The NBA offseason has become an all-out arms race during the free agency period. Despite the best efforts of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement to limit player movement and put teams in a position to keep their franchise players, it seems every opening night, the entire landscape of the league has been dramatically shifted. This year should be no different, with big names at every position available for the right price. Here’s a look at the top 10 on the board.
-Center, Los Angeles Lakers
-Age: 27
-Expected Deal: Max. Five years, $100 million should he stay in Los Angeles. Roughly four years, $80 million should he leave.
-Possible Suitors: Los Angeles Lakers, Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, Atlanta Hawks
-Red Flags: Dwight Howard underwent back surgery to wrap up a tumultuous 2011-2012 campaign for the Orlando Magic that was surrounded by constant trade chatter and eventually tore apart the franchise in Disney, at least for the foreseeable future. After being traded to Los Angeles to play with Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, Dwight simply wasn’t the same player. Despite managing to post stats as good as any center in the NBA (17.1 points, a league leading 12.4 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks per game) he wasn’t quite the defensive game wrecker we came to know throughout the first chapter of his NBA career. He played through a torn labrum and may have been hampered by lingering back issues from the surgery, but will that back trouble ever go away? Have we seen the best of Dwight Howard, or will he return to form and become the dominant force he once was?
-Outlook: Despite the injury question marks and the quirky personality issues, Dwight Howard remains the prize of this year’s free agency. We’ve seen it throughout the playoffs: despite the “positionless” renaissance taking place in Miami, size still matters. And when healthy, Dwight is the best big man in the game. Will he ever make a decision on where he wants to be?
(NBA.com photo)
2. Chris Paul
-Point Guard, Los Angeles Clippers
-Age: 28
-Expected Deal: Max. Five years, $100 million should he stay in Los Angeles. Roughly four years, $80 million should he leave.
-Possible Suitors: Los Angeles Clippers, Dallas Mavericks, Atlanta Hawks
-Red Flags: The narrative on Chris Paul is becoming extremely interesting. Some consider him a top five player in the NBA. But if that’s the case, why can’t his teams go deep into the post-season? After another first round exit, Paul still has never sniffed the conference finals. With the point guard position now as deep and talented as ever, is it worth it to sink max money into a guy like CP3? Can you win a championship if he is your best player?
-Outlook: This is still the best point guard in the NBA. He was one of the leaders in the Olympics for team USA and he is the first player to ever make the Clippers relevant, so they will do everything in their power to keep him. As a player who relies more on craftiness than athleticism, I’d expect another decade of dominance at the point guard position from the Wake Forrest product. L.A.’s “other team” will not let him go easily.
(NBA.com photo)
3. Josh Smith
-Forward, Atlanta Hawks
-Age: 27
-Expected Deal: in the five year, $75 million range should he stay in Atlanta, four years, $60 million should he leave
-Possible Suitors: Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets
-Red Flags: Josh Smith is a talented enigma. Is he a franchise guy, or just a really talented role player? Will he ever take his game to the next level by improving his shot selection? And also, Smith can be one of the best defending forwards at either spot in the NBA when properly motivated. Will we ever see that on a nightly basis?
-Outlook: In terms of pure talent and athleticism, Josh Smith has few peers. At 6’9″, he is capable of playing either forward spot while possessing the handle of a guard and dunk-contest level hops. He is the type of player that can ignite a crowd with a big play, or make a coach pull his hair out with an eye-brow raising contested three early in the shot clock. With the right coach and the right situation, the sky is the limit for him, and that’s why he is number three on this list. Atlanta had the opportunity to trade him at the deadline and elected not to. will they look to resign him?
Photo: Mark Runyon, Basketball Schedule
4. David West
-Power Forward, Indiana Pacers
-Age: 32
-Expected Deal: Three years, $36 million
-Possible Suitors: Indiana Pacers, Dallas Mavericks
-Red Flags: Not many. David West is now over a year removed from ACL surgery, and it if the 2013 NBA playoffs were any indication, West has recovered completely and is back to playing at an extremely high level. His advanced age may be a concern for some when considering the pounding he takes on a nightly basis.
-Outlook: David West is a classic banger with the ability to punish small ball power forwards and space the floor with a 17 foot jumper. He was big time, money in the bank good against the Knicks in the conference semifinals this past season and he was a key component in Indiana’s near upset of the mighty Miami Heat in the conference finals. For teams in the market for a power forward with big game experience, David West is best in class this off-season.
Photo Credit: Keith Allison, Flickr.com
5. Andrew Bynum
-Center, Philadelphia 76ers
-Age: 25
-Expected Deal: Max (yeah.) Five years, $100 million to stay in Philly. Four years, $80 million elsewhere.
-Possible Suitors: Philadelphia 76ers, Dallas Mavericks
Red Flags: Simply put, the biggest risk in free-agency. Is Andrew Bynum damaged goods? The talented 7 footer has been the anchor in the middle on two championship teams in L.A., but he has never played more than 65 games in a season and missed his entire first year campaign in Philly after needing surgery on both(!) knees. Bynum, when healthy, was considered a top two NBA center as recently as two seasons ago. Will he ever make it through the grind of an 82 game season? Or will his career be cut short do to chronic knee problems?
Outlook: The Philly front office traded their franchise player, Andre Iguodala, in order to acquire a player who hasn’t played a game for them and is now an unrestricted free-agent. We know what Bynum can do if he is healthy. Are the 76ers too invested in this to let the big man walk? Again, size matters. Someone is going to gamble and pay him based on sheer potential alone. But will Andrew Bynum ever deliver on his immense promise?
Photo Credit: NBA.com
-Point Guard: Milwaukee Bucks (restricted)
-Age: 23
-Expected Deal: Four years, $40 million
-Possible Suitors: Milwaukee Bucks, Dallas Mavericks, Atlanta Hawks
-Red Flags: Brandon Jennings is the only restricted free-agent on the list due to the fact that it is believed the Bucks may not bring him back (instead preferring someone else on this list). We know Jennings can score, but will the 6’1″ point guard ever become the playmaker teams need at the point guard position? He is a unique talent, no doubt. But Brandon Jennings is a volume scorer with inefficient shooting percentages who is pigeon-holed into the point guard position because of his lack of size. Can an NBA team win with a player like that being a key component to a roster?
-Outlook: Jennings is still just 23, and he can fill it up. If he can work on improving shot selection and becoming a better playmaker, it stands to reason that he can succeed in the right situation. It looks like that won’t happen in Milwaukee, unless something changes.
(NBA.com photo)
7. Paul Millsap
-Power Forward, Utah Jazz
-Age: 28
-Expected Deal: Three years, $33 million
-Possible Suitors: Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Atlanta Hawks
-Red Flags: Millsap is a model citizen and an extremely underrated, two way player who can fit into basically any system. The red flags here are few and far between. But at 6’8″ on a good day, he is a bit undersized for the power forward position and not nearly quick enough to be considered a three, making him your classic “tweener.”
-Outlook: Due to the youth movement in Utah, Millsap is a virtual certainty to change hands this off-season. The Boston Celtics are believed to be interested, and he might be a nice piece to retool for one final run with Kevin Garnett and company around. Milsap does a lot of things well. He is a solid defensive player and can consistently knock down a mid-range shot, he’ll likely make a contender somewhere very happy at the end of the day.
Photo Credit: nikk_la, Flickr.com
8. Monta Ellis
-Combo guard, Milwaukee Bucks
-Age: 27
-Expected Deal: Four years, $32 million
-Possible Suitors: Milwaukee Bucks, Dallas Mavericks
-Red Flags: You know what you’re getting into when you invest in a player like Monta Ellis. He can score in bunches and take over a games. The problem is, he will shoot you out of games as well and he isn’t exactly well known for his defensive chops. Also, Monta has never really played on a team that has done any post-season damage. Is that a coincidence? Ellis isn’t the franchise player Golden State thought he was, so he’ll have to live with getting a pay cut. At age 27, how will he handle that?
-Outlook: The Milwaukee Bucks appear to be making Monta Ellis a priority, preferring him over they younger but slightly more volatile Brandon Jennings. Expect him to resign with his current club. Is this the right move for the Bucks? For Ellis?
(NBA.com photo)
9. Jarrett Jack
-Point Guard, Golden State Warriors
-Age: 29
-Expected Deal: Four Years, $25 million
-Possible Suitors: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors
-Red Flags: Jarrett Jack will undoubtedly earn a bigger role next season should he elect to leave the Warriors. But he has been a journeyman for a reason. With greater expectations, can Jack have the huge impact he had last season backing up Steph Curry as a super-sub in Golden State?
-Outlook: He didn’t win Sixth Man of the Year, but Jack was probably the most important reserve in the NBA last season. His calming presence and incredibly clutch shooting, particularly in the playoffs, helped keep the young Golden State Warriors on track all year. With Steph Curry’s ankle always a question mark, Golden State would love to have him back as insurance. It’ll be interesting to see how much they are willing to pay him.
(NBA.com photo)
10. J.R. Smith
-Shooting Guard, New York Knicks
-Age: 27
Expected Deal: In excess of $2.8 million annually. That’s why he opted out.
-Suitors: New York Knicks, ?
Red Flags: Where do we start? On the court, his shot selection varies from “suspect” to “borderline ludicrous”. Defensively, effort constantly comes into question. The reigning Sixth Man of the Year carried the Knicks at times last season, but shot below 30 percent in the post-season. You have to wonder if his basketball IQ will ever reach a passable level at this point. Off the court? Rumors of clubbing with celebrities the night before games ran rampant in the playoffs after an incident-free regular season. And who can forget the “all-black” funeral gag against the Celtics in game four of they first round?
Outlook: As madding as J.R. can be, fact is he was the second best player on the New York Knicks last season. They’ll do everything they can to resign him. And after his abysmal showing in the playoffs, how high with the bar realistically be set? J.R. played his best basketball last season in New York, but due to financial restrictions, if a team makes a strong enough bid, he may be on his way out the door.