NBA Free Agency 2013: 4 Free Agents Most Likely To Be Disappointments
With NBA free agency approaching, no one wants to be a disappointment– more commonly referred to as a bust.
Several factors play into becoming a bust, though. Money is probably the biggest one. If you’re underperforming with a massive contract, that’s the easiest way to become a bust. Further, there are top draft picks that are deemed busts after having been hyped up to be great. Greg Oden is a good example.
But let’s take a look at some impending free agents who could become busts.
J.R. Smith, New York Knicks
J.R. Smith has a player option for 2013-14, but is likely to opt for free agency. (NBA.com photo)
J.R. Smith is not a free agent until he declines his player option, but that’s likely to happen. All reports, specifically Moke Hamilton’s report on Sheridan Hoops, concur that Smith is “very likely” to test the open waters.
That being said, Smith’s wishes of garnering a max contract may be a bit off the map. He did win the Sixth Man of the Year award on the strength of 18.1 points per game. He did serve as the Knicks’ primary scoring option outside of Carmelo Anthony. And lastly, he did improve his defense–he contributed a career-high 2.7 defense win shares.
However, Smith isn’t going to be a perfect fit in every offense. The Knicks’ 3-point or bust philosophy plays right into his wheelhouse. It’s a simple script to follow: Smith would take a few head-shakers, but then he would show flashes of brilliance which overshadow the hiccups.
But the playoffs, mixed in with some off the court chaos, have become a disaster. He’s averaging 12.3 points over his last four games. He also hasn’t broke the 20-point plateau once in 10 playoff games. Basing a player’s free-agent stock solely off the playoffs is harsh and sometimes misleading, but Smith isn’t the invincible scorer he was a month ago.
Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz
Paul Millsap can do a little bit of everything. (NBA.com photo)
After Josh Smith, Paul Millsap appears to be the second-best power forward available. You could also make a case for David West, but Millsap is four years younger than him.
The Jazz don’t seem to have any serious desires of retaining Millsap with Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter representing the next wave of youth. They do own Bird rights on Millsap, creating a possible sign-and-trade situation, but regardless, he’s probably played his last game as a member of the Jazz.
If the Jazz don’t utilize that sign-and-trade option, Millsap will be a highly sought-out commodity because he can do a bit of everything. He shot 42.4 percent from 16-24 feet this past season and 63 percent from less than five feet. Synergy Sports ranks him as the 67th-best post-up player and 22nd best offensive rebounder.
However, is he worth the $15 million annually that he’ll initially seek? His stats have been on the decline since he averaged a career-high 17.6 points in 2010-11. He averaged 16.6 points in a shortened 2011-12 season and 14.6 points this year. His PER (Player Efficiency Rating) has remained in the high 20s to low 19s, so there’s been no significant decline on that front.
In retrospect, if he’s paid in the much more reasonable $10 million to $12 million range, then the prospects of him becoming a bust aren’t so high.
So, the money will decide his fate as a future bust or well-paid asset.
J.J. Redick, Milwaukee Bucks
J.J. Redick could be an attractive free-agent target. (NBA.com photo)
J.J. Redick’s impending free agency has stirred up some chaos. Gery Woelfel of the Racine (Wis.) Journal Times speculates that Redick’s services will draw some serious attention from multiple teams this summer. He hasn’t committed to the Bucks either.
If I had to guess, I’d say that Redick parts for greener pastures. He averaged three less minutes in Milwaukee than he did with the Orlando Magic. The minutes controversy became more than a passing whim when he averaged only 17.3 minutes in four playoff games. Then, consider the teeming amount of interest that he garnered at the trade deadline and the writing is on the wall that he’s headed elsewhere.
As for his value …
Redick does more than just shoot, though. If you want to compare, he’s similar to Ray Allen in a sense that he can create shots off screens and move without the ball, so he does deserve more than what a spot-up shooter earns.
The Bucks reportedly offered him a five-year, $40 million contract in March, which seems a bit lofty for someone who posted two mediocre years mixed in with six dreadful ones. That’s the reality, though. Given the high-demand for Redick at the trade deadline, he could ultimately sign a deal similar to the Bucks’ original offer. This greatly increases his chances of winding up on the bust list.
Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves
Nikola Pekovic had a solid year in Minnesota. (NBA.com photo)
Nikola Pekovic is another candidate to earn a pricy contract and limbo under the expectations of the money, all because of a couple decent seasons. Plus, the shortage of quality centers beyond Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum will only benefit Pekovic.
At 27 years old, Pekovic is worth the flyer once the market dries up. He doesn’t sport Dwight Howard’s credentials, but he averaged 16.3 points and 8.8 rebounds in 31.6 minutes this past season. The year before, he averaged 13.9 points and 7.4 rebounds in 26.9 minutes. The trend is readily noticeable: He is getting more action and it’s translating into more production. Pekovic’s usage percentage has also been on the rise.
Pekovic would be a solid pickup for teams in need of a center at a non-Dwight Howard price. Unfortunately, if Howard signs a big deal, which is all but likely, Pekovic can demand more due to the lack of alternative options. He might not be a blatant bust, but there’s a good chance that he doesn’t live up to the impending contract he will soon sign.