NBA Playoffs 2013: Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers Preview
Paul George of the Indiana Pacers gets his first opportunity to lead a team into the NBA playoffs. Photo Credit: IsoSports, Flickr.com
The Atlanta Hawks and Indiana Pacers split their season series, but many pundits around the league have the Pacers easily beating the Hawks.
Let’s take a look:
Point Guard – George Hill (14.2 PPG, 4.7 APG) vs. Jeff Teague (14.6 PPG, 7.2 APG)
This isn’t the most intriguing point-guard matchup that you’re going to find. Neither Hill or Teague is a star. Their respective stat lines are solid, but nothing out of the ordinary. But they are necessary to their respective teams.
The Pacers average nearly 100 points per 100 possessions more when Hill is on the court. When he’s on the bench, they average just 94.6 points per 100 possessions. That’s a large disparity for a Pacers team that struggles points to being with, making Hill’s output on the scoring front even more crucial.
Teague, meanwhile, really couldn’t ask for a worse matchup. Hill is the 34th-best isolation defender in the NBA, according to Synergy Sports. Plus, he has a distinct size advantage. This disadvantage for Teague isn’t going to shatter the Hawks’ hopes entirely, but they do score three more points per game when Teague is on the floor than when he’s on the bench.
The stat to note: the Pacers are 25-11 when Hill wins his individual matchup and 11-16 when he loses. So if Hill can outperform Teague, there’s a good chance that Indiana advances. If Teague wins, Atlanta’s chances increase dramatically.
Advantage Indiana
Shooting Guard – Lance Stephenson vs. Devin Harris
The shooting guard battle is similar to the point guard battle–the matchup isn’t going to decide the series, but their contributions are important.
The Hawks are a whopping 11-1 when Harris wins his matchup. But they still have a winning record (8-3) when he loses his matchup. So from that, you get that Harris isn’t all that important. That might be true, but the Hawks are 6-0 when he scores 18-plus points and 10-1 when he attempts 11-plus free throws. When he’s involved and scoring, he’s much, much more effective.
Stephenson’s offensive game is improving. The third-year guard averaged 15.8 points over his final four games. Over the same span, he shot 52.5 percent from the field and 40 percent from 3-point range.
He is good at creating shots off screens–Harris will have to avoid getting tangled in screens–but he’s limited otherwise. He’s not going to hurt the Hawks in isolation sets, his 3-point shooting, for the most part, is pedestrian and he allows 0.87 points per possession, which makes him the 195th-best defender in the NBA.
Harris’s ability to implode offensively gives him the edge in this battle.
Advantage Atlanta
Small Forward – Paul George vs. Kyle Korver
These two will be listed as the starting small forwards. We can discuss this matchup, but Korver won’t guard George, Josh Smith will do that honor. Korver will likely end up guarding Stephenson to hide his defensive deficiencies.
Korver did, however, have one of his better 3-point shooting seasons in his 10-year career. He shot 45.7 percent from beyond the arc. That’s the second-best mark of his career and best since the 2009-10 season.
The Hawks do have a losing record when Korver doesn’t win his individual matchup, but I wouldn’t look too far into that split. The reality is, he should win his matchup because he is generally matched up against the opposing team’s worst offensive player to hide his defensive flaws.
Regardless of Korver’s value, George without a doubt has the edge here.
Advantage Indiana
Power Forward – David West vs. Josh Smith
West and Smith are nearly opposites. West is slow on his feet while Smith is one of the quicker players on the league, especially for his size. West also has a much, much better mid-range jump shot, while Smith is a dangerous pick-and-roll partner. So, they have their differences, but these differences might not matter because George will likely match up with Smith in most situations.
But if we’re matching these two up, the Hawks need Smith more than the Pacers need West. Atlanta is 26-10 when Smith wins his individual matchup but 9-17 when he loses, while the Pacers are 20-10 when West wins, but 9-8 when he losses.
There’s a good possibility that Smith and West will still matchup against each other on occasion. During those meetings, Smith figures to have the edge because he’s quicker and much more mobile than West, which is really why George will guard him more than not.
Also, Smith is strong on defense where West is strong on offense–in post-up situations. West ranks 19th in the NBA in post-up situations, scoring 0.96 points per possession. Smtih is the 36th best post-up defender in the league, allowing only 0.69 points per possession. Something has to give, and Smith’s superior mobility gives him a leg up.
Advantage Atlanta
Center – Roy Hibbert vs. Al Horford
The battle of the centers is one that could play a big role in the outcome of this series. The Pacers are 19-4 when Hibbert wins his individual matchup, while the Hawks are 28-13 when he wins his matchup.
The trends favor the Hawks when Horford is looking to score. They’re 7-1 when he scores 25-plus points, and they’re 8-2 when he attempts at least 19 shots. Nineteen attempts is a lot for a center, and Hibbert’s length could prevent Horford from mustering quality looks at the hoop.
Both the Pacers and Hawks will run pick-and-rolls through their centers. Atlanta will do so with a bit more frequency, which would favor the Pacers, who are the fourth best team in the league at guarding the roller. They’re middling when guarding the ball-handler, but Teague isn’t Chris Paul coming off pick-and-rolls.
The differences in this matchup between Horford and Hibbert will be a) rebounding and b) whether Hibbert can step out and guard Horford’s short mid-range jumper.
I’ll go with the much more consistent Horford.
Advantage Atlanta
Bench
Neither of these teams have great benches, which may or may not have an impact on the outcome because coaches generally stick with a slimmer rotation of player in the playoffs. That philosophy favors weak benches. And the Pacers’ bench, which ranked second to last in bench points per game, is powerless. The Hawks’ bench, meanwhile, ranked 21st in the league in points per game. They’re also powerless.
We could easily write this category off and call it a wash. But whichever team wins the bench battle has a better chance at winning the series. Indiana’s bench, on paper, is better stocked to win that battle with D.J. Augustin and Tyler Hansbrough headlining the bench corps. Zaza Pachulia and DeShawn Stevenson headline Atlanta’s bench.
Advantage Indiana
Sixth Man: Tyler Hansbrough (7.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG) vs. Zaza Pachulia (5.9 PPG, 6.5 RPG)
Pachuila’s size off the bench will be a good counter to Indiana’s huge front court, which includes Hansbrough.
Hansbrough’s humdrum stats don’t portray anything special, but his defensive efforts fall right in line with the Pacers motto. According to Synergy Sports, he’s the seven-best defender in the NBA, ranking in the top 10 in post-up situations and pick-and-roll situations.
Pachulia isn’t on Hansbrough’s level defensively. He’s a mediocre post defender and struggles to cover spot-ups. Still, if Horford struggles with Hibbert, Pachuila will be called upon to compensate for the size differential between Horford and Hibbert.
Hansbrough’s transcendent defense separates him from Pachuila, though.
Advantage Indiana
Coaching – Larry Drew vs. Frank Vogel
Vogel has done a tremendous job with the Pacers defense, which has ultimately been the one constant.
Drew has a career 8-10 record in the playoffs and tends to be more offensive-oriented then Vogel.
Still, it’s hard to ignore what Vogel has done with the Pacers.
Advantage Indiana
Key Matchup – Roy Hibbert vs. Al Horford
We just went over this matchup in length a few paragraphs ago, but the importance of it is hard to overlook because Hibbert is a solid four inches taller than Horford.
The size differential in rebounding situations won’t bode Horford well. But if the Hawks can effectively devise a pick-and-pop scheme that frees up Horford open for a mid-range jumper, that’s where the matchup evens out because Hibbert’s mobility isn’t superb.
For the Hawks To Win They Must…
The Hawks will have to find some way to put the Pacers’ defense into chaos. Whether that’s through pushing the ball up the court so they can’t get set, or taking on the teeth of their defense, they will have to find a way.
Unfortunately, that’s by no means an easy task. The Pacers are the second-best transition defense in the league and third-best isolation defense in the league. It’s hard to envision Indiana having difficulties guarding a Hawks team that doesn’t have a ton of threats.
In short, the Hawks are going to have to catch fire.
For the Pacers To Win They Must…
The Pacers will simply have to play their strengths. If they play defense, they should win.
Prediction
Pacers In 5