The Golden State Warriors are hardly disappointed with a 2012-13 campaign that saw them two wins away from advancing to the Western Conference Finals. Plus, their future is among the brightest in the NBA with the core of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes intact.
Everything seems rosy. But, like every team, they have room to improve.
The Warriors’ improvements may grow bigger if Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry are lured into bigger roles with more money. Both, specifically Jack, seem to have a mutual interest in remaining in Oakland, but money is a powerful tool, folks.
Money is also a thing the Warriors are short on with their payroll in line to surpass the luxury tax. So, the improvements will likely have to be internal.
Let’s take a look:
Limit Second-Chance Points
The Warriors improved their rebounding vastly in 2012-13, improving their rebounding differential to plus-2.3. By comparison, they had a minus-6.6 differential in 2011-12, which was the worst mark in the league. That’s a good first step.
But they still have one more step to make–permitting teeming amounts of offensive rebounds, which lead to second-chance points. Per NBA.com/stats, Golden State allowed the seventh-most second chance points in the league and 18th-most offensive rebounds.
The Warriors don’t have an intimidating front court. While David Lee’s rebounding numbers (11.2 per game in 2012-13) are solid, that’s without context. His pronounced rebounding totals are more of a product of a lack of competition.
Andrew Bogut, when healthy, is threat, but the lingering effects of his wobbly elbow and fragile ankles still hamper him from time to time. When he returned on Jan. 28 after missing 38 games beginning on Nov. 8, the Warriors went from averaging 11.7 offensive rebounds per game to 10.5. Further, they went from averaging 14.8 second-chance points (third-most in the league at the time) to yielding only 12.9 (13th)
So, a full season of Bogut could be the simple fix. The stats can surely attest to that. But the likelihood of that happening is severely low, and with Carl Landry likely to opt out of his $4 million player option, the Warriors’ front court be weakened even more.
Careless Play
The Warriors like to shoot the ball. I know it. You know it. Everyone knows it. Yes, even the casual basketball fan could eventually jump to that conclusion. But, as we all know by now, rapid fire 3-point shooting isn’t a foolproof approach and it increases the chances of easy points for the opposing team.
That was precisely one of Golden State’s underlying problems in 2012-13, as they yielded 17.3 points off turnovers, the seventh-highest total in the NBA.
Now, the Warriors’ heavy diet of 3-pointers does have its many perks, many of which were on display during their playoff run. However, swinging the ball around the perimeter through penetration is an easy way to feed a team easy points. Sure, Stephen Curry usually created his own shots, which didn’t require a ton of ball movement, but when he was trapped, well, that’s where the problems surfaced.
Pick and rolls were also a problem. Curry, while a lethal shooting threat, did make his fair share of bad decisions in pick and rolls. He often tried to force passes where there simply wasn’t an opening or to the wrong man–for instance, Festus Ezeli. His hands are rock hard, but Curry continued to feed him tough passes. Same goes for Jarrett Jack–see Game 3 of Round 2, except he tried to force the issue with unnecessary penetration.
Consistency From the Youngsters
I’m talking about Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes, of course. Contributions from Curry and David Lee are expected, but contributions from Thompson and Barnes are not surplus, but they aren’t as consistent.
For example, Thompson averaged 18.4 points when the Warriors won, but 14.1 when they lost. That’s a large disparity and sheds some light on Thompson’s value.
Barnes’ production is closer to surplus than Thompson’ production, but as he garners more experience, that will change. His production will become a commonplace, much like it did during the playoffs.
The point is, Thompson’s shooting is going to naturally cause some inconsistency. If he penetrates more, that will be offset. Barnes, meanwhile, needs to be a tad more aggressive throughout the season. Obviously, Lee’s injury enabled him to have a green light, but his role in the playoffs may serve as a bit of insight into the future.