With just one game to go, the Denver Nuggets have mere days before focusing efforts on the draft. Who will they decide to take?
After writing an article earlier this week about the needs of the Denver Nuggets, which can be found here, I will now focus on potential targets. In the upcoming 2016 NBA Draft, there are players of varying talent levels and fits, but in this article, I will explore the combination of talent and fit.
On one hand, a prospect may be so talented that he cannot be skipped over, but on the other hand, if a player fits a certain need, he will find a role on the roster. The goal of Denver Nuggets General Manager Tim Connelly is to take these factors into account when making the tough decisions on draft night.
For right now, here’s what I expect the needs of the Denver Nuggets to be come late June (details in previous article):
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Denver Draft Needs
- First option type on offense
- Shooting
- Capable defender
- Diverse power forward of the future
- Draft and stash player internationally
With these five needs going into the draft, the Nuggets will have a set of goals. The first goal is to identify a player that has the ability to assume control of an offense for long periods of time and score efficiently. The second is to find players who can shoot from all ranges. As the season wraps up, the Nuggets own the 21st-best field goal percentage and the 25th-best three-point percentage.
With Emmanuel Mudiay in the lineup for the foreseeable future, the Nuggets will need to surround him with players that shoot efficient percentages.
This isn’t to say that defense isn’t an issue. The Nuggets also own the sixth-worst defensive rating this season, according to NBA.com. If possible, the Nuggets would cater to coach Michael Malone’s strengths and get him another solid defender. With Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic locked in down low, the Nuggets are likely to avoid drafting centers, but every other position could use another plus defender.
This includes power forward, where Kenneth Faried has struggled to play defense for most of his career. While Faried makes highlight-reel blocks on occasion, his positional defense and understanding of rotations have gotten him in trouble. The Nuggets have young players at every position except power forward and if they see a player they like, they should take him.
Finally, with so many guaranteed roster spots (nine guaranteed contracts, one player option, three non-guaranteed contracts), the Nuggets will have to get creative this offseason. With multiple draft picks and a bunch of salary cap space coming in, the team may look to draft a player and stash him internationally.
Denver has done this with its second-round picks in the past, as Jokic and Joffrey Lauvergne have come over and turned from second-round picks to legitimate contributors for the team. The Philadelphia 76ers did this with Dario Saric, the 12th overall pick in 2014.
If a first-round pick needs additional seasoning and is based internationally, then Denver would be wise to look into stashing that prospect for another one to two seasons.
Scoring System
Each draft prospect will be given a score based on their fit with the Nuggets as well as the overall talent level. The most important needs will be weighted the highest, while the highest talent level, or projection to go at a certain level of the draft, will also be given weight.
This is, as they say, an art rather than a science, and I will give number estimations for the value of certain picks in a draft. Here’s the scoring system:
- No. 1 or 2 scorer potential – 5 points
- Projectable shooter – 4 points
- Capable defender – 3 points
- Plays power forward – 2 points
- Off-ball shooter to complement Mudiay – 1 point
- Draft and Stash candidate – 1 point
- Top five projection – 2.0x multiplier
- Top 10 projection – 1.5x multiplier
- Top 20 projection – 1.25x multiplier
- 21-30 projection – 1.0x multiplier
Final scores will be tallied using the top 30 players on Maxwell Ogden’s latest mock draft here at Hoops Habit. The maximum score a player can receive is 32 points, though the maximum score with these prospects is 24. Ties are at my discretion based on how players performed throughout this past season.
Using my scores, I will create a top-20 big board involving the prospects that would fit the profile Denver has put forth. Given that the Nuggets have a reasonable probability to gain a top-three selection in the lottery in addition to the likely pics they will have in the mid-lottery and mid to late teens, a comprehensive ranking involving close to the entire first round is wise.
Many analysts will do a more detailed comparison involving these players, and that is something I will do as we get closer to the draft, but at the outset, here are the players that I believe would do the best in a Denver uniform next season.
1. Brandon Ingram (27): The best combination of fit and talent for the Nuggets is Brandon Ingram. As a top tier prospect with top scoring potential, shooting capability, and projectable defense, Ingram reminds many scouts of Kevin Durant. While I’m no scouting expert, Ingram and Durant showcase many similar characteristics.
Whoever drafts Ingram isn’t drafting Durant 2.0, but they will get a future 20 points-per-game scorer for the next decade.
2. Dragan Bender (24): Bender is another prospect tailor-made for the Nuggets. He misses out on points for not being projected as a plus defender here, but that ranking could certainly change. Bender plays a small role for Maccabi Tel Aviv in Israel, but he has already demonstrated the tools to be a player similar to Kristaps Porzingis, except more offensively gifted.
Furthermore, Bender possesses the option to be stashed for a year or two to give the young core of the Nuggets more time to develop.
3. Jamal Murray (21): One of my favorite prospects in the draft, Murray uses his range in a way similar to Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard to get into the lane and make easy shots inside or get to the foul line.
With top tier scoring potential and range out to 30 feet, Murray has the capability to be a dangerous weapon off the bench for his first couple of years, then hopefully make a transition into the starting lineup to space the floor for Mudiay.
4. Ben Simmons (20): Simmons demonstrates the potential to orchestrate an offense from the power forward position. While his shooting capability and mentality have been called into question, his versatile and two-way star potential are undeniable. He may be the best talent in the draft, which keeps him ranked high even with shooting as valued as it is.
5. Buddy Hield (19.5): Hield gets a bonus over Jaylen Brown because of his legitimate jump shot, which also improves his scoring capability. Many believe that Hield’s game is one dimensional and his last tournament game didn’t help him in any respect, but he can create his own shot off the dribble, and he should be able to do so in the NBA with his athleticism.
Many have compared him to Jimmer Fredette, but his athleticism and length separate him from that comparison. Hield is his own player, and likely a very good one.
6. Timothe Luwawu (17.5): Luwawu is another perfect prospect for the Nuggets. He’s a long, wiry build with potential to fill out his frame, similarly to how Nicolas Batum, another Frenchman, gained muscle mass. He’s a wing prospect who can shoot, play defense, and handle the ball while creating for himself.
He checks the boxes in all of these categories, and as a European, he holds the potential to be stashed a for a year if need be. Luwawu is destined to be a target for Denver based on Tim Connelly’s draft history and eye for talent.
7. Henry Ellenson (16.5): Ellenson is an intriguing piece since he has a ton of potential given some of his tools, but he has a discernible ceiling given a lack of elite athleticism.
As a projectable shooter with range and an ability to score with either hand close to the basket, Ellenson’s ceiling looks a lot like Kevin Love, which would pair nicely with Mudiay’s ability to drive into the lane and Jokic’s facilitation skills.
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His defense will likely leave something to be desired, but with a 6-foot-10 frame and 7-foot-2 wing span, Ellenson looks like the prototypical stretch 4 in the league today.
8. Kris Dunn (16): Kris Dunn is a point guard that can play shooting guard due to his size, but he’s the kind of defender that Malone would like to utilize in his rotation to help improve the perimeter defense. The Nuggets currently employ D.J. Augustin as the backup to Mudiay, and while a nice change of pace offensively, Augustin struggles on the defensive end.
Dunn is the most complete player in the draft outside of Simmons and Ingram, and he would definitely find a place in the rotation in Denver.
9. Furkan Korkmaz (13.75): Korkmaz is another international prospect that has demonstrated incredible capabilities offensively. These tools paint him as a potential piece for Denver, and while he doesn’t demonstrate the same two-way game as Luwawu, Korkmaz is able to come off screens and shoot or take the ball strong to the painted area.
His frame is rail thin, and his potential for filling out the frame is less than desirable, but a solid comparison would be Rudy Fernandez, a prospect who came over and played for a few years in the U.S.
10. Ivan Rabb (13.5): Rabb has shown consistent potential through the year at Cal, demonstrating a combination of length and skill on both ends that scouts salivate over. With a similar frame to Ellenson but more quickness and bounce, Rabb has a higher defensive ceiling and some above the rim potential on the offensive end. He showed off his outside shot on occasion, and that appears to be another projectable skill.
That, said, his scoring potential is definitely less so than Ellenson.
11. Denzel Valentine (12.5): Valentine slides in these rankings due to his defensive liabilities, but his potential as a role player to flourish on a team like Denver is enormous. With a high assist rate and a high three-point percentage, Valentine looks like a flexible piece that could be used to generate offense for the bench unit.
If he’s successful enough, he could move in with the starters and either keep the ball moving or take tough shots and make them. His traits compare nicely to Manu Ginobili, who has carved out a long, illustrious career as a key reserve.
12. Marquese Chriss (12): One of the highest potential prospects in the entire draft, Chriss has some of the highest potential of any of the power forwards outside of Simmons and Bender. With a projectable jump shot and all-around offensive game, Chriss has the mentality to be a first or second option, and as long as his percentages remain relatively efficient, the Nuggets are a great fit.
13. Domantas Sabonis (11.25): Sabonis put up incredible numbers his last year at Gonzaga, and his only real flaws in his game at that level have been shot blocking on defense and athleticism. Overall, he looks like a very solid prospect who carves out an NBA career similar to Luis Scola.
He will never wow anyone with athletic moves, but as a crafty player he will put up good numbers on good percentages and be the thorn in the side of many teams.
14. Deyonta Davis (11.25): Davis is another power forward with raw potential, but his potential is based off of what he can provide a team on the defensive end. His frame and athleticism give him a nice floor as a bench big man who contributes as a hustle player offensively, while mainly focusing on defense and rebounding.
His jump shot needs improvement, but he showed flashes throughout the year.
15. Skal Labissiere (11.25): Labissiere has always had the tools to succeed, but he was never able to put it all together at Kentucky. He has many of the skills a power forward in the NBA needs: range, post potential, shot blocking, and athleticism.
These don’t necessarily make up for his red flags involving basketball IQ, rebounding, and man-to-man defense, but they give scouts something to be excited about. He will likely take some time to develop, but his star potential would look good in a Nuggets uniform.
16. Jaylen Brown (10.5): Brown barely gets the designation as a capable shooter simply because he will have to be in order to succeed in the NBA. He’s a freak athlete who will become a 75th percentile athlete in the NBA. He compares favorably to Stanley Johnson from last year’s draft, who has struggled this year on the offensive end to generate positive looks.
Brown’s defensive capabilities will translate just like Johnson’s have, but unless he continues to work on his outside shot, his athleticism won’t be enough.
17. Wade Baldwin IV (10): Baldwin’s natural position is point guard, but he has the play style and the frame (6-foot-4 height, incredible 6-foot-10 wingspan) to play shooting guard. Baldwin showed off a better than 40 percent shot from three-point range at Vanderbilt.
He showed playmaking potential as well as the most talented distributor on the team, but his future is likely as a combo guard where he can wear multiple hats. He will never be a top scorer, but his two-way skills give him a productive floor and intriguing ceiling.
18. Thon Maker (10): Where in the world to rank Thon Maker? Well for starters, he’s rawer than raw. He does demonstrate major potential given his athletic traits. Playing him at the power forward position where he’s projected would give him a height mismatch over the majority of those players, and he would also have the quickness to beat centers.
His frame is very thin, but he can carry more weight, and with a 9-foot-5.5 standing reach according to Draft Express, his defensive potential is insanely high if he can put it all together.
19. Brice Johnson (9): Johnson didn’t showcase much range at North Carolina, but he wasn’t asked to do so in the flow of the offense. He also shot a high percentage on his free throws, making him a potential candidate to expand his game outward. He has an average frame for a power forward, but as a senior, he excelled in all facets for North Carolina’s Final Four squad.
He plays the right position, and Denver could look to take him later in the first round.
20. Demetrius Jackson (8.75): Jackson plays the point guard position, and while his skills are certainly useful as a shooter and defender, he doesn’t have the size/frame to play next to Mudiay for long stretches. He doesn’t project as a top scorer for a franchise, and as an older college player, he likely couldn’t be stashed. There isn’t a lot of value in this selection.
Honorable Mentions
Juan Hernangomez (8): Hernangomez is another player that Connelly should explore taking. His offensive strengths at the power forward position and athleticism make him a good contrast to Jokic and Nurkic. He has enough range on his jump shot to be dangerous behind the three point line and also shoots a good percentage from the free throw line.
He could be stashed in Europe for a season and brought over as a bench combo forward who pairs well with either center.
Taurean Prince (8): Prince is a versatile wing prospect from Baylor and his physical tools give NBA scouts something to think about in the upcoming draft. He’s not a great shooter, but that’s a skill he could certainly improve. He’s a glue guy type on offense who can hit a shot if left open and collapse the defense with his drives to the paint.
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On defense he’s a real weapon given his combination of strength and mobility. He might not play immediately, but Prince reminds me of Wilson Chandler‘s profile coming out of college. As a potential high flier and versatile defender, Prince could grow into a role that Chandler may be phased out of at some point.
Zhou Qi (8): Zhou is one of the most interesting prospects because he can be stashed internationally, has 7-foot-2 height and 7-foot-6.5 wingspan, and shoots from the perimeter extremely well.
He has awhile before he can contribute, because he’s rail thin at this point, but after a bit of seasoning, he could become a dynamic prospect with an interesting offensive profile and the mentality of an anchor on defense.
*Thomas Bryant was ranked 18th on Maxwell Ogden’s mock draft before announcing his return to college.
Again, the numbers aren’t an exact science, but more of an art. The Nuggets have many needs, which is why they will finish the season with either 33 or 34 wins.
More hoops habit: Future NBA Power Rankings
To recap, the best player for Denver on my board is Brandon Ingram. Timothe Luwawu sneaks his way up to sixth, while Jaylen Brown falls to 16th. Come June, Tim Connelly will have a diverse range of prospects to pick from, and with many players filling many roles, he’s likely to find solid contributors all over the draft board.