LA Lakers: Breaking Down How Far Into the Playoffs They Can Go

The Los Angeles Lakers have talent, but they are certainly struggling this year.(Photo by Scott Mecum/Flickr.com)

The Los Angeles Lakers have had a bumpy ride this season, and the result has most definitely not been success.

When Steve Nash, Dwight Howard and Kobe Bryant teamed up, with Pau Gasol and Antawn Jamison on the Lakers as well, we expected the Lakers to dominate. However, they are treading water and would miss the playoffs if the season ended today, because they are in ninth place in the West. Most people expect the Lakers to make the playoffs, but even if they do, they will be in a hole.

The San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Clippers are all very good teams, and it’s very likely that the Lakers will face one of those three teams. In fact, the Lakers will have to pass at least three teams to avoid a matchup with those teams, and even then, they would probably face the Denver Nuggets or Memphis Grizzlies.

Denver is currently 9.5 games ahead of the Lakers, so it’s safe to say the Lakers won’t pass them. That would make it so that the Lakers would have to win at least one road game to advance just to the second round, and right now, Los Angeles is 11-20 on the road. Playing against the Grizzlies, a great defensive team that has allowed an average of 88 points per game (PPG), or the Nuggets, a high-scoring team with a point differential of 4.2, on the road will not make anything easier.

While the Clippers and Lakers share an arena, it will still be difficult for the Lakers to defeat their Pacific Division rivals. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin will make things tough on Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard, and it’s also worth noting that the Clippers have taken all three contests this year against the Lakers. Oklahoma City is 3-1 against Los Angeles and won four of five playoff games against the Lakers last year, and the Spurs are 2-0 against Kobe and company this year.

Also, there are some knocks you can make against some of the Laker players. Kobe Bryant is 34 years old, and while that’s about the only knock on him at this point, there is still the possibility of him showing his age in the playoffs. Steve Nash has a 15.5 player efficiency rating (PER), suggesting that he is an average player. From the 2004-05 season to the 2011-12 season, Nash averaged over 10.9 assists per game. This year, he is averaging seven assists per game.

Oh, and in 38 games, Nash has not scored more than 20 points.

Dwight Howard is still posting great rebounding numbers, but his PER is 18.8. That’s well above the league average of 15, but well below what Howard usually gets and well below the mark of other centers. Somehow, Howard is 20th among only centers in PER, and he is 10th in estimated wins added (EWA) among centers. These stats suggest that Howard hasn’t been all that great, and that has contributed to the struggles of the Lakers.

There are only two Laker players with a PER above 16 (that average at least 16 minutes per game), and those players are Bryant and Howard. That suggests that the Lakers aren’t very deep, which would definitely be a reasonable claim. To win championships, you need to have multiple good players and at least one star. The Heat, Mavericks, Celtics, Lakers (from 2008-2010) and Spurs have proved that recently, and this year’s version of the Lakers have also proved that.

While there are definitely good things about Los Angeles, there are more reasons why they won’t succeed. The Lakers built a relatively new team, but you would expect chemistry to be fine after 63 games. Kobe Bryant has definitely performed well, and his stats (23.5 PER, 27.6 PPG) would certainly agree with that statement. However, it hasn’t been enough for the Lakers.

Other teams have stepped up, and it’s incredibly difficult to do anything as an eighth, seventh or sixth seed. Los Angeles will need to win games on the road and perform a lot better, and it will take a lot of role players making contributions down the stretch for the Lakers. The Lakers are talented enough to pass the Jazz and get into the playoffs, but they can’t count on only Kobe to bail them out in the playoffs.

Because if they do, it’s going to result in absolutely no playoff success for the Lakers.