Dallas Mavericks Sign Monta Ellis: One Team’s Trash Is Another’s Treasure
When one sees the announcement of “The Dallas Mavericks Sign Monta Ellis“, the first emotion felt likely isn’t approval. There’s a reason why other teams picked up their guards while Ellis was still in the free agent showcase, waiting to be selected. He’s garnered a bad reputation as a chucker and many don’t feel he’s worth the three-year, $30 million that the Mavericks have given him. Are they right or have we forgotten how good Ellis has been (and can be)?
There are some reasonable questions floating around. If Ellis is so good, how has he never managed to make an All-Star team? If Ellis is such a stud, why hasn’t he found a place on the All-NBA team? Is Ellis an upgrade over a turnstile defensively? How can a guy with a career 16.8 PER be considered anything better than mediocre?
Those are valid questions. Ellis has never been a very efficient player. Although his defensive metrics stand up well, a large part of that is due to Larry Sanders helping out. Will Ellis prove to be a diamond in the proverbial rough? Can coach Rick Carlisle and his staff turn Ellis into an All-Star in 2013-14?
Before we get into that, let’s look at what Ellis is. Ellis is a volume guy who can score in bunches. Let’s not forget that Ellis put together these back-to-back seasons with the Golden State Warriors from 2009-11:
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/14/2013.
You don’t find many players who can score 24 points with five assists and two steals per game. In fact, the list of players who have done it twice in their careers reads like a Hall of Fame ballot:
Rick Barry
Clyde Drexler
Allen Iverson
Michael Jordan
Dwyane Wade
Monta Ellis
Monta Ellis won’t have the same pressures in Dallas. (Flickr.com photo by IsoSports)
Now, I hear the naysayers pointing to the fact that those teams were special. Those Warriors teams played at a frenetic pace that allowed for those inflated numbers. I also hear them pointing out that Ellis was 24 then and will be 28 at the start of the 2013-14 season.
Both are excellent points, but riddle me this — are the Mavericks going to play a slow, plodding pace with Jose Calderon and Ellis in the backcourt? Absolutely not.
As far as the age is concerned, Ellis is coming off of a 2012-13 season in which he was No. 3 in the NBA in minutes played (3,076). He started all 82 games for the Bucks and put up his best shooting line (.480/.371/.788) in a 16-game stretch in March. Ellis and his legs are not a problem.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t talk about how we can see both the best and the worst of Ellis in a very short period. He won the Player of the Week award on December 24, 2012. He earned it by putting up averages of 32 points, 4.5 rebounds, five assists and three steals for the week. The game before the week started? He scored four points on 1-of-14 shooting with just two rebounds and two assists.
Ellis can definitely turn it on when need be, but there’s so little consistency. Take a look at the last four full games of his 2012-13 season (all Bucks losses):
| Rk | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 47:11 | 7 | 27 | .259 | 1 | 8 | .125 | 6 | 10 | .600 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 21 |
| 79 | 44:12 | 9 | 23 | .391 | 5 | 9 | .556 | 4 | 5 | .800 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 27 |
| 80 | 30:08 | 7 | 18 | .389 | 1 | 5 | .200 | 1 | 2 | .500 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 81 | 36:04 | 14 | 25 | .560 | 6 | 11 | .545 | 4 | 5 | .800 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 38 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/13/2013.
Now look at his playoff logs (also all Bucks losses):
| Rk | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38:34 | 10 | 19 | .526 | 1 | 6 | .167 | 1 | 6 | .167 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 |
| 2 | 34:27 | 2 | 7 | .286 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 3 | 4 | .750 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | 39:36 | 2 | 9 | .222 | 1 | 6 | .167 | 2 | 4 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | 39:06 | 10 | 20 | .500 | 1 | 4 | .250 | 0 | 2 | .000 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 21 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/13/2013.
The inconsistency is startling. Was it because of bad coaching? Was it because Ellis had to play beside Brandon Jennings, who is extremely similar as a player at this point?
Ellis is bringing his bag of goodies to Dallas, where coach Carlisle is one of the best and most respected coaches in all of the NBA. Ellis will get to play next to a guard that complements his skills for the first time in Calderon, instead of one that duplicates, like Jennings or Stephen Curry.
Nowitzki is still going to be driving the car, but for better or worse, they’re going to let Ellis sit shotgun. The pressure won’t be squarely on Ellis’ shoulders to produce offensively, which means he’ll be able to play freely. Will he surprise us and average 24 points per game since he won’t be tasked with point guard duties? Yes he will. Get prepared to see shades of the late 2000’s Warriors this year in Dallas.