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Golden State Warriors: Post-Free Agency Ceiling And Floor

By Josh Cornelissen

Jul 7, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Kevin Durant addresses the media in a press conference after signing with the Golden State Warriors at the Warriors Practice Facility. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 7, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Kevin Durant addresses the media in a press conference after signing with the Golden State Warriors at the Warriors Practice Facility. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Golden State Warriors enter the season as title favorites. But if things don’t go as planned, what is the floor for this team? And how many games can they actually win?

With the dust settling after a wild free agency period, the rosters that teams will display on opening night are mostly set. Therefore, the picture is clearer as to how the seasons will go for the NBA’s 30 teams.

While every fan hopes their team will hoist the trophy, and terrible scenarios exist for injuries to bottom out a team, what are the realistic highs and lows each team could reach?

Over the coming weeks we will take a trip around the league and stop in with each team to determine exactly what those are, beginning with the early title-favorites in Oakland and finishing with the early favorites for the worst record in Brooklyn.

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The weight of a single transaction can outweigh the entirety of a team’s offseason, and that is certainly what took place with the Golden State Warriors. Kevin Durant signing to form the league’s latest super-team dominated headlines, and was rightly the focus of reporting on the team in July.

But Bob Myers, the Warriors’ general manager, and his entire front office should be praised not only for convincing a top-3 player in the league to join their team, but for the smaller moves made on the margins to ensure this team still had depth and room to grow.

From restocking the center cupboard to using draft picks wisely to keep young talent aboard, the Warriors are not the “Big 3” era Miami Heat, forced to desperately cycle through aging veterans to fill out a rotation. The Warriors had to sacrifice important players in order to sign Kevin Durant, but their replacement moves were solid and give this core sustainability past 2017.

Heading Out: Harrison Barnes, SF (signed with Dallas Mavericks); Andrew Bogut, C (traded to Dallas Mavericks); Festus Ezeli, C (signed with Portland Trail Blazers); Marreese Speights, PF/C (signed with Los Angeles Clippers); Leandro Barbosa, G (signed with Phoenix Suns); Brandon Rush, G/F (signed with Minnesota Timberwolves)

Coming In: Kevin Durant, SF (signed, from Oklahoma City Thunder); Zaza Pachulia, C (signed, from Dallas Mavericks); David West, PF/C (signed, from San Antonio Spurs); Damian Jones, C (drafted, No. 30 out of Vanderbilt); Patrick McCaw, G (drafted, No. 38 out of UNLV)

Staying Around: Ian Clark, SG (re-signed); James Michael McAdoo, PF (re-signed); Anderson Varajao, C (re-signed)

2016-17 Outlook: Replacing Harrison Barnes with Kevin Durant accomplishes two major things. First, it gives the Warriors offensive upside that the league has never seen. The amount of open looks that Barnes received would have Durant shooting 80 percent from the field and averaging 40 points a night.

Teams can’t leave him open, which will mean someone else — perhaps Klay Thompson — is getting those open looks. Steve Kerr’s offense and the talent on this roster are too good for anything else to happen.

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    • The second thing it accomplishes is that the Warriors never have to play a minute without a superstar on the court. If Kerr keeps Curry and Draymond paired together, as he did last season, then Durant or Thompson will always be on the court for the six minutes per half Curry rests.

    There will be no stretches of subpar scoring talent trying to force the basketball through the hoop; instead elite shooters will always be available to keep the offense flowing.

    On defense, Golden State will look to work in other newcomers to help replace the elite rim protection of Andrew Bogut, defensive rebounding of Festus Ezeli, and positional versatility of Barnes. Pachulia and West are both strong rebounders, but neither possesses the rim protection skills of Bogut.

    As strange as it might seem for perhaps the greatest collection of talent the league has ever seen, this team may need to rely on near-teenagers to fill their remaining holes. Kevon Looney, the raw big out of UCLA, has the makings of an elite rim protector in his thin frame, and this year’s second-round pick Patrick McCaw could grow to fill in as Andre Iguodala’s understudy as wing-defender extraordinaire.

    Worst-Case Scenario: The idea of simply adding MVP-level kevin Durant to a 73-win team is tantalizing, but in reality it will take time for Durant and the other newcomers to fully acclimate to a new organization, culture, and system.

    While elite talent is what drove the Warriors to a title and a 73-win follow-up, the glue that held them together was their long-time continuity and familiarization. Barnes, Bogut and Ezeli had been there since this core’s first playoff berth in 2013. If that jelling takes time, the Warriors could stumble out of the gate more than is expected.

    They will still win plenty of games, but a team such as the Spurs or Clippers could overtake them for the No. 1 seed, such as the Chicago Bulls did during the Heatles’ first year together. In the playoffs, a cold shooting night paired with a lack of rim protection could make things more difficult than expected, especially if this year they aren’t playing Game 7 at home.

    The floor for this team is higher than any other, but if things are slow to come together an exit in the Western Conference Finals is possible.

    Best-Case Scenario: The Warriors are one of two teams whose ceilings will feel like fanciful creations of an overly optimistic mind, but they are real. If the core of this team stays healthy, the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors could go 82-0.

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    This isn’t likely, but it has to be considered as possible. Last season, if Curry and Thompson were both cold on the same night, the Warriors had a strong possibility of losing. Now they have another top-5 scorer in the league to prop them up. When Kerr decides to sit a star, he can do so knowing his team still fields three top-15 players.

    Last year this team only lost nine games, even though Barnes, Iguodala, Bogut, and Curry all missed time with injuries. If those players — and their replacements — stay relatively healthy, this team might not lose a game.

    Add in the edge the Warriors will play with to avenge their Finals loss and prove they aren’t simply a “regular season” or “jump-shooting” team, and 82-0 has to be in play.

    More hoops habit: New York Knicks: 2016 Offseason Grades

    Premature Prediction: 68-14, 1st in the Western Conference, NBA champions.

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