Toronto Raptors: 3 Lineup Decisions They Need To Consider
The Toronto Raptors have a number of lineup decisions to make in order to maximize their potential in the postseason.
Saturday afternoon, the NBA landscape watched in horror as the 2-seeded Toronto Raptors lost at home to the Indiana Pacers, extending their playoff losing streak to seven games, all as the higher seed. Were Toronto’s playoff issues more than a small sample size? Was this team simply not ready for the big stage?
Toronto responded in a big way, winning the next two games, the most recent in a 101-85 beatdown in Indiana Thursday night, to take back home-court advantage and secure a 2-1 lead over the Pacers. DeMar DeRozan finally got a little momentum, scoring 21 points to match Kyle Lowry for the team lead. DeMarre Carroll also had his best game of the playoffs, scoring 17 points.
The Raptors’ success the last two games has come more from their defense than their offense; Toronto’s starting lineup was a frigid 26-for-68 in Game 3, a 38.2 field goal percentage that was actually an improvement on their 37.4 percent shooting in Game 2 and 29.4 percent in Game 1. The Pacers were held to a 38.2 field goal percentage themselves, and were forced into 16 turnovers.
A 2-1 series lead is a good thing, but it’s not perfect, and Toronto cannot think they are out of the woods yet. Dwane Casey and his staff have a number of adjustments available to them.
Some of those – DeRozan passing the ball out when he is guarded by Paul George, or Lowry and Cory Joseph shooting without hesitation when they have space – are schematic. But Casey also has a number of lineup decisions to consider as Toronto looks to put away the Pacers and look ahead to a second round matchup with the Atlanta Hawks or Boston Celtics.
Starting Power Forward: Luis Scola or Patrick Patterson
The Raptors have started Luis Scola at power forward for much of the year, and each of the first three games of the series. Scola often gets an early yank for Patrick Patterson, and sometimes does not return again until the start of the next half. He is averaging a mere 14 minutes a game to this point.
While Toronto has been positive overall with Scola on the court, it’s a slight positive, +8 points overall over three games. Patterson has been much better, as lineups he takes a part in are a +35 overall for the series. Patterson provides defense, athleticism, and spacing the Scola simply doesn’t, and he is not a liability when his man is the screener on a pick-and-roll. In short, Patterson is a better player.
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But Casey values his role on the second unit as a more gifted offensive player alongside the defense-oriented Bismack Biyombo in the frontcourt. He also provides more spacing in pick-and-rolls with Cory Joseph, which is needed needed since Joseph is a weaker shooter than Lowry.
The concern has to be whether Indiana will seek to exploit Scola’s presence in the starting lineup. If the Pacers don’t fear Scola in the post — as they shouldn’t — starting small with C.J. Miles serving as the nominal power forward could kickstart Indiana’s offense with four shooters around Ian Mahinmi.
Starting Patterson could eliminate that possibility for Indiana, as Patterson would take advantage of Miles in the post. His numbers with the other Toronto starters are tremendous, and his value on bench units may not be needed if the Drakes can jump out to a huge lead and close out the Pacers early.
Looking ahead, if Toronto meets Atlanta in the second round, it’s hard to imagine Luis Scola guarding Paul Milsap or Al Horford. The Raptors may need to decide between starting Patterson or downsizing with Carroll at the 4. Luis Scola has worked hard this season improving his range, but he can’t improve his age, and his time in the starting lineup may need to come to a close.
Backup Wing: Terrence Ross or Norman Powell
Norman Powell emerged late in his rookie season as a confident shooter on the wing, willing to guard anyone on the opposing team and able to provide important spacing around the drives of Lowry and DeRozan. He earned a surprising Game 1 start as DeMarre Carroll continued to work back from knee surgery, but was yanked early and played only a total of 17 minutes.
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Powell blossomed in Game 2, coming in off the bench for the now-starting Carroll and recording a team-high +21 in 22 minutes. Terrence Ross, Powell’s competition for minutes on the wing behind the starters, was a team-low -8 in 10 minutes, sustaining a head injury in the process.
Thus it came as a major surprise that Casey went completely away from Powell in Game 3, giving him only three minutes and instead bringing in Terrence Ross off the bench first. With DeMarre Carroll ramping up to a full workload, there is room in the rotation for only one of the two to get consistent minutes.
Terrence Ross is a few years older than Powell, and nominally has more “experience” for playoff situations. But Powell has demonstrated a lack of fear for the moment, and has outperformed Ross in this series. And although Ross is three inches taller than Powell, his wingspan is four inches smaller, making him less ideal to cover Paul George when Carroll sits.
Casey can probably get away with either option in this series, but going against Atlanta he needs to decide who can provide the most impact in the least minutes, and so far that has proven to be Norman Powell.
Closing Lineup: Defense or Offense?
Dwane Casey has a handful of players who excel at one end of the court or the other. Cory Joseph and Bismack Biyombo were brought in this offseason to provide defense value, and they have delivered, helping the Raptors to a top-10 finish on that end. On the other end, DeMar DeRozan and Jonas Valanciunas are offensive powerhouses who are a step behind on defense.
Which closing lineup is best for Casey? Assuming Kyle Lowry (a dynamic two-way player), DeMarre Carroll (their best wing defender and a decent shooter) and Patrick Patterson (their best two-way big) all close, who should be slotted alongside them?
One option is to split the difference, playing DeRozan — the team’s second star — and balancing that out with Biyombo tracking drivers at the rim. And while that’s a fine lineup against the Pacers, against the Hawks it would make things difficult when determining defensive assignments. Hiding DeRozan on Kent Bazemore means Carroll has to either race around screens chasing Kyle Korver (not his speciality), or try to stay in front of jitterbug point guards in Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder.
Swapping DeRozan out for Joseph eliminates the need to hide someone, but offensively the options are now down to Lowry creating with defenders not fearing Biyombo or Joseph. Swap out Biyombo for Jonas, and the rim is left unprotected if Patterson has to track his man out to the three-point line, as he would against Atlanta or Cleveland.
One option is to downshift even further. Patrick Patterson played only 3.3 percent of his minutes at center this season, per Nylon Calculus, but he was a strong +14.6 in 66 minutes. No one on the Pacers or Hawks would necessarily have an advantage over Patterson.
This puts Carroll at the 4, where he could easily match up with Myles Turner or Paul Millsap. Lowry and DeRozan can be joined by either Joseph or Powell, and suddenly Casey has the makings of a strong offensive and defensive closing unit. The biggest weakness of going small — being out-rebounded — is mitigated by how poorly both Indiana and Atlanta rebound.
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Toronto has a fight ahead of them simply to win the first round, but they have the roster to advance deep into the postseason. If Casey is able to manage his lineups well, he could maximize their potential and attain the playoff success Canada has been yearning for.