NBA Playoffs 2013: Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Preview

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Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and the rest of the Miami Heat are ready to defend their NBA championship. (Photo Credit: Mark Runyon, Basketball Schedule)

The Eastern Conference playoffs seeds are mostly locked in. The defending champion Miami Heat are set to face the Milwaukee Bucks in this year’s one versus eight first-round matchup.

This by all definitions is an underdog matchup.  Think David versus Goliath, Rocky Balboa versus Apollo Creed, The Average Joes versus The Purple Cobras. Problem is the little guy doesn’t miraculously get the victory this time.

Slice and dice it whichever way you like, there’s only one winner in this one and that’s the Miami Heat, who won the season series 3 -1.

Here’s an analysis of the series starting this weekend.

Likely Starting Line-ups

Guard – Mario Chalmers vs Brandon Jennings 

Brandon Jennings will have to play outstanding basketball for the Bucks to stand a chance in the playoffs. (Photo Credit: Keith Allison, Flickr.com)

Chalmers will get and hit a lot of open shots because of the Big Three and he’ll always be ready for the big shot when called upon – just ask Derrick Rose.

However, Brandon Jennings is an extremely explosive scorer and can go off for 30 to 40 points at any time. Sure he hasn’t had the best of seasons this term but he can still do a lot of damage.

In his four games in against Miami this season, the lowest Jennings has scored is 19 points and dropped 30 in their last encounter. Chalmers on the other hand hasn’t made more than three field goals in each contest.

Advantage Milwaukee

Guard – Dwyane Wade vs Monta Ellis 

Wade didn’t exactly come out blazing at the start of the season, averaging just 17 points per game for November and many (including myself) felt he had lost a step or two.

Turns out he’s still got a lot left in the tank as he played his way to eighth among the NBA’s top scorers (21.2) and sixth in steals with 1.88 a game this season.

At 31 years old and considering the way he plays and injuries, the notion that Flash has lost some of his athleticism isn’t entirely ridiculous. Nonetheless, he’s still quick and good enough to cover the likes of Monta Ellis, even if he’s 10th in scoring with 19.4ppg.

Advantage Miami

Forward – LeBron James vs Luc Richard Mbah a Moute

Three words: Most, Valuable, Player.

Advantage Miami

Forward – Shane Battier vs Ersan Ilyasova

Ilyasova poses a slight dilemma because he’s essentially a stretch 4 who plays at the small forward spot because of Mbah a Moute’s offensive deficiencies.

However, Shane Battier is a great defender and he’s faced players who are bigger, stronger and deadlier offensively than the Turkish International, so he shouldn’t have too much trouble.

Plus, all (or most of) the Bucks attention will be on the Big Three so Battier will be getting open looks from 3.

Advantage Miami

Center – Chris Bosh vs Larry Sanders

Sanders has proven he’s a premier shot blocker in the NBA this season with his 2.83 blocks a game which is second in the league. However, like I said before, the attention will be on the Big Three, specifically LeBron James, who has been living at the paint this year.

This means Sanders will have to protect the paint against him, leaving Bosh wide open for his trademark mid-range shots.

Advantage Miami

Sixth man – Ray Allen vs J.J. Redick

Who better to make big playoff shots than Ray Allen? (Photo Credit: Mark Runyon, Basketball Schedule)

Allen rubbed a couple of people the wrong way when he opted to skip town from Boston and sign for the rivals Miami Heat.

A few months down the line, people may still not be fond of him or his decision but they can certainly understand it-I think. Considering that the 37-year-old has been able to help Miami retain their title with production off the bench, scoring nearly 11 points on 42 percent from 3 and a career low 26 minutes. Rather than the commotion in the Celtics ranks who are hampered by key injuries.

J.J. Redick hasn’t been able to give Milwaukee the scoring or shooting they were looking for off the bench following his deadline trade from the Orlando Magic.

Advantage Miami

Bench – Advantage Miami

The Miami Heat has a bench which boasts the All-time leader in 3 pointers made in Ray Allen, a former Sixth Man and Rookie of the Year in Mike Miller and a perennial NBA starter in Udonis Haslem.

Milwaukee on the other hand has Samuel Dalembert and J.J. Redick, a shooter who’s struggling to find his shot as of late.

It’s not quite the same is it?

Coaching – Erik Spoelstra vs Jim Boylan 

Coach Spo knows a thing or two about having a disgruntled star. Remember the “unintentional” shoulder bump with LeBron when the Heatles first got together?

Fast forward to today and the two are the best of friends, and Spoelstra is in the running for NBA Coach of the Year.

Jim Boylan is having a similar problem with his star Brandon Jennings after the fourth year guard publicly tee’d off on him on Twitter. It’s pretty hard to envision both of them coming back next year.

Advantage Miami

Key Matchup – Dwyane Wade vs Monta Ellis.

Brandon Jennings has the “easier” matchup so he’ll probably be productive.

The decisive factor in whether this is a series or just a walk over will be whether Monta Ellis also plays out of his mind.  

For Miami to win what needs to go right for them?

LeBron James has been the undoubted leader of this Miami Heat team but the role players have been the key. They’ve been shooting lights out from three and creating room for James and Wade to do their damage from within and Miami has been damn near impossible to stop.

That has been and still is the key for the Heat.

For Milwaukee to win what needs to go right for them?

EVERYTHING.

Milwaukee is the worst team in these NBA playoffs with a sub .500 record, going up against the best team in the league. They’ll have to be extremely efficient and careful offensively because Miami live off fast break points.

Jennings and Ellis have to be on top of their game at the same time offensively in order to trouble Miami.

Simply put, Milwaukee need to play flawless basketball and just pray for a miracle.

Prediction – Miami 4-0

I really don’t see how Miami would lose this series. Ultimately, the Bucks will get swept out of the playoffs.

Best-case scenario, they steal a game to make it 4-1.