Atlanta Hawks: Best Move They Did And Didn’t Make
The Atlanta Hawks signed Dwight Howard immediately in free agency, and waved goodbye to Al Horford and Jeff Teague. Were those good moves? Did they miss out on a chance to make their team better?
Our culture is littered with sayings that highlight the back-and-forth nature of life. “You win some, you lose some.” “Two steps forward, one step back.” “No pain, no gain.”
Progress in NBA is the same way; it’s never completely linear, but rather comes with a combination of positives and negatives.
This offseason many teams took steps forward, but never without some number of steps back.
The premier transaction of the Atlanta Hawks offseason was swapping Dwight Howard for Al Horford in the starting lineup.
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Was that the best move they made? Or did they misstep in choosing Howard? Any other move they left undone?
Best Move They Made: Signing Dwight Howard
In a vacuum, Al Horford is a better player than Dwight Howard. Last season he put up more points and assists per game, dropped a three-pointer per a game and was the anchor on an above-average defense. Horford was also available, playing in 82 games vs Howard’s 71.
ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus stat saw Horford as the seventh-best center in the league last season; Dwight Howard ranked 30th.
The NBA doesn’t operate in vacuums, however, and Atlanta needed a change. An 0-12 postseason record against the top dog in the Eastern Conference speaks to the reality that their current core wasn’t going to get the job done against LeBron James and Co.
To that end they signed Howard to a three-year, $70 million contract to come to Atlanta. They did make a push to retain Horford as well, but in the end the lifetime Hawk signed with the Boston Celtics.
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One of their biggest weaknesses last season was defensive rebounding; they ranked 26th in the league in defensive rebounding percentage. Howard was third in the league last season in rebounding and, when engaged on defense, is an elite rebounder.
On offense the Hawks’ free-flowing ball movement strategy will be negated slightly by Howard posting-up and demanding the ball.
Keeping Howard involved on offense early in games sets him up to provide maximum effort on defense, but such a setup could pump the brakes on their offensive philosophy.
That being said, Howard brings a dimension to his game that has been rarely played out. He is a bruising, physical screener who can wall off an entire area of the court.
If Mike Budenholzer and his staff can get Howard to buy into the idea of being a pick-and-roll center, his value to the club will be tremendous.
Opportunity cost also comes into play when evaluating such a decision. Howard is the same age as Horford, but agreed to come to Atlanta on a three-year deal, not the five-year deal Horford and his camp pushed for.
As Howard ages, the Hawks will be able to move on from him soon if necessary; that would not have been the case with Horford no matter how he ages.
It is not clear cut whether the better move was signing Dwight Howard or retaining Al Horford.
But Howard is a good player with elite skills, and for all that he was maligned for coming out of toxic locker rooms in Los Angeles and Houston he has been verbally committed to cutting through the smoke and being a positive locker room influence.
If the Howard of a few years ago emerges at the center of an already skilled Atlanta defense, the Hawks could have the best defense in the NBA.
If he forces himself into a post-up every possession on offense, they could have one of the worst offenses. The reality is probably closer to the middle on both.
But Atlanta changed their ceiling, in some way, by shaking things up. Dwight Howard was a smart signing who could provide elite impact for a Hawks team with high hopes for next season.
Best Move They Didn’t Make: Swing For The Fences In The Draft
The Atlanta Hawks traded veteran point guard Jeff Teague for the 12th pick in this year’s NBA Draft.
The trade made sense for the Hawks; Teague is entering a contract year and with Dennis Schroeder on the team, the Hawks had two low-end starters at the position and didn’t need to pay both. Teague’s ceiling is low; he is never going to develop into a superstar-type player.
After acquiring the 12th pick in the draft, Atlanta had an opportunity to add young talent with upside. Their developmental system has proven with players such as DeMarre Carroll and Kent Bazemore that they can coach up players into stars.
Adding such a player could give them a shot at another star who could step up if and when current stars age or leave the roster down the road.
Those players were available in the draft, at various positions. In an offense that loves shooting big men, Henry Ellenson and Skal Labissiere both had the skill to be outside threats on offense.
Finding the next point guard on this team could have been pursued by selecting Wade Baldwin IV or Dejounte Murray.
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Instead the Atlanta Hawks went with a wing, a low-upside senior in Taurean Prince. The forward out of Baylor is athletic and strong, able to shift down to power forward to guard 4s.
But his upside is as a solid rotation wing who can play tough defense. Barring the wholly unexpected, Prince will never become a star.
With Atlanta’s ability to pick discarded wings off of the scrap heap and turn them into starters, it would have made more sense to trust in “Hawks University” and instead go after a supreme talent lurking in an unproved young player.
With the 22nd pick, the Hawks were still able to draft a wing, taking DeAndre Bembry. Taking just one would have sufficed, opening them up to address other weaknesses such as backup point guard.
No one can truly know who was on Atlanta’s board, or whether the player they could have selected will be better than Prince. But not trying to generate a star makes a non-contending team unlikely to break through the glass ceiling.
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Dwight Howard is a positive piece and the Hawks now have more wing depth than many other franchises just as the league is desperately desiring more. But they may not have done enough to set themselves up to make a run at Cleveland.