NBA Playoffs 2013: Breaking Down Eastern Conference Finals Matchups

The Eastern Conference Finals begin on Wednesday, May 22, in Miami. (Logo courtesy sportslogos.net)

In the blink of an eye, the 2013 NBA playoffs are down to the final four teams. The Eastern Conference Finals, which begin on Wednesday, May 22, feature the Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers.

While the Heat are favored to win not only this best-of-7 tilt, but also to repeat as NBA champions, there are some intriguing matchups that make the winner of this series not as easy to predict.

Here is a breakdown of the key performers for each team and who ultimately holds the advantage.

Likely Starting Lineups

Point Guard

Mario Chalmers (MIA) vs. George Hill (IND)

Hill has been more of a factor so far in the playoffs, averaging 15.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 4.4 assists in 36.9 minutes compared to the seven points, 2.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists the Heat are getting out of Chalmers in 26.6 minutes of action.

Even when their numbers are measured on a per 36-minutes basis, the scale still tilts toward Hill in terms of offensive production.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/21/2013.

Based on the table above, it is no surprise that Hill’s usage percentage of 20.7 is higher than that of Chalmers, who is estimated to have been used on 15.5 percent of his team’s plays on a per game basis during the 2013 NBA playoffs.

As such, Hill is likely to put more pressure on the defense during this series, although his role differs greatly from what is expected of Chalmers. With an offense that boasts LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, Chalmers has done his job if he moves the ball to the right spots on the court and knocks down the occasional 3-pointer.

Advantage: Overall, Hill will make more of an impact in this series.

Shooting Guard

Dwyane Wade (MIA) vs. Lance Stephenson (IND)

Wade excels at both ends of the court as he can score from almost anywhere and shows active hands on defense. Furthermore, Wade’s two NBA championship rings (2006, 2012) are a pretty good marker of the success he has had in his career.

The 22-year-old Stephenson made a name for himself in Game 6 versus the Knicks on May 18 when he poured in a career-high 25 points and grabbed a playoff-high 10 rebounds to help the Pacers win 106-99 and take the series 4-2.

If Stephenson provides that kind of rugged, athletic performance throughout this series, he will be a handful for Wade and the Heat.

Wade is averaging just 13 points per game in eight contests and is playing through a right knee injury, but he may be re-energized because the Heat have not played since closing out their second-round series on May 15.

Over the years, Wade has shown a knack for delivering clutch performances despite nagging injuries.

Advantage: Experience will trump youth in this matchup.

Small Forward

LeBron James (MIA) vs. Paul George (IND)

Definitely the marquee matchup in this series as a pair of award winners face off with a trip to the NBA Finals at stake. James was voted MVP and George was chosen as the NBA’s Most Improved Player for the 2012-13 season.

LeBron James has his mind set on another NBA championship. Can anyone stop him? (Photo Credit: Keith Allison, Flickr.com)

James and George, who were also named to the first and second all-defensive teams, respectively, are likely to make life on the court difficult for each other in what has the potential to be a seven-game series.

At their best, both players pile in points with ease and create transition opportunities with shut-down defensive coverage and a willingness to crash the glass.

Advantage: James, the winner of “The Body” in Part I of the HoopsHabit.com presentation “Building The Perfect NBA Player,” will power his way through the challenges presented by George and anyone else who stands in his way.

Power Forward

Udonis Haslem (MIA) vs. David West (IND)

The Pacers will need West to continue pumping out 15.5 points and 6.8 rebounds like he has done so far in 12 playoff games in 2013. On the other hand, I expect Haslem to quietly go about his business and contribute to winning. He has been solid in the Heat’s playoff run, averaging 6.2 points and 3.9 rebounds, despite logging just 17.7 minutes per game.

West (6’9″, 240 lbs) has a slight size advantage over the 6’8″, 230-pound Haslem and his playing time (34.9 minutes per game) is nearly double that of Haslem, who may end up splitting this assignment with Shane Battier and possibly Chris Andersen.

Advantage: West is the better and more dominant player in this matchup.

Center

Chris Bosh (MIA) vs. Roy Hibbert (IND)

What we have here is a finesse vs. physical dynamic. Bosh will try to pull Hibbert away from the basket by knocking down 12- to 18-foot jump shots with the hope of creating space for Wade and James to cut and drive to the basket.

Miami will be up against the shot-blocking presence of Roy Hibbert. (Photo Credit: IsoSports, Flickr.com)

But at 7’2″, Hibbert should be able to regularly establish inside position on the offensive and defensive glass to pick up second chance points and prevent the Heat from doing the same.

A quicker-footed Bosh might also be able to work his way around Hibbert to create opportunities in the lane and trips to the free-throw line. The Pacers may decide to throw someone else at Bosh, since Hibbert’s strength is anchoring the defense from inside the painted area.

Advantage: This matchup is a bit jumbled, but I will take Hibbert for his defense.

Sixth Man/Bench

Ray Allen (MIA) vs. D.J. Augustin (IND)

Miami’s bench clearly has a wealth of tested, savvy players in Allen, Battier, Andersen and Mike Miller. Together they provide a valuable mix of 3-point shooting, perimeter defense and a boost of energy, specifically from Andersen.

Allen joined the Heat for the opportunity to chase another ring, but he hasn’t just been along for the ride. He has appeared in all nine of the Heat’s playoff games and his 12.2 points per game–which he is doing on 44.6 percent shooting in 24.8 minutes–is fourth-best on the team.

Ray Allen is still going strong at 37. (Photo Credit: Mark Runyon, Basketball Schedule)

The Pacers have a capable backup point guard in Augustin, a sprinkle of athleticism in Gerald Green, and get a tough, physical approach from Tyler Hansbrough.

Miami will have a better chance of keeping scoring momentum going when they turn to the bench unless shooters like Allen and Battier go cold, while the Pacers bench will be successful if they can keep the game close when the starters need a break.

Advantage: Miami

Coaching

Erik Spoelstra (MIA) vs. Frank Vogel (IND)

Vogel and James exchanged words through the media earlier this week. Although Vogel’s message to Miami’s superstar was not delivered correctly, James was left thinking that the Heat are “just another team.”

Obviously not a good idea to give James additional motivation.

These coaches went toe-to-toe last season in the conference semifinals, a best-of-7 series that the Heat won 4-2.

Vogel has the difficult task of finding a way to limit Miami’s trio of James, Wade, and Bosh as well as a solid supporting cast. This is possible for a Pacers team that is one of the better defensive outfits in the entire league.

Spoelstra, who in some ways seems to operate in the shadows of team president Pat Riley, has two important tasks: Keep his team motivated and focused for 48 minutes and ensure that the ball does not stick on offense.

Advantage: For the most part, Spoelstra can stand back and watch the Heat go to work.

Key Matchup

LeBron James vs. Paul George

The best player in the game today vs. a rising star. I don’t foresee anything knocking James off his perch just yet.

Miami Will Win If…

They can withstand the Pacers physical play and smothering defense.

Indiana Will Win If…

They can keep the score low, frustrate the Heat’s game plan, and grind out victories.

Prediction: Heat in 7