2012 NBA Draft: Who Has Been the Most Surprising Player So Far?

Damian Lillard has been extremely impressive for the Portland Trail Blazers. Photo Credit: Chrishmt0424 (Flickr.com)

Andre Drummond was thought of as a high-risk draft pick when he was selected with the ninth overall pick in the 2012 NBA Draft. Damian Lillard was doubted throughout his high school and college career.

However, Drummond has surpassed expectations and proven to be an extremely efficient player for the Detroit Pistons, while Lillard has carried the Portland Trail Blazers to some success.

Drummond has averaged 7.5 points per game (PPG) and 7.6 rebounds per game (RPG) in less than 20 minutes per game this season and while his Pistons aren’t doing well, the prodigy has enjoyed a nice rookie season. The future is bright in Detroit, even though the Pistons currently stand at 25-50.

Lillard is an explosive guard who has carried the Trail Blazers this year, leading them to some success. The Blazers were expected to land in the cellar of the West and while they won’t be in the playoffs, Portland fans are excited for the future.

Lillard has averaged 19 PPG and 6.5 assists per game (APG) as the leader of the 33-41 Blazers and while he is averaging almost 16 shots per game, Lillard has been able to score. He’s a 43.1 percent shooter from the field and shoots 85.2 percent from the free-throw line, which isn’t bad at all.

In addition, Lillard has electrified crowds with some nice performances. He has scored eight or more points in his last 23 games, while he’s been in double-digits in all but one of those games. Lillard dropped 35 points on the San Antonio Spurs, the first-place team in the West, while dishing out nine assists. The Blazers won that game 136-106, largely because of Lillard.

There have been other impressive rookies as well, such as Anthony Davis of the New Orleans Hornets, who has impressed with his defense and rebounding ability. Davis is averaging 13.3 PPG and 8 RPG in 28.5 minutes per game (MPG), and while he’s been impressive, he was expected to do well as the top overall pick. Lillard and Drummond, on the other hand, were doubted.

Lillard has seemingly made a bigger impact, but Drummond has been more efficient. Drummond has missed some time, as he has played in only 53 of Detroit’s 75 games. However, in those games, he has been very good. His free-throw shooting could use a little (or a lot) of work, but otherwise, he has been fabulous.

His 22.24 player efficiency rating (PER) ranks third among centers and 15th in the entire league and it is far better than Lillard’s, which would seem to suggest that Drummond is more efficient. Lillard’s 16.67 PER isn’t bad by any means, especially considering he averages more than 38 minutes per game and PER is largely based on minutes. However, the difference is huge between Lillard and Drummond in this category, especially when you consider that Lillard ranks 23rd among point guards.

The league average in PER is 15, so Lillard and Drummond are both above-average in this category. PER is about the only place where Lillard has been close to average this year, because his rookie season has been exceptional. Drummond is averaging less than 20 minutes per game and while he is producing in those minutes (especially on the glass), he hasn’t been as valuable.

Once Drummond polishes his free-throw shooting (somehow, he is shooting less than 35 percent from the charity stripe), he will be a dominant player. He is averaging 18.2 rebounds per 48 minutes, putting him up there with some of the league’s elite big men.

Drummond’s field-goal percentage also puts him up in that category, as he has made 59.5 percent of his shots. Granted, most of those shots have been dunks, layups or other shots from within five feet, but he’s still making shots and asserting himself as a threat to score. Drummond isn’t known for his offense; he’s known for his athleticism and rebounding. So, the fact that he is averaging 17.94 points per 48 minutes in his rookie season is impressive.

The advanced stats say that Drummond has been the most efficient and valuable player. Despite playing about twice as much and despite playing in 21 more games, Lillard’s estimated wins added (EWA) is 8.0 and Drummond’s EWA is 6.1. If Drummond had more minutes and more games, he would have likely been higher.

However, the fact that Lillard is leading all point guards in MPG and has played more MPG than LeBron James is incredible. He has gained the trust of the Trail Blazers’ organization and has provided a glimmer of hope for the future, which is something Drummond hasn’t exactly done yet.

Drummond is a raw player who needs to work on his free-throw shooting and needs to stay on the court. He hasn’t impacted the franchise in a big way yet, as Detroit has won just one-third of its games. Once Drummond ages and matures, he will accumulate more minutes and take major strides. Lillard will grow as well, considering that he is a hard-working player (via Mike Schmitz of Valley of the Suns) and is still blossoming. In March, Lillard averaged 21.3 PPG and 6.8 APG, suggesting that he has improved over the course of the season. Lillard is going to become one of the most dynamic, efficient and talented point guards in the game very soon and while the same could definitely happen to Drummond, it will take some time.

Both of these rookies have easily exceeded expectations, and both have given fans hope for the future. Even though Drummond hasn’t played too much, he has shown flashes of star potential and the possibility of becoming a superstar. Lillard has been more consistent and has played a ton, taking the team on his back and guiding them to 33 wins.

Right now, despite some of the advanced stats suggesting otherwise, Lillard has been more productive and has been the better player. He dealt with an ankle injury in college, but he hasn’t missed a game for the Blazers; in fact, he’s started in all of them. Drummond has started in just three games, and he hasn’t played much, either. Once Drummond is able to play more and can produce consistently without getting hurt, he could end up being not only the most surprising player, but the best player in this crop.

However, for now (and possibly later, too), Lillard has been the most surprising player in the 2012 NBA rookie crop.