NBA Playoffs 2013: Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Preview

Golden State Warriors’ star Stephen Curry leads his team into the NBA playoffs for the first time since 2007. Photo Credit: Keith Allison, Flickr.com

The Denver Nuggets completed the best season since the franchise joined the NBA from the American Basketball Association in 1976. The Golden State Warriors are back in the playoffs for the first time in six years.

And now these two high-powered, fast-paced teams will meet in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs with Game 1 set for Saturday, April 21, in Denver.

The Nuggets took three of four in the season series from the Warriors and Denver was also an NBA-best 38-3 at the Pepsi Center.

Given that type of home-court edge, it’s hard not to like the Nuggets in this series, even if they were battling through some injury issues late in the season. Point guard Ty Lawson missed time with a plantar fascia tear and small forward Danilo Gallinari was lost for the season when he tore his ACL on April 4.

Ty Lawson missed nine games down the stretch with a plantar fascia tear, but started the final three games of the regular season for the Denver Nuggets. (Photo by Keith Allison/Flickr.com)

The Warriors counter with a pair of star performers in Stephen Curry, who set an NBA single-season record on Wednesday, April 17, when he ran his season total of made 3-pointers to 272, and David Lee, who made the All-Star Game this year and is a double-double machine.

For all the talk of pace and the high rate at which both teams play, this series could be a contrast of styles. Golden State is the top 3-point shooting team in the league at 40.3 percent. Denver, on the other hand, scored more in the paint than any team in the NBA, averaging 57.8 points per game.

Likely Starting Lineups

Small Forward: Harrison Barnes (Golden State) vs. Andre Iguodala (Denver)

Andre Iguodala. Photo Credit: NBA.com

Barnes had a solid rookie season for the Warriors, averaging 9.2 points and 4.1 rebounds while starting 81 games and averaging 25.4 minutes a night. His shooting improved as the season wore on and he finished the year with a 43.9 percent mark, including 35.9 percent from deep. But he’s a defensive liability with a defensive rating of 107 (points allowed per 100 possessions) and he could have trouble matching up with the versatile Iguodala. In his first year in the Mile High City, Iguodala struggled early, but came on late in the season. As much of a facilitator and a defender as he is a scorer Iguodala averaged 13 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game. The assists mark increased to 6.5 a night over the final six weeks of the season (since March 1). But despite his reputation as a defender, Iguodala’s defensive rating was a pedestrian 105. Still, the edge goes to the Nuggets.

Power Forward: David Lee (Golden State) vs. Kenneth Faried (Denver)

David Lee (NBA.com photo)

Lee was the leading rebounder and second-leading scorer for the Warriors this year, averaging 11.2 boards and 18.5 points per game. He’s an efficient shooter at 51.9 percent, but he’s not a player who will venture far from the basket. According to vorped.com, Lee takes 65.2 percent of his shots in the restricted area. But with a player efficiency rating (PER) of 19.2, Lee is an established standout who makes his free throws (79.7 percent) and can distribute a bit (3.5 assists per game). Faried, on the other hand, is a second-year player who made a nice improvement in 2012-13, averaging 11.5 points and 9.2 rebounds a game while his playing time increased from 22.5 minutes to 28.1 minutes a game this year. Faried shoots a high percentage (55.2 percent), but his offensive repertoire is mostly limited to transition dunks, alley-oops and put-backs. So the edge goes to the Warriors.

Center: Andrew Bogut (Golden State) vs. Kosta Koufos (Denver)

Bogut struggled through another injury-plagued campaign, playing in just 32 games and averaging a career-low 24.6 minutes a night because of problematic knees. His scoring (5.8 points per game) is a career low and his 7.7 rebounds per game is his lowest average since his rookie season in 2005-06. However, his per-36 minutes numbers tell a slightly different tale, as Bogut grabs 11.2 rebounds per 36 and blocks 2.5 shots in that span. The problem is keeping him on the floor for 36 minutes—something he hasn’t done once this season (his season high was a 33-minute night against the San Antonio Spurs on March 20). Koufos, on the other hand, made a quantum leap this year, playing in 81 games and averaging a career-high 22.4 minutes a game. He averaged eight points and 6.9 rebounds for Denver while playing decent defense in the middle with a defensive rating of 103. Neither player has much of a playoff track record—this is just Bogut’s second postseason appearance and first since 2006 while Koufos has averaged just 4.5 minutes per game in his previous 13 playoff games. Bogut has the stronger reputation, but based on his play this year I’d call this matchup a push.

Shooting Guard: Klay Thompson (Golden State) vs. Evan Fournier (Denver)

Klay Thompson (NBA.com photo)

Thompson is a strong candidate for Most Improved Player this season. In his second NBA season, Thompson improved his scoring by more than four points a game to 16.6, shot 42.2 percent from the floor and 40.1 percent from deep while improving on the defensive end as well. Thompson can be quick on the trigger—he averages more than six 3-point attempts a night—but provides a nice compliment in the backcourt with Curry. Fournier has only been in the starting lineup for four games—three of them as one of the adjustments coach George Karl made after Gallinari went down. For the season, his scoring average of 5.3 points a game might not jump off the page, but in his last three games—all starts—he has averaged 15.3 points a game on 52.9 percent shooting. The rookie from France can play, but this will be the first playoff rodeo for both of these players. Based on pure game experience, the edge goes to the Warriors.

Point Guard: Stephen Curry (Golden State) vs. Ty Lawson (Denver)

Stephen Curry. (NBA.com photo)

The marquee matchup of the series is between the little guys. Lawson is the closest thing the Nuggets have to a star, while Curry is unquestionably the guy who drives the bus for the Warriors. They are their teams leading scorers—Curry averaged 22.9 points a game, Lawson 16.7—and Curry is the most dangerous threat from long range in the NBA. He shot a sizzling 45.3 percent from 3-point range on a whopping 7.2 attempts per game. It’s why he set the record for made 3s without getting close to the record for attempts; the 600 attempts Curry took from deep in 2012-13 are just the 10th-most all-time and 78 behind the record of 678 set by George McCloud of the Dallas Mavericks in 1995-96. Curry isn’t a true point guard, but he’s learned to facilitate well enough to average 6.9 assists a game and despite his slight build and history of ankle problems, Curry averaged 38.2 minutes a game.

Lawson started the final three games of the season after missing most of the end of March and early April with the plantar fascia injury. Over those final three games, Lawson averaged 17.3 points and eight assists a game while shooting 56.3 percent, so it seems like he’s at least OK after missing so much time.

On the year, Lawson dishes 7.2 assists per game and is continuing to emerge as Denver’s go-to guy. But while Lawson had a nice season, Curry had a season for the ages, so the edge goes to the Warriors.

Bench: Golden State has a couple of terrific performers off the bench in point guard Jarrett Jack and power forward Carl Landry. Jack was the Warriors’ fourth leading scorer at 12.9 points a game while averaging 29.7 minutes. He handles the ball-handling and allows Curry to roam around as a spot-up shooter and averaged 5.5 assists a game. Landry contributes 10.8 points and six boards a night. From there, however, the Warriors bench gets a bit thin, with rookies Draymond Green and Festus Ezeli providing depth up front and Richard Jefferson getting about 10 minutes a game on the wing.

Andre Miller (NBA.com photo)

The Nuggets counter with Wilson Chandler and Corey Brewer on the wings, veteran Andre Miller at the point and center JaVale McGee off the bench. Brewer averaged 12.1 points a game in 24.4 minutes a night while Chandler scored 13 points and grabbed 5.1 rebounds in the 41 games he played. Miller, it seems has been around forever and the 37-year-old is still effective, averaging 9.6 points and 5.9 assists in 26.2 minutes. McGee leads the Nuggets with two blocks a game and tantalizes coaches and fans alike with his athleticism.

If there is one area in this series where Denver has a huge advantage, this is it.

Coaching: Mark Jackson (Golden State) vs. George Karl (Denver)

Jackson has done a nice job getting this team to the playoffs, but it’s likely Karl has forgotten more about coaching in the NBA than Jackson knows at this point. Karl’s seen it all and done it all, save winning a title, and that will give him a tactical advantage over Jackson at this point in their careers, so give the edge to the Nuggets.

Key Matchup: Stephen Curry vs. Ty Lawson

Whichever point guard wins this battle could play a big role in determining which team wins the series. Curry’s pure scoring ability makes the difference against a defender who could be somewhat limited due to his foot problems. Give the edge to the Warriors.

What Has to Go Right For Golden State

Curry and Thompson provide a couple of outside scoring threats that the Nuggets can’t match, particularly without Gallinari–their best 3-point shooter. Bogut appears to be healthy and can give the Warriors a much-needed interior defensive presence against a team that scores so much of its points in the paint.

What Has to Go Right For Denver

The Nuggets don’t lose at home, but they also don’t fare well on the road, finishing just 19-22 away from the Pepsi Center. So winning the games at home is crucial. Iguodala, Brewer, Chandler and Fournier give Denver a bevy of choices to fill the scoring gap created by Gallinari’s injury and if Lawson is 100 percent, the Nuggets have the speed to match up with Curry and Thompson.

Prediction: The Warriors are game and Jackson, in his second year, has done a terrific job of changing the culture by the Bay. But Denver’s just about unbeatable at home and that’s the difference. Nuggets in 6.