Golden State Warriors: 73 Wins Or Die Trying?
By Aaron Mah
Despite dominating the talk of the league, the Golden State Warriors suddenly find themselves stumbling to the ultimate starting line.
Usually at this time of the year, contending teams — especially ones that have clinched home court advantage — rest their players in preparation for the grind of the postseason.
In fact, popularized by the forward-thinking San Antonio Spurs, most modern day contenders periodically, and strategically, give their star players entire games off. Not just the Spurs, the Cleveland Cavaliers are doing it, and likewise with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Meanwhile, in the Bay Area, the Golden State Warriors continue to sit atop of the NBA world. You’d be hard pressed to have a casual conversation about the NBA without the words, “Stephen Curry,” uttered out of someone’s mouth.
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However — and this might be crazy to suggest — despite dominating the talk of the league, the Dubs suddenly find themselves stumbling to the starting line (because, after all, the Larry O’Brien Trophy should still be the ultimate goal, right?).
Their best players either look exhausted (Curry) or irritated (Draymond Green) as they continue to chase the mythical G.O.A.T. of Michael Jordan and the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.
They’re killing themselves out there, doing the exact opposite of conventional wisdom — effectively beginning their playoffs a good three weeks before they officially commence.
Every game they have played over the past month has been the opponent’s Super Bowl — case and point, suffering two nail-biting losses at the Oracle in a five-day span after going undefeated at home for their first 37 contests in Oakland.
Remember how we used to applaud Golden State — as a result of their unadulterated dominance for the first three quarters — for giving their starters the luxury of not having to play every other fourth quarter? Well, those are coming fewer and farther in between as we hit the home stretch, a juncture in time when most contending teams want to hit their peak stride.
So, are the Warriors burning out? Well, for one, their Big Three are all playing materially more minutes than last season.
To be more specific, with three games left on the docket, Green has already played 220 more minutes than the year prior, while Klay Thompson has logged an additional 113.
Warriors last looked tired mentally w/ season-opening winning streak. In some ways, 73 more mentally challenging than playoffs. Can't lose.
— Nate Duncan (@NateDuncanNBA) March 22, 2016
Most alarming, though, is Curry, who’ll break his minutes played mark last season next game and is looking increasingly more fatigued with each passing month.
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Look, the Baby-Faced Assassin has become a national icon, the player every kid in the park tries to emulate, and his play this year has certainly garnered such high regards. In fact, by most advanced metrics, Curry was having the best offensive season of all-time when the calendar year reached March — on pace to set new all-time marks in Player Efficiency Rating, Win Shares Per 48 Minutes, Value Over Replacement Player and Box Plus/Minus.
But, over the past month and a bit, Curry — who’s still playing at an elite level for any mere mortal — has worn out of his historic pace.
Explicitly, since the beginning the March, the Chef is “only” averaging 27.9 points in 35.2 minutes per game, on a True Shooting Percentage of 62.5. In comparison, Steph began the year putting up over 30.7 points in just 33.9 minutes a contest, while scoring on a blistering TS% of 68.5.
Seeing such empirical evidence, it is hard to deny the burnout of the Golden State Warriors.
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An underlying question has emerged: will chasing 73 be their ultimate downfall?
The Dubs looked like the surefire dynasty of the next decade just a couple of months ago, but their chances of repeating — the true hallmark of a historic team — may be in serious jeopardy.