Anthony Davis has the tools to be one of the NBA’s next great power forwards. Photo Credit: Mark Allison, Flickr.com
Anthony Davis didn’t win the Rookie of the Year award. Damian Lillard took home that honor, in impressive fashion, mind you.
Just because Davis fell short of Rookie of the Year honors, though, doesn’t mean that he didn’t have a promising start to what’s projected to be a successful career. Sure, about this time a year ago, Davis was a lock to win the coveted award. Hands down. No doubt. Bet on it.
Davis, as mentioned, let some people down. With that said, let’s dive into his rookie campaign.
The Good
If there’s one thing you look for in a rookie, it’s progression. Anywhere from huge gains to small gains counts as progress, as long as said player gets better.
Anthony Davis progressed as the season wound down.
In the first half of the season, he averaged 12.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in 27.8 minutes per game. That was a respectable total given his minutes. Then in the second half, he upped his stats to 15.3 points and 9.3 rebounds in 30.6 minutes per game.
The statistical improvements are obvious, but his court presence went from anxious and amped to a calmer demeanor.
What can’t be ignored is his pick-and-roll prowess:
Davis ranked as the 34th-best pick-and-roll partner in the league, per Synergy Sports. Fittingly, the Hornets were a pick-and-roll heavy team, ending 24.5 percent of their possessions in pick and rolls. So, Davis easily fit in and New Orleans adjusted.
Davis could become one of the league’s most dangerous pick-and-roll partners if he develops a deeper mid-range shot. And that area needs a lot of work, considering he shot dreadful 29.4 percent from the mid-range zone.
He did shoot 40.7 percent from eight to 16 feet. Study the video above and you’ll see those short jumpers off the pick-and-roll in action. But, as his mid-range numbers prove, we can all concur that his range is finite.
Still, Davis’ ability to knock down those short shots spaces the floor significantly. Plus his mobility at 6’10″ makes him a tough force to slow down when he seals his defender and rolls to the hoop.
The Bad
Davis entered his rookie campaign having been highly touted for his impact on defense. It was presumed that if his offensive impact was meager in his rookie season, his defense would save him from being completely ineffective. That wasn’t the case. In fact, he contributed more offensive win shares (3.7) than defensive win shares (2.4).
Of course, the blocks were nice:
However, the Hornets were a better defensive team without Davis. According to 82games.com, New Orleans allowed 111.9 points per 100 possessions with him on the court. Without him, they allowed 111. We are looking at a minuscule difference, yes. However, his touted defensive abilities didn’t shine through.
Since defensive rating can be a deceiving stat due to the fact that it’s team-based, let’s look at Davis’ individual stats.
Again, we find that he wasn’t a dominant defender. According to 82games.com, opposing power forwards averaged a 21.1 PER (player efficiency rating) against him. Opposing centers mustered a similar PER, but Davis generally guarded power forwards.
Synergy Sports also pegs him as a below-average defender. He allowed 1.11 points per possession in spot-up situations, which ranks 327th in the NBA. Of the seven defensive categories that Synergy Sports tracks, spot-ups were indeed the situations that he defended the most (36.4 percent of the time).
Next on that list were post-ups. And again, Davis didn’t fare all too great in that department, allowing 0.9 points per possession (190th in the NBA).
A simple theory for Davis’ struggles when defending the post-up boils down to his inexperience. Experienced veterans could throw a simple pump fake at him and he would bite, picking up a foul. Actions of that nature fall under the theory and you see it happen with all rookies.
In college, Davis was a dominant defender, particularly a rim defender. He would collect those highlight blocks and his defensive fundamentals were sound, which made it easy to think that the transition to the NBA defensively wouldn’t be too tall of an order. Clearly, it was.
I wouldn’t be too worried about those lagging defensive stats, though. After all, Davis didn’t look lost and the Hornets’ team defense certainly didn’t help him.
All stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference, NBA.com and Synergy Sports unless otherwise noted.