Karl-Anthony Towns swept the Western Conference Rookie of the Month awards en route to a unanimous victory in the Rookie of the Year voting. His second year has not been as universally lauded.
Karl-Anthony Towns started his career with one of the best rookie seasons of the past 20 years. Towns started all 82 games for the Minnesota Timberwolves and averaged 18.3 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. He shot 54.2 percent from the floor and 34.1 percent from behind the arc.
Towns seemed capable of making shots from basically anywhere on the floor.
The Wolves finished last season with a 29-53 record, a 13-win jump from their previous campaign. After Tom Thibodeau signed on as their coach and president of basketball operations, many expected another leap from the young Minnesota squad.
ESPN’s Marc Stein ranked the Wolves as the 12th-best team in the league prior to the season. Tim Bontemps of the Washington Post even predicted that Minnesota would win 50 games.
Related Story: 25 Best Players to Play for the Minnesota Timberwolves
This season has not been as wonderful as predicted for either the Wolves or Karl-Anthony Towns. Minnesota is currently 13-26 and 13th in the Western Conference after a shocking upset victory over the Houston Rockets on Wednesday.
Towns is averaging 21.7 points and 11.8 rebounds per game, both improvements from last season. However, given the outsized expectations for the Wolves coming into this season, it seems both strange and safe to say that he has put together a disappointing 2016-17 campaign.
Offense: More Points, but Many More Shots
Karl-Anthony Towns is scoring more points per game than last season, which is a positive sign on the surface. However, the incredible efficiency that was the hallmark of his game last year has not been as strong this season.
Saying that Towns shot 54.2 percent to the floor does not quite do justice to his incredible offensive efficiency. His shot chart from last year is simply mind-boggling. He could hit from anywhere on the floor and do so efficiently.
Karl-Anthony Towns has been significantly less efficient so far this season. His field goal percentage is down to 48.4 percent. Furthermore, his True Shooting Percentage has dipped from 59.0 percent last year to 56.2 percent this year.
Towns has increased his 3-point shooting rate from 1.1 attempts per game last year to 3.7 attempts per game this year. However, that has been accompanied by falling from an almost league average 34.1 percent to a far more concerning 31.0 percent this year.
His offensive game is varied enough that he should not waste possessions by jacking up difficult long-range shots:
If Towns continues to shoot that poorly from deep, opposing big men can simply leave him open from behind the arc and focus on protecting the paint.
Given Ricky Rubio‘s shooting woes and Andrew Wiggins‘ regression to the mean after a hot start from 3-point range, a continued drought from behind the arc from Towns could spell serious trouble for Minnesota’s offense.
Defense: A Concerning Regression
Many expected the Timberwolves to push for the postseason on the back of a much-improved defensive squad under Tom Thibodeau.
Karl-Anthony Towns was expected to be a major part of that improvement as a rangy 7-footer with the speed to contain pick-and-rolls and the athleticism to be a great rim protector.
So far, neither Towns nor the Wolves as a whole have lived up to that ideal. Towns has a Defensive Rating of 110.1 this season, down from 108.1 last season per NBA.com. He has also posted an abysmal 117.3 Defensive Rating in the fourth quarter this season.
The Wolves have struggled as a unit to close out games; they are 0-10 in games decided by fewer than four points and have lost 12 games in which they led by double-digits. Towns’ struggles to defend down the stretch of close games has undoubtedly cost Minnesota some wins this season.
It would be unfair to pin those issues entirely on Karl-Anthony Towns. Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine, Minnesota’s other two 20-plus point per game scorers, are not exactly defensive stoppers.
Ricky Rubio has also had somewhat of a down year on the defensive end after leading the NBA in steal percentage for three of the last four seasons. Still, defenses in the NBA are anchored by their big men.
While Towns has the physical tools to succeed on that end, he still has a long way to go defensively.
Looking Forward: The Future Remains Bright
Karl-Anthony Towns is not quite having the incredible season that many predicted this year. However, he may never have been able to live up to his rookie campaign for the ages.
More from Hoops Habit
- 7 Players the Miami Heat might replace Herro with by the trade deadline
- Meet Cooper Flagg: The best American prospect since LeBron James
- Are the Miami Heat laying the groundwork for their next super team?
- Sophomore Jump: 5 second-year NBA players bound to breakout
- NBA Trades: The Lakers bolster their frontcourt in this deal with the Pacers
Even so, his sophomore season has still been quite impressive. The list of players who averaged 20 points and 10 rebounds per game in their sophomore season since the 3-point line was implemented is short and star-studded.
Only 15 players have reached those numbers in their second year, per Basketball-Reference. Most of those players are either Hall of Famers or are on their way there. All 14 of the other players on that list made multiple All-Star appearances.
Karl-Anthony Towns is having a spectacular second year, and it would be unfair to say otherwise. He is producing at an elite level on the offensive end and he has a decent chance at making his first All-Star Game.
It seems odd to say that Towns has had a disappointing sophomore year given his incredible production. After his outstanding rookie season, however, pretty much anything short of a playoff berth and an All-NBA team nomination was likely to be a disappointment.
Next: 25 Worst Individual Seasons In NBA History
Unless the Timberwolves can turn their season around in the second half of the year, neither of those notions seem likely.