Milwaukee Bucks: Analyzing Their Decision-Filled Offseason

Will Monta Ellis use his early termination clause? Photo Credit: Pablo Gamez, IsoSports

Trading for J.J. Redick wasn’t supposed to result in anything good for the Milwaukee Bucks. Having three relatively undersized guards–Redick, Monta Ellis, Brandon Jennings–wasn’t supposed to be a formula for success.

But the Milwaukee Bucks have proven us wrong.

They have mustered a 7-4 record since Redick made his much-anticipated debut on Feb. 24 and in turn, the Bucks firmly occupy the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference with less than 20 games to the finish line. Plus, one good streak coupled with a bad streak by the Atlanta Hawks or Boston Celtics could put them in position to avoid the Miami Heat in the first round. Yes, that would be a relief.

So bringing over Redick from the Orlando Magic hasn’t been such a bad idea after all. He’s averaging 14.2 points in 10 games and as noted, the Bucks’ offense hasn’t dismantled even slightly. In fact, they’ve been better, posting an offensive rating of 106 since Redick made his debut on Feb. 24. To put that into context, the Bucks current offensive rating per 100 possessions is 101. So, we’re talking about a near five-point increase, which is good regardless of the small sample size.

But what can’t be ignored is Ellis’ sterling play since Redick swapped uniforms. In 11 games (since Feb. 24), he’s shot 50.9 percent from the field for 26 points. He also has also compiled a decent true shooting percentage of 59.5.

But really, who saw this coming from Ellis? Redick’s newly imported presence was supposed to nibble away at Ellis’ shot attempts, thus bringing down his scoring output. That hasn’t been the case, though.

The funny thing is Jennings has slowly become the odd man out, at least for now. Since the trade, Jennings is averaging only 14.5 points, a sizable downgrade on his overall total of 18.1. He is also taking nearly four fewer shots per game.

Ellis is on a roll, so the Bucks are riding his hand more frequently, which puts a dent in Jennings’ looks per game. This isn’t a permanent thing, though. Really, it could change if Ellis hits a cold streak, which could be at any time.

Still, one might wonder if that has any implications on Ellis’ offseason plans. The super-scoring guard can use his termination clause to opt out of his current contract at the end of the season and originally, this was almost a surefire plan of action. Not only could he find some lucrative contract elsewhere, but he could also find a place where he would be the primary option on offense. Those are two incentives that are hard to pass up.

Monta Ellis is on fire since J.J. Redick came over from the Magic. Photo Credit: Keith Allison, Flickr.com

Now, however, he might have different plans.

On March 8, Marc Stein of ESPN.com reported that Ellis might consider strongly of opting in with the Bucks next season for $11 million. Perhaps it’s only a coincidence that his increased interest in staying in Milwaukee comes at a time where he and the team is finding success. I doubt it, though.

Ellis is clearly playing better since the trade and Redick hasn’t disrupted the potency of his offensive game. The former Warrior is averaging 30.9 points per 48 minutes with Redick on the floor and 26.1 points without him on the court. It’s clear that Redick’s knack for knocking down shots has opened up seams for Ellis to penetrate.

However, there’s just one hurdle: The Bucks would likely need to retain Redick to lure Ellis into staying, given how well they’ve played together. This won’t be an easy task.

Redick isn’t a conventional spot-up shooter that you could find on the scrap heap. He can move without the ball effectively and isn’t a liability on defense. So, he’s sort of like Ray Allen, but not quite that good.

What that means is, well, more money for Redick, who’s an unrestricted free agent this offseason. And if the trade deadline was any indication, there surely won’t be a shortage of interest in the sharp-shooter.

The question is whether the Bucks have the resources to pay Jennings (a restricted free agent), Ellis’ potential $11 million and Redick, who might draw a four-year deal worth north of $40 million.

Brandon Jennings has taken the back seat since J.J. Redick arrived. Photo Credit: Keith Allison, Flickr.com

Well, Jennings might have solved that problem in the long run.

Again, on March 8, Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports reported that Jennings has a tricky move up his sleeve. Since he is a restricted free agent, he can’t part for greener pastures yet. But as Spears reports, he may very well accept a one-year qualifying offer from the Bucks this upcoming offseason and proceed to leave in free agency in two years. Sneaky, right?

Indeed. And if this is actually the case, then the Bucks would be wise to sign Redick to a long-term deal and do everything in their power to convince Ellis not to use his termination clause this offseason. Although, Ellis can also become an unrestricted free agent after next year if he chooses.

As for just 2013-14, retaining all three would be a stretch of their budget. Per Basketball-Reference, they currently have a little more than $42 million committed for next season. So say, Ellis opts in, Jennings takes the qualifying offer and Redick signs a long-term deal worth about $12 million annually. With the luxury tax in the $70 million range, the Bucks could probably barely squeeze those three in.

Of course, the Bucks aren’t omnipotent. Ellis has to decide whether he wants to stay in Milwaukee, Redick will surely test the free-agent waters and Jennings may or may not want to sign a long-term deal.

The Bucks have three big decisions to make, and the decisions just happen to involve three of their best players. Meaning, they could go from contenders back to the all-to-familiar cellar.