Toronto Raptors, Kevin Durant, And The Value Of Luck
By Justin Rowan
The injury to Kevin Durant shows why teams like the Toronto Raptors should be buyers at the deadline. However, there is no straightforward answers when it comes to team building.
The NBA world was shook with the news that Kevin Durant may miss the remainder of the regular season. While he will likely return for the playoffs, the injury may open the door for the unpredictable to happen. For second-tier teams like the L.A. Clippers, San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets or Toronto Raptors a limited Durant may be the break they need to reach the ultimate success this season.
Injuries can happen to any player at any time. In the East, the Cleveland Cavaliers have been without their starting shooting guard in J.R. Smith for most of the regular season. In addition to that, Kevin Love underwent knee surgery which could limit him come playoffs.
Limitations to star players for the Warriors and Cavs could have been the difference maker for the Toronto Raptors. Sensing opportunity and their window closing, the team went out and made moves to acquire both Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker.
On paper, these moves could be significant in shifting the balance in the NBA playoffs. However, just as the unpredictable managed to hit the two title favorites, the Toronto Raptors had their own crisis and Kyle Lowry required surgery on his hand.
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There are no easy answers when it comes to team building. The Boston Celtics have been heavily criticized for holding onto their assets, rather than paying the asking price for Paul George or Jimmy Butler.
The Raptors went the opposite route, choosing to cash in some of their chips for a better shot at the NBA Finals.
Toronto Raptors
If Lowry returns and is close to 100 percent, the Raptors may have a shot at achieving their goal. Conversely the Celtics, as currently constructed, have relatively no shot unless they receive even more luck on the injury front.
Even then, they still could very likely be behind the improved Raptors squad.
There isn’t necessarily a right or wrong approach. In a few years, we’ll be able to look back on this time with hindsight bias and claim to have all the answers. It’s possible the Celtics will make a big acquisition this summer for a lower price.
Or they may use their draft pick and develop a title winning team down the line. However, to some their approach may feel like having one foot in one approach and one foot in another.
I would argue that the Raptors have used the correct approach this season. It feels naive to assume longevity when discussing team building. The Indiana Pacers looked like a legitimate contender with Roy Hibbert a few years ago.
However, they had their hopes squashed by the Heat and were forced to rebuild. Even the Heat fell apart after just four years, despite looking like a juggernaut when first formed.
The Raptors recognized that their opening-day roster didn’t have the tools to compete with the Cavs. While the moves they made didn’t put them over the top, they put themselves in position to capitalize should they receive a lucky break or two. The Cavaliers did the same thing last year.
While the Warriors were the clear best team during the regular season, the Cavs still made moves to try and increase their odds. As a result, they were able to capitalize when lucky breaks occurred.
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Toronto didn’t mortgage their future with their deadline moves. They still kept multiple assets for future moves and still have plenty of young talent. But the moves they made were made specifically to help them match-up better against the Cavs and Warriors.
While Boston may have not felt comfortable cashing in everything if it wouldn’t make them the favorite, the complete inaction just ensured that they would waste a year of the primes of Isaiah Thomas and Al Horford.
As previously mentioned, there are no easy answers when it comes to team building. But when you’re in the second tier and your core is in their primes, if you aren’t making moves to give yourself a better shot, you are wasting an opportunity.
While uncertainty clouds the Raptors, they still made wise moves that will help them survive the remainder of the regular season, as well as fare better in a potential series against the Cavaliers.
Even with a potential top pick, the Celtics could still wind up with a good, but not great, player. Owning the Nets’ pick still only ensures a 25 percent chance at first overall. Luck is one of the most important factors in sports, whether fans want to admit it or not.
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When faced with the choice to concede this season and hope your roster has more longevity than the current contenders or to better your chances to capitalize should luck favor your, the proper answer should be clear.