lin, but his value defensively is what makes him a threat to take minutes from Lin.

According to Robert Mays of Grantland, when Beverley was on the floor last season, Houston allowed almost seven full points less per 100 possessions and when he was on the floor with Harden, the Rockets were two points better per 100 possessions than Lin/Harden. Houston also re-signed Aaron Brooks[2] and although Brooks will probably not see a lot of minutes off the bench, Brooks is a capable scorer and not a bad third-string point guard.

Whether or not the Rockets’ draft pick, Isaiah Canaan, will see much playing time remains to be seen. Canaan is a solid perimeter shooter and would fit into the Rockets system nicely. Nevertheless, given coach Kevin McHale’s preference for playing veterans over rookies, combined with the fact that the Rockets already have three other guards on their roster, Canaan will probably spend a lot of time in the D-League next season.

Shooting Guard

There isn’t much debate over who will be the Rockets’ starting shooting guard next season.

OK, there isn’t any debate. At all.

Coming off one of the best seasons of any NBA player, where he averaged 24.4 points, 5.5 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 1.7 steals, Harden will look to improve on last season’s numbers even more after being able to spend time with his young team throughout the summer.

The real debate is about who will fill Harden’s spot the few minutes he isn’t on the floor.

After his impressive stint in the playoffs, I expect that the veteran guard Francisco Garcia will see a decent amount of minutes.

Garcia averaged 10.7 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.5 assists while playing 27.3 minutes per game during the Rockets playoff series against the Thunder. On top of that, he shot an astounding 45.9 percent (17-for-37) from behind the arc.

In the rare situations where neither Harden nor Garcia are on the court, the undrafted guard out of Arkansas, B.J. Young, might see some playing time. Young recently signed a 3-year deal with the Rockets

and is currently the third shooting guard on their roster.

Young played four games for the Rockets’ Summer League team and during those games he averaged 11.8 points, 1.8 assists and 1.8 rebounds per game, while shooting 51.6 percent from the field.

Check out the scouting report on Young.

Small Forward

Chandler Parsons will likely be the starting small forward for the Rockets next season. I say “likely” because, after Patrick Patterson was traded to the Sacramento Kings last season, Parsons saw a considerable amount of minutes at power forward, as the stretch 4.

Last season, Parsons averaged 15.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. Parsons’ 3-point percentage jumped from 34 percent his rookie year to 38.5 percent last year and if he can continue to improve his shot, he could become a force to be reckoned with.

Parsons effective field goal percentage, a statistic that accounts for the simple fact that 3-point field goals count for one more point than 2-point field goals, was 56.4 percent, per Team Rankings, which was good for 10th-best in the league.

Parsons flashed a bit of what he is capable of when he helped the Rockets stave off elimination by claiming 27 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists in a Game 4 win against the Thunder.

In the cases where Parsons plays at the 4 or is on the bench, the Rockets have added Omri Casspi and Reggie Williams.

When Morey brought on these two players, he had one thing in mind: 3-point field goals.

In the two seasons where Casspi attempted more than 200 3-pointers, he shot 37 percent (167-for-450) from behind the arc. Although Williams didn’t see very much playing time with the Charlotte Bobcats, in his rookie season with the Golden State Warriors he averaged 15.2 points per game and the season after that he shot 42.3 percent (102-for-241) from 3.

Power Forward

The power forward spot is undoubtedly one of the biggest question marks for the Rockets at this point in time.

Depending on the role McHale wants his power forward to play the Rockets may choose to start the 21-year-old forward out of Kentucky, Terrence Jones. In four Summer League games, Jones averaged 15.8 points (42.2 percent shooting), 7.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.3 blocks.

Jones is an athletic player with decent ball-handling skills, which allows him to get to the rim pretty well. He’s not a great shooter from mid-range, but can hit that shot at a high enough percentage to keep defenses honest, which is a must with Howard on the court.

If McHale decides to go the small-ball route and play a shorter, less physical shooter at the 4 (as he did with Parsons last season), we may see more playing time for Donatas Motiejunes and the young forward from Tennessee State, Robert Covington.

Robert Covington, although going undrafted, signed a two-year deal with the Rockets prior to the start of Summer League. In his four seasons at Tennessee State, Covington shot 41.6 percent from long-distance. During Summer League, Covington averaged 12.4 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.2 assists, and in the Summer League Finals game he scored 21 points, grabbed five rebounds and claimed four steals.

If the Rockets’ current depth chart is any indication, Houston will see a substantial amount of minutes with lineups consisting of four shooters on the floor.

Center

With the acquisition of Dwight Howard, the Rockets lineup now boasts two of the most formidable big men in the game.

After Howard’s one season with the Los Angeles Lakers, in which he saw a decrease in his points and rebounds per game, many have rushed to claim that the dominant Howard of old is dead and that his effect on a locker room makes him more of a liability than a benefit.

Call me a homer, biased, whatever, but I tend to disagree.

I don’t think Howard will definitely return to his pre-L.A./injury form where he produced 20.6 points and 14.5 rebounds, but given the change of scenery and time to fully recover, I think he has the potential to prove he is still the league’s most commanding center.

The Rockets were the third-best pick-and-roll team in the league last season and Howard has consistently been one of the best big men in pick-and-roll situations.

Thanks to former Orlando Magic coach Stan Van Gundy, who I blame for stunting Howard’s growth as a post player, Howard has quite a bit of work to do in regards to developing post moves down low. Fortunately, he will be working with two of the best post players in the history of the NBA, Kevin McHale and Hakeem Olajuwon.

One thing Howard will also bring to Houston, which Rockets fans have not seen from a center in quite some time[3]: thunderous alley-oops.

What remains to be seen is how McHale will elect to use Omer Asik.

Asik was one of the best defensive centers last season, displaying an excellent ability to affect shots at the rim without fouling. When Asik was on the court, the Rockets outscored their opponents by 6.3 points.

The problem with Howard and Asik sharing the floor is that they operate in the same, small amount of space.

Neither Howard nor Asik have any semblance of a jump shot, rendering them virtually useless more than five feet away from the basket. While the two of them have the potential to form one of the most intimidating defensive duos, whether or not they can jell offensively will be decisive for the Rockets in determining how to employ Asik.

With the addition of Dwight Howard, along with a number of long-range threats, the Rockets will start next season with one of the most threatening offenses in the league. While some questions remain and will probably only be answered once the season starts, Houston is very hopeful that this is the team that will lead them to their first NBA championship since 1995.

[1] Lin is the first NBA player from Harvard since Ed Smith in 1954

[2] Third times a charm?

[3] I’m not really sure Asik can jump, and it’s not Chuck Hayes’ fault he was a 6’6” center.