Indiana Pacers: Why They Can Upset The Miami Heat

The Indiana Pacers weren’t exactly favorites heading into the Eastern Conference Finals. Despite being one of only two teams to sport a winning record against the Heat this season (the New York Knicks were the other), most experts, or anyone in their right mind for that matter, picked Miami to win in five or six games.

Just look at ESPN’s experts predicting the series. Only five of the 20 experts have this series going a full seven games and not a single one picked against LeBron James and Co. And really, I can’t say that I blame them. When a player has a season like LeBron just had while being surrounded by one of the league’s greatest shooting guards, a skilled big man who can knock down perimeter shots and a host of shooters and good defenders, it makes sense that Indiana wasn’t getting a lot of love.

Last year, the Pacers were my dark horse in the East from the beginning of the season. So when they gave a Bosh-less Heat team everything it could handle in the conference semifinals, it was disappointing they couldn’t pull off the upset with Danny Granger sinking from the spotlight in the closing minutes of games, Paul George not quite ready to fulfill his potential and Roy Hibbert just being an all-around ninny. When we learned that Granger would be sidelined indefinitely at the start of the 2012-13 season, that disappointment turned into borderline depression. Here was a defensive team with budding stars bringing back the spirit of basketball in the sport’s motherland of Indiana for the first time since Ron Artest murdered it with the infamous Malice in the Palace. But the Pacers’ best player was out indefinitely, leaving their season in serious doubt. But here’s the thing: Defense always puts you in a position to win. Just ask Carmelo Anthony about it.

What I’m getting at is despite the fact that Danny Granger is still riding the bench and even though they don’t have a lot of star power in comparison, I’m not surprised in the slightest that the Pacers advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals or that they’ve tied the series with a hard-fought Game 2.

Here’s the kicker: Indiana should really be up 2-0 in this series. Yes, Paul George had to hit a ridiculous 3-pointer to send Game 1 to overtime, but consider the fact that the Pacers were two defensive collapses and one boneheaded coaching move away from eking out an opening victory. Not having Hibbert on the floor for two consecutive plays, both of which resulted in LeBron James layups, is something Frank Vogel and Pacer nation will have nightmares about all summer long should the Heat advance. And yes, LeBron’s speed in getting to the basket in 2.2 seconds was impressive, but Miami didn’t win that game down the stretch as much as Indiana lost it. The Pacers were in control for the majority of the game and collapsed for the final few plays. You’re not going to tell this was anything other than the easiest game-winner of LeBron’s entire career:

But guess what? Even though that demoralizing loss would normally hurt a weaker team’s morale and its ability to move on, the Pacers rebounded and stole a road win in another entertaining and tight Game 2. They’re now 3-2 against Miami this season. They play much better at home. And they know they can beat Miami now that they’ve seen it on the scoreboard. The Heat have been dominant in the postseason thus far, but who have they played? A 38-win Bucks team and Chicago’s second and third string? Winning eight of nine possible games against inferior teams with no shot of an upset doesn’t impress me. The Pacers’ interior defense and Roy Hibbert’s new-found offense impresses me. The matchup problems David West creates impress me. And Paul George’s superstar status rising higher than his Birdman posterization impresses me.

LeBron has been a force of nature in this series so far, averaging 33 points, nine rebounds, 6.5 assists, two blocks and 1.5 steals per game. But other than LeBron and Chris Bosh knocking down open perimeter looks, the Pacers have been the better all-around team. Miami’s shooters aren’t making their 3s. Dwyane Wade‘s numbers have been steady, but his impact has been marginal. And although the perception is rapidly becoming that this is really just “LeBron James vs. Paul George,” Indiana’s supporting cast has been better. As much as I’ve hammered Roy Hibbert for being soft and offensively inept this season, he’s dramatically turned things around at the perfect time–against a Heat team that has no answer on defense for talented centers–to really hurt Miami inside. I honestly can’t think of a better team to match up with the Heat: A defensive team that can create turnovers to make up for their own, led by a budding superstar no one was expecting, a 7-footer playing to his potential and a fierce power forward who doesn’t back down from anyone.

Speaking of David West, something has to be said about the matchup problems he creates because of his physicality; Bosh isn’t strong enough, Udonis Haslem and Chris Andersen have shown problems stopping him at times and LeBron, who has the reputation of being able to guard positions 1 through 5, gets worn down whenever he’s stuck defending West. And if LeBron does switch to West, the Heat still need someone to stick on the emerging superstar potential that is Paul George. Add all this to the ever-present threat of George Hill, Indiana’s contributing bench and Lance Stephenson‘s sometimes-helpful-sometimes-hurtful hustle and you get the formula for a potential upset.

Indiana has out-rebounded Miami by 12 in two games and they’ve shot a better percentage from 3-point range in both. They’ve made up for an ugly 33 turnovers by turning the Heat over 34 times. They’ve only given up 19 fast-break points and have responded with 18 of their own. Roy Hibbert is averaging 24 points, 9.5 rebounds and one block while shooting 58 percent from the floor. Paul George is posting 25.5 points and 5.5 assists while guarding the best player in the world all night. But most importantly, the Pacers’ defensive rotations have (mostly) been superb. In fact, the defensive rotations that caused the Game 1 collapse during its final plays were so improved that they caused two crucial LeBron James turnovers in Game 2’s final minute.

All of these trends have to continue for the Pacers to have any prayer of pulling off a monumental upset. And even if they do continue, there’s always the chance that Miami’s perimeter shooters wake up and bury Indiana’s defense like they did against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 5 of the Finals last year. I’m definitely not saying that betting against the Heat is a smart decision or that we should be expecting an Indiana victory. But I am saying you shouldn’t be shocked if it does happen, especially since the Pacers are 6-0 at home this postseason. And with Hibbert playing like he should have all season long, wildcards West and Stephenson making an impact and George playing phenomenal ball on both ends of the floor, it’s going to be hard for LeBron to carry the load without any help.