2013 NBA Playoffs: Keys to Game 7 for the Heat and Pacers

Game 7.

It’s one of the most simultaneously exciting and ominous terms in all of sports. Hearing that special sports phrase evokes a tingling feeling of hope and fear in fans, anticipation in viewers and a sense of the moment in players. The most dramatic stage in the NBA is a Game 7 and after the magnificent series the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers have given us, there’s a very good chance we’re in for something special Monday night, June 3. So before the Eastern Conference Finals come to an end, here are the keys for each team to winning the right to meet the San Antonio Spurs in the Finals.

Controlling the boards – Indiana has out-rebounded Miami by a 262-201 margin in the series and a 141-95 margin in their victories. Although everyone recognizes that Paul George is breaking out as a star in this league, Roy Hibbert and David West have dominated the boards. George and Lance Stephenson have also done their jobs in the rebounding department. I fully expect the Pacers to continue to control this aspect of the game (since they’ve basically out-rebounded Miami by an average of 10 boards per game), but when the Heat are at least semi-close in this department, Indiana hasn’t been able to win. If the Pacers want to shock the world, they have to not only win the rebounding battle, but dominate it.

Interior scoring for the Pacers – Like I said, Roy Hibbert is not getting enough credit as Indiana’s MVP in this series. Paul George has been spectacular at times (just ask Chris Andersen), but Miami has had absolutely no answer for Hibbert in the paint. As Shaquille O’Neal has said about 100 times already, Hibbert is fully capable of devastating Miami when he decides to “jump hook ’em to death!” For Indiana to have a chance in this game, Hibbert and West have to continue to be the foundation of the team’s offense. Even better, they need to pass effectively out of Miami’s dangerous double team and look for open shooters.

The points in the paint battle – This is somewhat related to the last one, but here’s a fact that has to be touched on: In every game of this series, the winning team has won or at least tied in the battle for points in the paint. EVERY. SINGLE. GAME. If the Pacers can get Hibbert and West good looks in the paint, the Heat have no one that can stop them. If LeBron James and Dwyane Wade can attack the basket and get to the rim, Indiana will have a hard time keeping up with a team that has more offensive weapons (on paper, at least). Another quick tangent: Indiana will fall apart if Miami finds some way to attack the basket and subsequently get Hibbert in foul trouble.

Wild cards – We all know LeBron James is going to do everything in his power to carry his team to its third consecutive NBA Finals appearance. Whether or not he gets any help may be the difference though. Twice, Udonis Haslem has been a key contributor, shooing 8-of-9 from the field both times. Ray Allen has all but disappeared offensively. Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade’s inefficiencies are even more unforgivable. Birdman’s absence from Game 6 was notable. We have an interesting subplot on our hands with Wade saying he needs more touches on offense (despite shooting an ugly 3-for-11 from the floor in Game 6). If Miami’s chemistry is affected by the implication that LeBron is trying to score too much, the Pacers could very much take advantage. Mario Chalmers has been fairly productive, but the Heat could really use a lot of 3-pointers from their role players out of LeBron James double teams.

On Indiana’s side of the coin, the Pacers absolutely need George Hill and Lance Stephenson to play well. Coach Frank Vogel has said that Stephenson is the barometer of the team in this series: When he’s wonderfully wreaking havoc on the game and scoring a decent amount, the Pacers are easily the better team. George Hill had a tremendous Game 6 after disappearing in Game 5. Hibbert and West will consistently get good looks against Miami’s weak frontcourt, but Hill and Stephenson need to step up to steal Game 7 on the road.

Wade and Bosh – It’s no secret that Wade and Bosh haven’t been doing their part in living up to the “Big Three” moniker that runs rampant in the NBA these days. Wade is averaging 14.5 points, 4.8 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game in the Eastern Conference Finals after posting 21.2 points, 5.1 assists and 5.0 rebounds per game during the regular season. Chris Bosh is averaging a nearly nonexistent 11.3 points and 3.7 rebounds per game in the series, getting absolutely dominated by Hibbert and West. Bosh needs to hit his perimeter jumper to spread out the Pacers’ D and Wade needs to be more assertive on the offensive end to back his talk up.

Foul Trouble and Officiating – Look, everyone has a differing opinion on how bad the NBA officials have been during the postseason. From giving in to numerous flopping offenses to fouling out LeBron James in a critical stretch, Twitter may explode for Game 7 if a critical call affects the outcome of the game. As a rule of principle, any time you notice the referees in a great basketball game, the referees probably aren’t doing their jobs right. So it has to be said: The fact that Joey Crawford is refereeing a critical Game 7 is a very dangerous thing, considering the fact that Crawford makes EVERY game about him instead of the players. I never like to blame the outcome of a game on the officials, because I think most fans just use that angle to justify their own team’s defeat. But I truly hope we aren’t robbed of letting the players decide the outcome, but who benefits from what call really could be a factor with Crawford being involved.

LeBron James – I know I already said that the Heat will win if LeBron James gets help, but the fact of the matter is, sometimes a transcendent player can take over a game all by himself. The Detroit Pistons saw it when he was with the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 5 of the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals. The Boston Celtics saw it in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals last year. And Indiana got a taste of it during the third quarter of Game 5. If he decides to be Game 2 LeBron down the stretch and turns the ball over a lot as he’s done at times in this series, this will be another tight game. But if LeBron decides to be the best (active) basketball player on the face of the earth like he’s fully capable of being, it will take a monumental effort from the young Pacers to win a pressure-filled Game 7 on the road.