Dallas Mavericks: Best Move They Did, Didn’t Make
The Dallas Mavericks spun the wheel again this offseason, changing the cast around Dirk Nowitzki. What was their best move this summer? And where did they miss?
The circle of life for NBA teams is continually turning. As some teams are adding talent and ascending, others are losing talent and rebuilding. However, some teams refuse to take part in the motion.
At the bottom, the Sacramento Kings have been stuck in the bottom 10 since 2005, the longest playoff drought in the league. At the top, the San Antonio Spurs were elite every single year of Tim Duncan’s career.
The Dallas Mavericks, often quietly, have stood apart from the circle as well. Owner Mark Cuban has annually rebuilt the rotation around Dirk Nowitzki, one of his generation’s brightest stars.
Refusing to rebuild, each iteration of the Mavericks has made the playoffs, sans one (2013). This offseason was no different.
While Chandler Parsons and Zaza Pachulia signed elsewhere, the Mavericks re-tooled by bringing in Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut. What was their best move of the offseason? And what move did they miss out on?
Best Move: Trading for Andrew Bogut
Upon Kevin Durant’s verbal agreement to join the Golden State Warriors in July, Andrew Bogut was suddenly available via trade. Many teams may have turned away from dealing with the Warriors, not wanting to help the rich get richer.
But Dallas took advantage of the opportunity to get a quality starting center for next to nothing.
Andrew Bogut’s impact can be measured in two different ways: what he did while on the court, and what the Warriors didn’t do when he was off the court.
Picking up the latter, the Warriors were up 3-1 in the Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers when Bogut went down with a bone bruise to his left knee. Golden State proceeded to lose the following three games and the title.
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More tangibly, Bogut’s on-court numbers show him to be an elite defensive player and a savvy offensive one. He served as the backline to the Warriors’ defense, swatting away the shots of anyone who made it into the paint.
Bogut ranked 4th in the league in blocks per 36 minutes, blocking one shot per 12 minutes he was on the court.
Advanced stats rate him just as highly as a deterrent around the basket. Nylon Calculus’ Rim Protection metric ranks Bogut top-7 in FG percentage allowed at the rim, percentage of shots contested at the rim, and points saved per game.
He ranked first among all players in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus, after finishing second and fifth the last two seasons. He anchored last season’s fourth ranked defense, and in 2015 the Warriors finished first in defensive efficiency.
The Mavericks struggled to stop teams last year, finishing around league average at 16th in defensive efficiency. Dirk Nowitzki, a 37-year old stretch-4, was Dallas’ top ranked rim protector last season, finishing 40th in points allowed at the rim.
Bogut gives the Mavericks something they haven’t had in years, a legitimate shot-blocker.
On offense Bogut will be a solid fit as well; while not his calling card, Bogut played an integral role in the Warriors’ elite offenses the past few years.
Specifically, his skills as a facilitator allowed the Warriors’ shooters to move around off-the-ball to create separation before Bogut hit them for the open shot.
Bogut is not simply a good passer, he’s a great passer. Among centers only Pau Gasol earned more assists per 36 minutes.
At various times Bogut could screen off a guard and then dish them the ball as they ran into the paint; fire a cross-court pass to a newly open shooter; or send a bounce pass right to the rim for an open layup.
With Stephen Curry, Andre Iguodala and Draymond Green on the team, Bogut was the man plays were run through while he was on the court.
Dallas has a team that can work well with Bogut’s offensive talents. Wesley Matthews, Justin Anderson, Devin Harris and Seth Curry are all talented shooters who can move around Bogut to get open, while allowing him to hold the ball at the elbow.
When Nowitzki is on the floor, the Mavericks boast the same 4-out dynamic the Warriors offered.
For a team that refuses to die, adding a veteran center for pennies was an easy move to make. Bogut will shore up the team’s defense while providing ball movement and shrewd decision-making on offense.
While he will become a free agent next offseason, for this year Dallas can make another run knowing the pivot is covered.
Best Move They Didn’t Make: Watching Harrison Barnes’ Finals Tape
Harrison Barnes is an enigma. From one angle, he is a piece of the greatest five-man lineup in NBA history, a starter on the greatest regular-season team of all time, a versatile defender who unlocked the Warriors’ ceiling and started a leaguewide revolution for combo forwards.
At 24, he still has room to grow as a player and has shown flashes of a greater offensive game when given the opportunity.
The other angle tells a different story, of a player inside his own head to the point that Warriors head coach Steve Kerr was forced to start him simply to get anything out of him.
When Barnes missed 16 games due to injury last season, the Warriors didn’t miss a beat, going 16-0 without him. While the former McDonald’s All-American has the pedigree of a lead scorer, neither at UNC or Golden State has he been able to consistently prove that reputation.
Throughout last season’s dominant performance, whispers floated around that the Warriors’ had a shot at signing Kevin Durant. Many fans and members of the media pushed back, insisting that it was better to keep intact the current core, Barnes included.
His willingness to do the dirty work on defense while being the fourth or fifth option on offense allowed the true stars to shine.
But the NBA Finals put a nail in the coffin of Barnes’ contribution to Golden State’s excellence. After going up 3-1 to the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Warriors lost three straight — and twice at home — to watch LeBron James lift up Cleveland’s first trophy.
Over those final three games, the Cavaliers threw extra defenders at the Splash Brothers, walling off the three-point line and ensuring the reigning MVP wasn’t going to defeat them from long range.
This left Harrison Barnes open on nearly every play, and he wholly failed to deliver for his team. He shot a combined 5-for-32 (15 percent) over those last three games, 3-for-15 from distance.
The Warriors were 32 points worse when he was on the court for those three games, including minus-6 in a tightly contested Game 7.
When the Warriors needed something from Barnes, he gave them nothing. Thus when the opportunity arose they cut ties, signing Kevin Durant to fill Barnes’ role on the team. Cast off, the young forward was free to sign with Dallas.
That isn’t to say Harrison Barnes is a terrible player, because he has proven the opposite. On defense he can guard multiple positions, something he displayed during last year’s postseason run to the title.
In their second-round series, he checked Memphis center Marc Gasol, freeing Andrew Bogut to play free safety in the paint. In the next series he joined the platoon guarding 2-guard James Harden, to positive effects.
He is big enough not to be backed down in the paint, while agile enough to guard on the perimeter.
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On offense Barnes has improved his outside shot, hitting 39 percent from 3-point range over the last two seasons. While not a gifted playmaker, he has learned to move the ball when appropriate in the Golden State offense, and likewise has added wrinkles to his game such as cutting off the ball.
Once groomed to be the primary scorer, Barnes learned well how to be a complementary piece.
The problem with Dallas signing Barnes to a maximum four-year, $94 million contract is that they are paying him to be more than a complementary piece.
With Chandler Parsons leaving in free agency, Dallas is going to rely on Barnes to replace his role as the secondary option on offense.
While Dirk will be this team’s lead scorer as long as he is still playing, the Mavericks need someone to step up and score alongside the future Hall-of-Famer.
If Dallas expects Barnes to be that player, they could be disappointed. When given the opportunity to run an offense, Barnes has wilted from the opportunity, even against opposing bench units.
Taken from the nurturing environment of Golden State’s starting lineup, will Barnes even be a starting-caliber player? Paying $94 million to a player with such question marks is borderline insane.
And yet someone else would have paid Barnes, be it Minnesota or Philadelphia or Orlando. The Mavericks needed to get younger and prepare for a future without Dirk Nowitzki. If Rick Carlisle can unlock Barnes’ potential, all the physical tools are present for a solid starter and more.
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But the NBA Finals tape shows a player who wilted under the brightest lights. And the lights in Dallas are not going to be much dimmer.