This year the San Antonio Spurs are struggling in the opening round of the playoffs against a team most thought they would sweep. Danny Green is also having the worst offensive showing of his playoff career. Coincidence?
Danny Green has been the starting shooting guard for the San Antonio Spurs‘ last six playoff runs. It was his defense that got him that role, but his shooting is key to how far they’ll go. In these last six years San Antonio has done it all.
They have lost in first round, lost in the conference semis, lost in conference finals, lost in NBA Finals and, of course, won the whole thing. Each of these outcomes has a direct correlation to Green’s success.
It Was The Best Of Times …
In the last six years, the San Antonio Spurs have made the NBA Finals twice. Each of those seasons Danny Green posted his highest scoring averages of his playoff career.
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He scored 11.1 points per game in 2012-13 when the Spurs lost to the Miami Heat and 9.3 points per game when they got their revenge the following year.
Both years also marked his second- and third-highest shooting percentages in the playoffs to date, going for 48.2 percent in 2012-13 and 47.5 percent in 2013-14. Green also had his second-and third-best years in this time frame in terms offensive and defensive ratings.
And while his very best year only resulted in the second-best finish for the team in this time span, the Spurs were just one win, one rebound even, from the title that year.
It Was The Worst Of Times …
In 2014-15, the San Antonio Spurs were bounced from the first round coming off of a championship run. In the seven-game series against the Los Angeles Clippers it appeared everything was clicking.
San Antonio Spurs
Kawhi Leonard was averaging 20.3 points per game to follow up his previous playoff performance, which earned him Finals MVP.
Tim Duncan was still productive, averaging 17.9 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.3 blocks even against the young frontcourt duo of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan.
But it was Green who struggled, putting up his worst shooting percentages from the field (34.4 percent) and from three (30.0 percent) in his playoff career as a starter. Marco Belinelli or Patty Mills might have been better options offensively in this series.
They shot 14-for-30 and 16-for-28 from three, respectively, compared to Green’s 12-for-40. But Green’s defense was necessary and kept him in the game. He just couldn’t provide the offense to match.
There’s Always One
Now, of course, there’s an outlier. Last year, Danny Green posted good numbers across the board. He had his best playoffs in terms of offensive and defensive ratings (119-97) as well as three-point shooting percentage (50.0).
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It was the only year, other than 2012-13 and 2013-14, he made more than two three-pointers a game on average. It was also his third-highest scoring output (8.6 points per game) in his six playoff appearances.
By this hypothesis, the team should have made it to at least the conference finals, like they did in 2011-12 when he scored just 7.4 points per game and shot just 34.5 percent from deep. But instead they lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round. So what happened?
First of all, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook happened. In the last playoff series the two would win together, they went off. They slightly outscored the Spurs’ top two scorers (Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge), 322-300.
Also, Duncan and Manu Ginobili showed their age, averaging less than seven points apiece for the series. Despite Green’s stellar showing, it was not enough for the Spurs to advance.
What Does This Mean
That remains to be seen. With the San Antonio Spurs currently up 3-2 on the Memphis Grizzlies, there’s still plenty of optimism. Green’s performance is worrisome, however, and could explain why the Spurs are still in this matchup.
Through the first five games, Green is averaging a playoff career-low 5.6 points per game on 26.3 percent shooting from deep. If the Spurs want to go far in these playoffs, Green will need to find his stroke.
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Take that for data.