Portland Trail Blazers: Best Move They Did, Didn’t Make
The Portland Trail Blazers made a surprise playoff run last season, and entered free agency looking to improve on their strong finish. Did they make the right moves to keep their momentum?
Last offseason the Portland Trail Blazers saw four-fifths of their starting lineup leave town, including All-Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge. At the time, that was seen as a clear loss for Portland. But they rebounded to add a number of younger, athletic players, and surprised the league by making it to the second round of the playoffs. Rather than let a negative define their offseason, they balanced it out with a series of positive moves.
That’s the nature of most NBA offseasons, a series of great moves and missed moves that each team tries to weigh in their favor. As we move through the entire league, today the Portland Trail Blazers will be weighed for their most recent offseason.
After adding pieces on the wing and in the frontcourt, Portland locked in their young core for the next four years. What was the best move they made this offseason? And what move did they leave undone?
Best Move They Made: Signing Festus Ezeli
As the free agency period began, the Portland Trail Blazers were linked to a number of players on the open market, from forward Chandler Parsons to center Hassan Whiteside. The team wanted to build on its star power before making decisions on its own restricted free agents.
By the end of the first day, however, it was clear that Portland’s top options were signing elsewhere. They pivoted, adding Evan Turner on the wing, then settled down and waited a few beats. Two things happened during this pause — Kevin Durant announced his intention of signing with the Golden State Warriors, and the center market cooled off after a vigorous beginning.
The Warriors had to make a decision between point guard Shaun Livingston and center Festus Ezeli in order to clear the necessary cap space. As recently as the start of last season, the team would have gladly chosen Ezeli. With elite size and athleticism, the Nigerian center had proven himself to be a great rim protector on defense. On offense, he grew from having hands of stone to commonly finishing at the rim after great catches.
What Ezeli was unable to prove was his ability to stay healthy. After missing the entirety of the 2013-14 with a knee injury, Ezeli was available for only 46 games each of the next two seasons, including last year when he again underwent knee surgery. Although Ezeli showed flashes upon his return, the Warriors’ decision was to let their onetime center of the future walk.
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Ezeli’s injury history combined with a packed center market gave Portland an opportunity, and they pounced. While players such as Timofey Mozgov and Miles Plumlee received $64 million and $52 million respectively on new deals, Ezeli agreed to a two-year contract with the Trail Blazers for $14.7 million, with the second year being a team option.
The contract could go poorly for Portland, a possibility they hedged against with that team option. If Ezeli struggles to stay healthy, head coach Terry Stotts has a number of other options to choose from — Mason Plumlee, Ed Davis and Meyers Leonard all returned — and Portland can cut ties after this season.
Upside is what this contract is all about, and it has plenty. While Portland doesn’t need Ezeli, his rim protection is something they sorely lack. Per Nylon Calculus’ Rim Protection metric, no player in the NBA saved more points per 36 minutes at the rim than Ezeli. In fact, he saved 4.2 points every 36 minutes, and the next closest player was Hassan Whiteside at 2.8.
His contest percentage (frequency of shots taken at the rim while Ezeli was on the court that he contested) ranked third in the league, On a per-minute basis, it’s not outrageous to state that there was no better rim protector in the league last season than Ezeli.
If Festus Ezeli can stay on the court, he can be the backline rim protector that Portland needs. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum work hard on defense, but both struggle to stay in front of their man. Plumlee is a solid defender, and Ed Davis gobbles up defensive rebounds, but neither are on the same plane as Ezeli in rim protection.
By waiting out the center market, the Trail Blazers secured an athletic center in his prime who can meet a serious need without overpaying. That’s the type of shrewd free agency maneuver that general manager Neil Olshey is known for.
Best Move They Didn’t Make: Finding A Complementary Wing
Unfortunately, Olshey did not have a blemish-free offseason, as his biggest move was signing free agent wing Evan Turner to a four-year, $70 million contract. Turner was coming off of a year in which he made less than $4 million playing for the Boston Celtics.
On the surface, Turner doesn’t look like a player who should be making $17.5 million per season, even with the cap taking a significant leap. He averaged 10 points and five rebounds last season as the Celtics’ sixth man, shot 24 percent from three-point range, and had a below-average Player Efficiency Rating of 13.6.
The problems compound when Turner’s fit with the current roster is analyzed. A non-shooter, Turner made his impact on Boston’s success by serving as the primary ball-handler when Isaiah Thomas was not on the court. He averaged 4.4 assists per game and proved to be an above-average playmaker for his size.
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Without the ball, Turner crippled the Celtics’ offense, as teams ignored him because of his lack of shooting. In analyzing his fit, teams interested during free agency would need to determine if Turner’s playmaking was better than their current options. In Portland, that’s simply not the case.
C.J. McCollum was a point guard in college, and last year served as the backup point guard as well as the starting shooting guard, playing staggered minutes with Lillard to keep one of them on the court at all times. This worked out well with Allen Crabbe, who came off the bench to play 2-guard whenever one of Portland’s starting backcourt was off the court. As a shooter, Crabbe was a good fit alongside both players.
Turner, on the other hand, is not a good fit alongside one or both. As a ball-handler, Turner is immediately the third-best in the starting lineup, and he may be the fourth-best passer among the starters because of Mason Plumlee. This completely negates his primary offensive strength. Even if Portland brings him off the bench, they are taking the ball out of a better player’s hands by giving it consistently to Turner.
What the Trail Blazers needed was a shooter on the wing, someone to space the floor around Lillard and McCollum. Playmaking is always a nice skill to have, but if a player is detrimental without the ball in his hands he most likely is not the best fit for this roster. Turner may hurt Portland more than he helps them, and he is being paid $17.5 million a year to do so.
The market wasn’t robust with alternatives, but even keeping the money and taking a flyer would have been advantageous. Brandon Rush had a career year shooting the ball last year, and was an underrated member of the Warriors’ rotation. Courtney Lee is making $5.5 million less per season than Turner with the New York Knicks. Dion Waiters is making $3 million per year in Miami.
Kent Bazemore made the same amount as Turner. He would have been a seamless fit, able to defend 1-3 and developing a strong outside shot over two seasons in Atlanta. Bazemore was the type of player Portland needed, not Turner.
GM Neil Olshey has earned the benefit of the doubt, and Terry Stotts always maximizes the strengths of his roster. Perhaps Turner handling the ball frees Lillard and McCollum up for more off-the-ball movement, and that triggers another level of the offense. Perhaps Turner shakes off his defensive limitations and can adequately guard both forward positions.
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But $70 million is a lot of money for “perhaps.” With Portland entering next season with high hopes, and next offseason with no cap space, this offseason needed to net a great player. Instead Evan Turner has arrived, and it could come back to hurt this franchise.