Milwaukee Bucks: Are They A Legitimate Threat In The Eastern Conference?
Milwaukee Bucks guard Monta Ellis is returning to the NBA Playoffs for the first time since 2007. (Photo Credit: Pablo Gamez, IsoSports)
The Milwaukee Bucks clinched at least the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference on Saturday, April 6, and are headed to the playoffs for the first time since the 2009-10 season.
On Tuesday, April 9, the Bucks visit the Miami Heat, who they are likely to match up with in their first-round series later this month.
The Bucks still have a chance to move up to seventh to avoid the Heat, but then would have to deal with either the New York Knicks or possibly the Indiana Pacers.
For now, let’s assume that the Bucks remain in the eighth spot and face the Heat in the first round as I expect.
Here then is a look at the likelihood of the Bucks spoiling Miami’s quest to repeat as NBA champions.
The Season Series
As mentioned in my previous article, the Bucks are 1-2 against the Heat so far this season.
On Nov. 21, the Heat outscored the Bucks in the fourth quarter to force overtime and went on to win 113-106.
On Dec. 29, this time playing at home, the Bucks blew the game open with a 35-14 fourth quarter and went on to win 104-85.
The Heat, leading by 16 points after three quarters, earned a 107-94 victory on March 15 in Milwaukee.
Moving to the present, there will be several themes to watch for in Tuesday’s game.
Even though the Heat have clinched top spot in the East, they are still working towards locking up the league’s best record to secure home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, particularly in the NBA Finals.
Brandon Jennings and the Milwaukee Bucks will try to even their season series with the Miami Heat on Tuesday, April 9. (Photo Credit: Keith Allison, Flickr.com)
Therefore, the Heat are not likely to just coast and rest players while the San Antonio Spurs, trailing by 3.5 games, still have a shot a catching them in this race.
This game is perhaps even more valuable for the Bucks, who will try to even the season series at two games apiece.
If LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are all in uniform tonight, something that has not happened since March 29, it would be an opportunity for the Bucks to measure up against a team that has been successful in the playoffs.
Finally, a win by Milwaukee would make a statement that it can compete with Miami and will mean business when the teams meet up for their best-of-seven series.
You Can’t Teach Experience
During the Bucks’ absence from the playoffs, the Heat–with the assembled Big Three of James, Wade, and Bosh—reached the NBA Finals twice, losing to the Dallas Mavericks in 2011 and then returning in 2012 to defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder.
While a two-year drought is far from epic, the current roster for the Bucks features only three players from the 2009-10 team that finished sixth in the conference with a record of 46-36. That season, Brandon Jennings, Ersan Ilyasova and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute made their playoff debuts in a 4-3 series defeat at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks.
Furthermore, as referenced in the Milwaukee- Journal Sentinel (JS Online), Monta Ellis has not been to the playoffs since 2007 with the Golden State Warriors and Mike Dunleavy Jr. appeared in just one series with the Pacers in 2011.
The team’s most experienced playoff performers are Marquis Daniels (62 games) and J.J. Redick (44 games).
J.J. Redick has appeared in 44 playoff games, but none with the Milwaukee Bucks. (Photo Credit: Keith Allison, Flickr.com)
While the core members of the Bucks have experienced the intensity and atmosphere of playoff basketball, they have not done so as a team, so in many ways they will be learning on the fly against a very tough opponent.
It is true that the Bucks (with the exception of Redick, who was acquired from the Orlando Magic in a mid-season trade), have had an entire season to gel as a team, but the style of play changes drastically in the playoffs, becoming more half-court oriented, defensive-minded and with more value placed on each possession. This puts a lot of pressure on the team to make adjustments in unfamiliar circumstances.
The Heat, on the other hand, having not made any major changes to their roster, will be able to pick up where they left off last season.
What Would Have To Go Right
There might actually be a couple ways for the Bucks to gain an advantage on the Heat, especially early in the series.
Even during their 27-game winning streak, the Heat showed a tendency to just “turn on” the switch when needed.
The best example of this was on March 20 when they fell behind by 27 points at the 7:44 mark of the third quarter, but rallied to defeat the Cleveland Cavaliers 98-95 with the help of a triple-double by James. It should be noted that the Cavaliers were without Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, and Anderson Varejao in this game.
If the Heat fall in to that trap against the Bucks, I don’t think they would be as fortunate. The Bucks are advised, however, to not let up at all if they manage to build a double-digit lead against the Heat at any stage of the game.
The Bucks will also have an advantage on the glass in this series as they are a much better rebounding team, currently ranked fifth overall at 43.8 per game. They grab 13.1 offensive rebounds per contest and only trail the Denver Nuggets (13.3) in that category.
Shockingly, the Heat are last in the NBA in rebounding at 38.3 per game, although that is offset somewhat by their league-leading field-goal percentage of 49.6.
Still, the Bucks could keep themselves in the game if they turn those extra possessions into second-chance points. Furthermore, the Bucks, who score 43.8 percent of their points in the paint (10th overall), should look to exploit the Heat’s lack of interior presence aside from reserve forward Chris Andersen.
The Final Verdict
It would be nice if the Bucks could head into the playoffs with a .500 or better record, but it speaks to the disastrous seasons of teams that are ninth through 15th in the conference that this isn’t necessary.
LeBron James and the Miami Heat are likely headed to the NBA Finals for a third straight season. (Photo Credit: Mark Runyon, Basketball Schedule)
In my opinion, it has been more than a month since the Bucks received any real pressure from teams below them in the standings that were fighting for the eighth seed.
The Bucks will certainly benefit from this playoff experience, but more so only if their core players are brought back in 2013-14 to take the next step.
If the Bucks were able to knock off the Heat, it would be comparable to when Ellis and the eighth-seeded Warriors defeated the Mavericks in the first round in 2007.
However, I would consider this playoff run a success if the Bucks can push the Heat to a six or seven game series, but with the Heat ultimately advancing to the second round.