Cleveland Cavaliers: Could Kyrie Irving become an MVP candidate?

Photo Credit: Erik Daniel Drost (Flickr.com)

Can Kyrie Irving become a candidate for the Most Valuable Player award? History shows trends developing for previous MVP candidates.

First, go look at the table below and sort it according to points. What do you notice?

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Yes, in the MVP’s 57-year history, only nine players won it without scoring 20 points and they usually did it by dominating another statistical category–five of them were won by Bill Russell (who averaged no less than 22 rebounds in all five of his MVP seasons), two were won by Steve Nash (who averaged 10.5 and 11.5 assists in his MVP campaigns) and the other two?

Bill Walton averaged 18 points, 13 rebounds, five assists and 2.5 blocks and Wes Unseld had 13.8 points and 18.2 rebounds. I think we can all agree those are huge statistical numbers.

But are raw box score stats the only reason why players become MVP candidates?

Of course not. Lots of players produced equally great statistical seasons, but were never really considered for the MVP. What matters most to people–besides raw box score stats–is their team’s record and the story and buildup to the end.

In fact, over the past 20 years, the team of the MVP won 75 percent of the time. In that same span, the MVP winners’ teams finished the season with the best record in the league 13 times, second-best record three times, third-best record three times and fourth overall once (this was LeBron James‘ 2011-12 MVP campaign when the Miami Heat had fewer wins than the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and Chicago Bulls).

Another key component of an MVP season is the buildup and story that captivates the league. James’ 2011-12 campaign was all about rising above the disappointment of his 2010-11 no-show in the Finals.

Derrick Rose‘s 2010-11 campaign was all about how Chicago turned from a so-so team into an elite team (thanks in large part to coach Tom Thibodeau’s defense). James two MVP campaigns while he was with the Cleveland Cavaliers were all about how he carried a team of role players into the best record in the league (twice). Same with Dirk Nowitzki in 2006-07. Nash’s back-to-back MVPs were all about Phoenix fame as a run-and-gun team. Kobe Bryant‘s 2007-08 MVP campaign was all about “being due his” (like the league owed him an MVP or something).

Point is–the story matters. As much as people want to talk about how to evaluate who the best player in the entire league is, in the end you won’t win it solely on your merits but on the story that the media has cooked up for you and how the NBA tries to develop their brand around you.

With that out of the way, we now ask–can Irving become an MVP candidate??

Let’s check all the requirements.

1. Does he have the stats? In Irving’s second year in the league, he is averaging 24 points per game–which ranks sixth in the league. He is also averaging close to four rebounds and six assists while shooting very well. So yes, I think Irving’s got this covered. Within a couple of seasons, I can clearly see him averaging 25 points, four rebounds, seven assists and close to 46/40/88 on shooting percentages. Those are MVP numbers.

2.) Does his team have the record? Right now, it doesn’t. The Cleveland Cavaliers currently hold the fourth-worst record in the league–that’s at least 24 teams that they have to leapfrog for Irving to even be considered an MVP candidate. That’s a lot of work. Can Cleveland’s management give him that supporting cast? With the plethora of picks that general manager Chris Grant has stockpiled over the years and the recent improvement of Tristan Thompson, it’s certainly possible. But they are still a long way off.

3.) Does he have the story and the buildup? Most definitely. The media can go with any number of stories if Cleveland’s winning percentage finally creeps into the 75 percent range. He’s the player that saved Cleveland after James left it in shambles and they can talk about all of his game-winning shots (and trust me, there will be a lot of them as the years go by). Plus, they can talk about how he’s made Cleveland relevant again. And if that turnaround happens, I’m pretty sure the improvement in the team’s record will be huge. It may happen next year. It may happen the year after that. But it will at least be a 10-win improvement from the year before. Book it.

So we’ve established this–Irving’s legitimacy as an MVP candidate all hinges on whether Cavs’ management can surround Irving with enough talent to make them a team that can win 75 percent or so of its games. Can they?

Again, with the plethora of picks and copious amounts of cap space they’ll have over the years, Cavs’ management definitely has the assets to surround Irving with talent. And the good news is that Irving is an easy player to build around simply because his skills mesh well with most of the talent that’s already available in the league. He can score from any spot on the floor. He can shoot with range. He can make plays for others. He can play on the ball and off the ball (but you’d be a fool not to put the ball in his hands on majority of the possessions).

One thing that’s keeping Irving from actually becoming an MVP candidate besides the incompetency of the Cavs’ front office?

James’ return to Cleveland. If that happens, Irving will be shadowed by one of the best players in league history. Under that shadow, he will not win the MVP for sure.

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