Can Kevin Durant lead the Oklahoma City Thunder over the Memphis Grizzlies in round two of the NBA Playoffs? (Photo Credit: Keith Allison, Flickr.com)
The NBA Playoffs are never clear cut and rarely go as planned (unless you’re the Miami Heat). The Memphis Grizzlies had an easier time with the Los Angeles Clippers than previously expected and the Oklahoma City Thunder lost Russell Westbrook before dispatching of the Houston Rockets.
This series should be a doozy and even though the best player in the series plays for the Thunder, they’re primed for an upset due to the loss of their No. 2 scorer in Westbrook.
Likely Starting Lineups
Point Guard
Mike Conley Jr. (MEM) vs. Reggie Jackson (OKC)
Conley Jr. was tremendous in round one, averaging 17.3 points, 8.3 assists and 1.2 steals per game. More importantly, he hit a lot of big shots for the Grizzlies when they needed them most. Jackson doesn’t have a lot of experience and will certainly have his hands full.
Advantage: Memphis Grizzlies
Shooting Guard
Tony Allen (MEM) vs. Thabo Sefolosha (OKC)
Shooting guard is often a position where players can score, but that’s not the case in this matchup. Allen is looked at as a defensive stopper, while Sefolosha is no slouch himself. Neither is playing particularly well on the offensive end during the playoffs, but Allen gets the nod because he’s shooting better from the field (48 to 36 percent).
Advantage: Memphis Grizzlies
Small Forward
Tayshaun Prince (MEM) vs. Kevin Durant (OKC)
What does Prince have that Durant doesn’t? If you said “championship,” you’d be correct. Unfortunately for Prince, that’s the only thing he has over Durant at this point. One thing to watch for is whether Durant can create his own shot. He struggled at times against the porous defense of the Rockets. If he can’t get his own shot, the Thunder will lose this series.
Advantage: Oklahoma City Thunder
Power Forward
Zach Randolph (MEM) vs. Serge Ibaka (OKC)
You better believe Randolph will bounce back strong. Photo Credit: Mark Runyon, Basketball Schedule
I’m sure Randolph got most of his frustration out against Blake Griffin in the previous series, but it doesn’t get any easier for him against Ibaka. Randolph is definitely the more skilled offensive player, but he’s been plagued by foul trouble (averaged 4.5/game last series). Ibaka can pull him away from the basket if he continues to make jumpers. This will be one of the key matchups in the series.
Advantage: Memphis Grizzlies
Center
Marc Gasol (MEM) vs. Kendrick Perkins (OKC)
In my opinion, Gasol is one of the best all-around centers in the entire league. He can pass, shoot, defend and he’s a serviceable rebounder. Perkins is the exact opposite of that and even though he’s the starter, he played just 15.5 minutes per game last series.
Advantage: Memphis Grizzlies
Sixth Man/Bench
Quincy Pondexter (MEM) vs. Kevin Martin (OKC)
If Westbrook were healthy, this would be a clear-cut win for the Thunder. Their depth took a little hit, but they’re still the better of the two teams, led by Martin. Between Pondexter and Bayless, the Grizzlies have a couple of decent players, but no difference makers on the offensive end. Martin is a difference maker and can win a game for his team.
Advantage: Oklahoma City Thunder
Coaching
Lionel Hollins (MEM) vs. Scott Brooks (OKC)
People are quietly (and not-so-quietly) having doubts about both of these coaches. Hollins has done a great job getting into the playoffs but hasn’t been able to make any noise once there. Brooks has used some questionable rotation judgement, including the continued misuse of the Perkins/Nick Collison combo.
Advantage: Push
Key Matchup
The key matchup isn’t player vs. player, but position vs. position. If the Grizzlies can get their frontcourt going, the Thunder are going to have tons of trouble stopping them. If Ibaka gets into foul trouble, there’s not a lot to like about the depth on the Thunder bench. They hoped Hasheem Thabeet would be able to step in and help in situations like this, but he can’t.
Memphis Can Win If…
…the frontcourt holds up their end of the bargain.
Oklahoma City Can Win If…
…Durant can create his own shot and be the superstar he really is.
Prediction
Memphis upsets Oklahoma City 4-2.
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