Utah Jazz: Breaking Down The Current Playoff Picture
By Adam Coffman
As the Utah Jazz move closer and closer towards postseason action, we look at their road to the playoffs, including potential matchups, upset probabilities and more.
With just 17 games to go in their regular season, the Utah Jazz look to be on track for a playoff berth for the first time with their current core. The last time they reached the postseason was 2012, in which a Tyrone Corbin-led team was swept in the first round by the first-seeded San Antonio Spurs.
Unlike last season, in which injuries to key players like Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors caused the Jazz to fall one game short of the Western Conference’s eighth seed, this year’s team has ridden solid play from Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert, and others to a 41-24 record.
This mark is good for fourth in the West at the moment and makes it almost a certainty that they will break their playoff drought. The issue now becomes one of seeding – where could the team end up and who could they be paired with?
The top two seeds are all but out of reach, as the Golden State Warriors and Spurs lead the Jazz by 11 and 9.5 games, respectively. There’s little chance either team will be letting off the gas either, as they will be duking it out over the season’s final weeks for the top spot.
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The Houston Rockets, who currently occupy third place, are just three games ahead, and thanks to a 115-108 win on Wednesday, Utah owns the tiebreaker between the two teams.
Making up the ground, though, will not be easy. Nine of the Jazz’s final games will be against teams over .500, with five of them on the road. Houston benefits from a much easier schedule, facing only five teams with winning records the rest of the way.
Placing their focus on maintaining the fourth seed and the first-round homecourt advantage that comes with it looks like the safest strategy. Chasing the Jazz in the standings are the Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies.
Utah Jazz
The Clippers, who are just two games back, won their first two matchups with the Jazz this season.
Utah will need to take both remaining games to tie the season series, which would lead to the teams’ divisional records determining the winner.
The Thunder and Grizzlies are both five games back, placing them a comfortable but still not completely safe distance away from the Jazz.
Both teams have hit somewhat of a rough patch, the Thunder losers in four of their last five and Memphis just 3-7 in their last 10.
Unfortunately for Utah, if either of these teams were to catch fire, the tiebreakers have the potential to knock them out of their current spot.
Memphis has clinched the season series with a 3-1 record against the Jazz, while the Thunder can take their own tiebreaker with a win on Saturday.
As it stands currently though, the Jazz control their own destiny. If they continue their recent play, homecourt advantage should be all theirs, regardless of what other teams do.
If things hold as they are now, with the Jazz receiving the four seed, they would probably prefer not to face the Clippers in the first round.
Los Angeles at different times this season lost both Blake Griffin and Chris Paul for around 20 games each. At one point they were considered to be a top-three team, and if their experienced core starts clicking in April, they could be a tough out.
Likewise, the Grizzlies and Thunder present their own problems. Memphis center Marc Gasol has the range to take Rudy Gobert out of his natural domain, while Russell Westbrook has the potential to explode for 50 points nearly every night.
Should the Jazz win their first-round series, they would be looking at either the Warriors or Spurs in the second round. Either team will be a formidable foe — the Jazz are 0-2 against the Warriors and 1-1 versus the Spurs — but with their final two games pitting them against both teams, Utah may have a hand in determining who they could face.
Once they recover full health, the Jazz will be primed and ready for a stretch run that will test their mettle. If they can away successfully with the 4-seed, they will have shown an ability to perform under pressure that will be essential in April.
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This version of the Jazz has never been seen in the playoffs, but the organization did well to bring in veterans like Boris Diaw, Joe Johnson, and George Hill with experience in the postseason. With the youthfulness of so many key pieces, this could be just one of many playoff appearances to come for Utah.