Atlanta Hawks: Is There Any Chance For Josh Smith To Stay In Atlanta?

Has Josh Smith played his final game for the Atlanta Hawks? (Photo Credit: Mark Runyon, Basketball Schedule)

Things are about to get real for Josh Smith and the Atlanta Hawks.

Smith played out the final year of his contract in 2012-13 and is expected to test the free-agent market when the signing period begins in July. The 6’9″ forward is from nearby College Park, Ga., and has played his entire career with the Hawks since being drafted 17th overall in 2004.

But this moment will also be pivotal for the franchise and has been building since Danny Ferry was hired as general manager in June 2012.

Ferry began trimming payroll last summer when he traded away Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams. As it stands now, the Hawks will head into the offseason with just seven players under contract at a total value of $22.5 million. That should leave Ferry with plenty of salary-cap space to transform the Hawks’ roster and acquire top-tier talent either by trades or signings.

The last time Smith tried to get away, the Hawks wouldn’t let him go. In the summer of 2008, Smith signed a five-year, $58 million offer sheet presented by the Memphis Grizzlies, but the offer to the restricted free agent was matched by the Hawks on the same day.

Fast forward to 2013, with that deal set to expire, and it is unclear if the Hawks will be as quick to compete for the services of Smith this time around.

The Hawks have advanced to the playoffs six years in a row, including this season, but have not been able to get beyond the conference semifinals in that span with Smith as their centerpiece.

Overall, Smith, who won’t turn 28 until December, has established a reputation as versatile, athletic player capable of a changing a game with his defense.

His ability to block and alter shots is a big part of why in 2011-12 the man known as “J-Smoove” led the NBA with 4.9 defensive win shares–an estimate of of the number of wins contributed by a player due to his defense, according to basketball-reference.com. Although Smith slipped to 12th in the league in 2012-13, his 4.5 defensive win shares was still the highest on his team.

Smith and Al Horford have been one of the league’s more impressive frontcourt pairings since Horford was drafted by the Hawks in 2007.

Here is a look at some of their key statistics for 2012-13.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/7/2013.

These numbers show some of the gap between what Smith and Horford produced this season, but their advanced statistics tell the story even better.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/7/2013.

Horford had a better player efficiency rating (PER), a higher offensive rating (ORtg) and overall, more win shares. Horford’s defensive rating (DRtg) was only one notch below Smith’s.

Perhaps the most alarming difference is between their offensive win shares, with Smith’s actually dipping below zero.

As far as the bottom line, Smith ($13.2 million) and Horford ($12 million) were both paid handsomely this season.

Horford has been a force at the 5 spot for the Hawks; however, I think the 6’10”, 245-pounder is best suited for the power forward position, where Smith has typically logged most of his minutes.

If the Hawks decide to target a center in free agency, for example Dwight Howard or Andrew Bynum, then Horford could slide over to power forward and be an excellent complementary piece.

That, in my opinion, would leave Smith as the odd man out. So I can’t imagine Smith returning unless Horford is moved in a trade.

If the Hawks have concluded that Smith is not a franchise-type player, then there is little reason to bring him back unless there is an opportunity to pair him with a true center and an all-star caliber point guard such as Chris Paul, who may be available this summer.

Otherwise, Smith will likely be doing this somewhere else in 2013-14.

Furthermore, Smith may also decide that it is time for him to move on.