Houston Rockets: Serge Ibaka Should Be A Trade Target

With the trade deadline two weeks away, the Houston Rockets have the assets to acquire versatile big man Serge Ibaka. Now it’s time they make the move.

The Houston Rockets are currently third in the Western Conference at 38-17. They have the front-runners for MVP, Sixth Man of The Year, and Coach of the Year. Things are looking good in Houston. However, the Rockets also have a decent amount of trade assets.

Assets that could secure the talents of Serge Ibaka, who is being shopped by the Orlando Magic.

After trading for Ibaka, the Magic went out and signed a bunch of frontcourt pieces that haven’t fit together, leading to a disastrous 20-34 season so far, good for 13th in the Eastern Conference.

The Magic have put several of their players on the trade market, but the one that should intrigue the Rockets (and plenty of other teams) is Ibaka.

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Serge Ibaka has taken well to an increased role in Orlando, as he is posting a career high in scoring (15.2 points per game) on improved efficiency (56.8 true shooting percentage).

Ibaka has expanded his game to become a true stretch 4, as he is shooting career highs in three-pointers made (1.5 per game), attempted (3.9 per game) and percentage (38.5 percent).

This is an important development from the Rockets’ perspective as their offense relies on having a floor spacing power forward on the floor at all times.

Ibaka has shown increased comfort on the offensive end this season. Just look at how he torched the Rockets from all areas of the court:

Ibaka attacks from both inside and outside the arc like few big men can in the NBA. In fact, Ibaka’s distribution of shots based on distance is very similar across the board.

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He takes 17.2 percent of his shots within three feet, 18.8 percent come from 3-10 feet, 15.8 percent come from 10-16 feet, and 17.2 percent come from greater than 16 feet but less than a three-pointer.

Perhaps most importantly, 31 percent of his shot attempts this season have been from beyond the arc. That is music to Mike D’Antoni‘s ears. Just imagine the amount of open shots Ibaka would receive playing alongside James Harden (or even Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson for that matter).

Now it’s time to face the facts. Ibaka isn’t the defender he used to be. We saw this regression begin last season in Oklahoma City and it has continued in Orlando. His blocks per game have decreased every season since 2011, and he has reached a career-low of 1.4 per game.

His block percentage has also decreased each year since 2011, to a career-low of 4.2 percent this season.

Ibaka is also posting a career low in defensive box plus-minus (0.5) and a barely above average defensive real plus-minus of 0.76, good for 36th in the league among power forwards. There is reason for concern regarding Ibaka’s play on that end of the floor:

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The fact is that Ibaka is no longer that menacing shot blocker and rim protector he once was. However, Ibaka would still be a defensive improvement over Ryan Anderson and Montrezl Harrell, who certainly have their shortcomings.

Acquiring Ibaka provides the Rockets with another (floor spacing) option offensively and a defensive upgrade.

Ibaka has established himself as a go-to option on offense and is still an above average defender. It is very rare to find players like that on the trade market. Now here comes the tricky part: actually making a move for the big man.

The Rockets have expressed interest in trading for Ibaka, but the question begs: what will they have to give up to acquire his services?

We all know by now that Ibaka will be an unrestricted free agent in the summer, meaning it is very possible he could only be a two- or three-month rental for the Rockets. That severely limits the amount of assets the Rockets should be willing to give up in return.

However, a possible trade package of K.J. McDaniels, Montrezl Harrell, Corey Brewer (for salary filler) and a first-round pick should certainly be an offer that entices the Magic. They would be receiving three solid prospects in McDaniels, Harrell and the player drafted with the first-rounder.

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The salaries would match up and the Magic could throw in a player like Damjan Rudez to fill the extra roster spot for the Rockets.

Although it may be tough for the Rockets to give up their first-round pick (especially with all of the recent drafting success the team has had), adding Ibaka could very well put the Rockets ahead of the Spurs, particularly in the playoffs.

It is becoming increasingly likely that barring major upsets or injuries, the Rockets and Spurs will face off in the second round as the second and third seeds. A player like Ibaka could be crucial for the Rockets in such a series.

With Ibaka, the Rockets could throw out a lineup of Harden-Gordon-Trevor Ariza-Anderson-Ibaka, which would provide offensive firepower and competent defense.

Another route the Rockets could go would be a lineup of Harden-Patrick Beverley-Ariza-Ibaka-Clint Capela, which has the capability to play lockdown defense while not sacrificing on the offensive end.

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In the end, there is no shame in playing for a trip to the conference finals. With the Rockets having the MVP front-runner, they should take a swing to maximize their playoff chances. That swing would be a trade for Serge Ibaka.