Houston Rockets: Ideal First-Round Playoff Matchups

With the NBA regular season winding down, which opponents should the Houston Rockets want to face in the first round of the NBA playoffs?

It is nearly guaranteed that the Houston Rockets will finish as the third seed in the Western Conference. As it currently stands, the Rockets are six games behind the second-place San Antonio Spurs and 6.5 games ahead of the fourth-place Utah Jazz.

Barring a complete collapse, the Rockets will finish third.

Now attention turns to which team will finish with the sixth seed, as there are several teams within grasp of a first-round matchup with Houston. The Los Angeles Clippers are in fifth place, but are only one game ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder, currently in sixth.

There are also the Memphis Grizzlies, who are currently seventh and just two and a half games behind the Thunder.

Out of these three teams, which should the Rockets prefer to face in the first round? Let’s take a closer look at the two most desirable matchups.

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are currently 40-34, but are quickly falling out of contention for the sixth seed due to a four-game losing streak. In fact, since the trade deadline, the Grizzlies are 6-10 and own a net rating of minus-4.4, good for 23rd in the league.

To say the Grizzlies are struggling to close the season would be an understatement.

Houston Rockets /

Houston Rockets

For the season, the Grizzlies own the 19th-best offense and seventh-best defense in the league, but only have a net rating of 0.2, good for 13th in the league. The Grizzlies defense has fallen off a cliff since the trade deadline, as they have the 28th-ranked defense during that stretch.

The Rockets and Grizzlies split their four games this season, with the Grizzlies using their tough defense to win the first two while the Rockets outgunned Memphis in the final two games, looking very comfortable in doing so.

James Harden in particular has looked very comfortable against the Grizzlies this season, shooting 54.9 percent from the field and 48.3 percent on three-pointers.

Another thing that bodes well for the Rockets (and in particular Harden and Lou Williams) is that the Grizzlies own the second-highest fouls per game rate in the league, fouling nearly 23 times per game.

This is an area that the Rockets can take advantage of, especially if the referees don’t swallow their whistles.

The main reason the Houston Rockets should desire a matchup with the Grizzlies is because the Grizzlies don’t have the firepower on offense to keep up with Houston and their defense isn’t as elite as it has been in recent years.

James Harden (and the Rockets) looked very comfortable against Memphis in the final two games of their season series, making it likely Houston would simply outgun the Grizzlies in a first-round playoff series.

Oklahoma City Thunder

A matchup between the Thunder and Rockets is certainly one the national media is rooting for. Luckily for them, this is the most likely first-round matchup for Houston, with the Thunder currently sitting in the sixth spot.

In their season series, the Rockets won three of the four games. However, the first three games were extremely close, as they were decided by a total of just seven points. Then came an offensive explosion from the Rockets on Sunday:

That game highlights the way the Rockets would beat the Thunder in a series, yet also how the Rockets can be exposed.

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From Oklahoma City’s perspective, perhaps the only encouraging sign from that game was their advantage on the glass, grabbing 16 offensive rebounds to just two for the Rockets. However, other than that this was a thorough, end-to-end beat down by the Rockets.

Like the Grizzlies, the Thunder lack enough offensive firepower to hang with the Rockets and their defense is not good enough to make up that difference. For the season, the Thunder own the 16th-ranked offense and 11th-ranked defense.

However, since the trade deadline, their defense is ranked 16th in the league, which won’t be enough to handle Houston’s offense in the playoffs.

Of course, the Thunder have MVP candidate Russell Westbrook who has been very good against the Rockets this season, averaging 36.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 9.2 assists per game in the four matchups.

However, a plan the Rockets seem comfortable executing on defense is allowing Westbrook to score and take over games as Houston takes his supporting cast out of the game defensively.

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Although three of their four matchups were close this season, the Rockets have held large leads in the past two games and simply have too much firepower on offense for the Thunder to handle, making this matchup between the two MVP candidates and their teams favorable for the Houston Rockets.

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