Dallas Mavericks: Blueprint for the Post-Dirk Nowitzki Era

Dirk Nowitzki has been the face of the Dallas Mavericks since the early 21st century, but at age 34, his days as a franchise player are numbered. Photo Credit: Keith Allison, Flickr.com

Dirk Nowitzki has been the guy for the Dallas Mavericks for more than a decade. But as with all good things there is an end and the end of the Dirk Nowitzki era is rapidly approaching in Dallas.

Nowitzki, 34, missed 29 games at the start of the 2012-13 season due to a knee injury. Since his return, he’s not been the same old Dirk.

His scoring average of 17.2 points per game marks the first time it’s been below the 20-point mark since his second season, 1999-00. His usage percentage of 24 percent is the lowest it’s been since a 23.8 percent mark in his third year, 2000-01.

Some of that is a product of his playing time, 31.3 minutes per game, which is the lowest it’s been since he was a rookie.

But even his per 36 minute numbers tell a story of decline. Nowitzki is averaging 19.7 points and 7.9 rebounds per 36 minutes, compared to career averages of 22.6 and 8.2, respectively.

So what’s next for the Mavericks?

The drop-off in Nowitzki’s production has mirrored a drop-off for Dallas. The Mavericks are 37-39, on the cusp of falling out of the playoff race. Dallas is three games behind the eighth-place Los Angeles Lakers with six games to play.

It would be the first time Dallas has missed the playoffs since 1999-00, also the last time the Mavericks lost more games than they won.

Dallas needs a new face, a star to shift the burden of carrying the franchise away from Nowitzki.

Unfortunately, it’s not likely to happen in the draft. Dallas is in the dreaded middle of the NBA … not good enough to make the playoffs, but also not bad enough to get a franchise-altering draft pick without a lot of luck with the ping-pong balls.

Conspiracy theorists might want to chime in here with something about the acrimonious relationship Mavericks owner Mark Cuban has had with NBA commissioner David Stern when considering how much of a chance Dallas would have of moving into the top three picks in the lottery.

Fortunately, however, the Mavericks will have a lot of flexibility this summer. According to hoopsworld.com, Dallas will likely have between $12.7 million and $18.1 million available under the salary cap this offseason.

O.J. Mayo has been a solid addition for the Mavericks this season, averaging 15.9 points per game, but he’s not likely the guy to be the guy in the future. For starters, Mayo is likely to opt out of his contract this summer and seek some larger bucks in free agency, cash the Mavericks would not be advised to throw Mayo’s direction.

There’s also still an outside chance the Mavericks could make a play for free agent Dwight Howard, currently with the Los Angeles Lakers.

But shifting the focus of the franchise away from Nowitzki doesn’t necessarily mean that Nowitzki would have to leave Dallas. There have been cases where a player who was the face of a franchise has been able to survive the arrival of a new face while taking on a lesser role.

After all,  Nowitzki is still capable of plays like the one in the video below, when he beat the Chicago Bulls at the buzzer on March 30.

During the last two titles of the Pat Riley era in Los Angeles, the Lakers transitioned from being Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s team to being Magic Johnson’s team. The aging Abdul-Jabbar was successfully able to remain a key part of the franchise without having to be the driving force.

David Robinson navigated the same transition with the San Antonio Spurs when Tim Duncan’s star began to rise late in Robinson’s career.

Granted, it doesn’t always work. Oscar Robertson had to leave the Cincinnati Royals before he could accept a supporting role with the Milwaukee Bucks. Allen Iverson, on the other hand, never seemed to be able to accept not being the primary guy on offense later in his career with the Detroit Pistons or the Memphis Grizzlies.

The big key for Cuban and his general manager, Donnie Nelson, is to identify who the next star of the Mavericks will be, whether it’s Howard or someone as yet undetermined.

Once that’s done, management will have to work closely with Nowitzki to make sure he knows he is still valued and still appreciated for everything he has accomplished in Dallas—but with the very clear understanding that the offense will run through someone else now.

In a best-case scenario, the Mavericks land that new star this summer and the transition begins.

The worst-case scenario, of course, is that Dallas doesn’t find a new franchise player and Nowitzki fades unceremoniously, followed by another period like the Mavericks experienced from 1990-91 through 1998-99—a bad team that was utterly irrelevant in the greater scheme of things in the NBA.

Somehow, with Mark Cuban calling the shots, the worst-case scenario doesn’t seem likely.