Golden State Warriors: Effectiveness of ‘fifth guy’ will shorten or lengthen NBA Finals
The Golden State Warriors are heavy favorites entering the 2017 NBA Finals. With the best quartet of players in NBA history, they should be. For the Cleveland Cavaliers to upset them a second straight year, they’ll need to find advantages on the margins.
An over-used term but under-discussed concept surrounding the Golden State Warriors’ last two Finals runs was their “strength in numbers.” In 2015, the team slogan rang true. Shaun Livingston, Festus Ezeli and David Lee played important roles off the bench, and Andre Iguodala won Finals MVP.
In 2016, Iguodala’s health deteriorated over the course of the series. This put a serious strain on the Warriors’ depth, as did Andrew Bogut‘s knee injury in Game 5. They were forced to either play bigs who were too slow defensively and too ignorable offensively (Ezeli, Marreese Speights and Anderson Varejao), a beat-up Iguodala, or wings who were lesser options on James than Iguodala (Livingston, Leandro Barbosa).
Playoff basketball is often more about your weakest link than your greatest strength. While the Warriors’ strengths have become significantly stronger (Kevin Durant replacing Harrison Barnes, 100-percent Stephen Curry replacing less-than-100-percent Curry), their fifth spot is again a question mark.
Iguodala will undoubtedly be Mike Brown‘s preferred guy, but his health seems to be waning again. If his minutes and effectiveness are limited, the team is left with several imperfect options.
The center options
Tristan Thompson is the biggest matchup nightmare for the Warriors. LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are better players, but Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are as close to defensive antidotes for those three as you’ll find in the league.
They have no such prescription for dealing with Cleveland’s center.
David West is the Warriors’ best big, but is also the smallest. That’s a problem against Thompson, who finished No. 3 in the league with 4.4 offensive rebounds per 36 minutes (among players with at least 2,000 minutes).
Zaza Pachulia is a better option on the glass. He’s a terrific box-out guy, which is more important than high-pointing rebounds against a player like Thompson. However, Pachulia presents similar problems to last year’s post Bogut-injury bigs: ignorable on offense, incapable of switching on defense.
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JaVale McGee solves half that problem. The “vertical spacing” he provides makes the decision to leave him tough. West and Pachulia are easier to help off of. However, he’s even worse defending in space than Pachulia, and lacks the awareness and technique to keep Thompson off the boards.
If the question were simply “who matches up best with Thompson?” the answer would be Green. He’s a better rebounder than all but Pachulia and is an elite pick-and-roll defender and switch guy. Offensively, he demands attention, if not as a shooter than as a playmaker.
However, Green cannot play the 5 for 30-35 minutes a night. Seeing as that’s what Thompson has averaged in these playoffs and in last year’s Finals, one of the Warriors’ bigs will have to step up.
When Thompson rests, things get easier.
West can handle Love at the 5. He can contest his jumpers, match his strength on the block and limit him on the glass. He’ll get outplayed, but not demolished.
McGee and Pachulia will have a harder time with Love, though McGee can cause him problems on the other end. Channing Frye is likely unplayable against Golden State’s core lineups.
The wing options
Green at center helps solve the Tristan Thompson issue, but it opens up a spot on the wing. A healthy Iguodala would take care of all meaningful small-ball minutes, but things get dicey if he’s hobbled or cannot go at some point.
Livingston is the most logical replacement, but he would have to guard James against Cleveland’s base lineup. While he cannot be disregarded on offense, his lack of range does shrink the floor.
Ian Clark would push Klay Thompson to the 3, thus forcing Curry onto Irving. The Warriors will go to this lineup for stretches, but not late in games. Patrick McCaw softens the defensive concerns, but has far too little confidence in his outside shot to play any meaningful minutes against the team that broke Harrison Barnes last June.
Matt Barnes is an interesting option. He can somewhat-check James, or at least use up fouls on him. Considering Barnes’ physical nature and James’ mediocre free-throw stroke, this is not a bad strategy. The Cavs would abandon him on the other end, but his relative experience may shrink the otherwise-sizable gap between his jumper and that of McCaw. Still, he’d be the worst player on the floor, by far, if he played in crunch time.
Who’s it going to be?
The harsh truth is this: The Warriors have five guys who are 100-percent playable against the Cavs. Others can play in small stints, but the bigger those roles become, the greater Cleveland’s chances get.
Again, this is only relevant if Iguodala is marginalized. A healthy 2015 Finals MVP gives the Warriors the best five-man unit ever constructed, and gives Cleveland little more than a full-court shot over seven games.
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If any other Warrior is playing down the stretch, the Cavs can compete. As the inferior team, that’s all they can ask for. As the team with the mental edge, that may be all they need.