NBA: Dangers Of The Long Game In Short-Term NBA

Sam Hinkie’s bold, audacious experiment ended Wednesday as he resigned as general manager of the Philadelphia 76ers. Can the long game work in the NBA?

The NBA is nothing if not a place where general managers have to do an incredibly delicate balancing act between the long game and the short term.

Changes to the collective bargaining agreement that brought owners cost surety in the form of maximum salaries and contract lengths have added to the challenges GMs face when building a roster.

When Sam Hinkie was hired as president and general manager of the Philadelphia 76ers in May 2013, he brought with him from his role as an executive with the Houston Rockets a bold, audacious plan that would tear down the Sixers in order to build them up.

The tearing down, as it turned out, was the easy part. The roster detonated, the 76ers were 19-63 in Hinkie’s first season at the helm in 2013-14.

That was followed by an 18-64 mark in 2014-15 and the 76ers will finish with the NBA’s worst record this season, as they are 10-68 with four games to play.

So the on-the-floor tally for Hinkie’s tenure is a less-than-sterling 47-195.

But the impact of Hinkie’s time in Philadelphia will have to wait awhile for a true measurement, so the rushes to judgment today to call the Hinkie “process” a failure are extraordinarily premature.

The Process

Hinkie’s plan had two key elements—the draft and stockpiling assets in the draft.

As for the second part of that, the 76ers have accumulated, by draft year (in addition to their own picks), per RealGM.com:

2016

First-round pick swap with Golden State Warriors (not likely to be invoked, shockingly enough).
First-round pick from Los Angeles Lakers (top-three protected; pick becomes top-three protected in 2017 and unprotected in 2018).
First-round pick from Miami Heat (top-10 protected; this pick will convey).
First-round pick from Oklahoma City Thunder (top-15 protected; this pick will convey).
First-round pick swap with Sacramento Kings (not likely to be invoked unless Sacramento leapfrogs Philadelphia in the lottery).

The Flaws With The Process

Guesswork and bad luck are at the root of where “The Process” went off the rails in Philadelphia.

The NBA Draft is not an exact science and Sam Hinkie had the poor timing of having his first draft fall in 2013 when (a) he only had pick No. 11 in the first round because of Philadelphia’s middling 34-48 finish in 2012-13 and (b) the draft pool turned out to be historically bad.

With his own pick, he took Michael Carter-Williams of Syracuse, who would be named Rookie of the Year of an extremely thin class. By dealing point guard Jrue Holiday to the Pelicans, Hinkie also landed the rights to Kentucky center Nerlens Noel, the No. 6 overall selection.

Noel came in with a bad knee, the result of an ACL tear during his lone collegiate season, and did not play in 2013-14.

Following the 19-63 season in 2013-14, the 76ers had the second-best chance of securing the No. 1 overall pick behind the Milwaukee Bucks, who bottomed out unexpectedly to 15-67.

The lottery gods betrayed Hinkie and the Sixers, jumping the Cleveland Cavaliers to the top and pushing the 76ers down to third. They also had the No. 10 pick from the Pelicans as a result of the previous year’s trade.

After losing out on the two “sure-thing” picks in Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker, Hinkie made the gamble of his tenure and rolled the dice on medically red-flagged center Joel Embiid of Kansas.

He doubled down by trading the 10th pick, Elfrid Payton, to the Orlando Magic for the rights to No. 12 overall selection Dario Saric.

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Two years in and neither Embiid nor Saric have logged a single NBA minute.

This is less than optimal, even for a team playing the long game.

The 2015 draft came with the 76ers again drafting third, finishing ahead of both the Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves despite winning only 18 games. The Los Angeles Lakers jumped the Knicks and Sixers to select second, with Philadelphia at least getting the third pick.

Whereupon Hinkie took another big man in Duke’s Jahlil Okafor, the safest available pick even if Kristaps Porzingis—taken with the next pick by the Knicks—may appear to have more star potential.

Bad luck and bad timing had as much to do with anything that happened in Philadelphia on Hinkie’s watch as any flaws with the plan he put in play.

The Risk Of The Long Game

Sam Hinkie wanted to play the long game, hoping to break a decades-long cycle of being stuck in the dreaded middle-class of the NBA—good enough to occasionally make the playoffs, never bad or lucky enough to land a top-caliber pick in the draft—by blowing the whole thing up and essentially turning the Sixers into an expansion club.

That part worked. But here is where the vagaries of the CBA begin to come into play.

The club will have to make a decision over the offseason on whether or not to offer Nerlens Noel an extension—he’s already at the point where he’s entering the fourth year of his rookie contract.

Noel may not want to extend with a team that has 47 wins in three seasons. His options would be to enter restricted free agency next summer or accept a one-year tender and become unrestricted in 2018 (the Greg Monroe strategy to get away from the Detroit Pistons).

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One can debate whether or not Noel—considered the top prospect in the 2013 draft pool before his injury and before the Cavaliers inexplicably opted to choose Anthony Bennett with the first pick—is a franchise cornerstone.

But the clock is ticking, as it is for Embiid, whose rookie deal will be half complete (at a minimum) before he makes his NBA debut.

That sort of makes the long game a risky play.

Throw in the vagaries of the draft and how many of those “can’t miss” prospects do just that and suddenly the long game can take on the appearance of snake oil or fool’s gold.

Blowing up the franchise is one thing. Blowing it up over and over and over again is something else entirely.

Jun 25, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Jahlil Okafor (Duke) greets NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the number three overall pick to the Miami Heat in the first round of the 2015 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /

The Fallacy Of The Draft

It’s been said so many times that it’s cliche at this point: Championship teams build through the draft, which was the key element of Hinkie’s plan, his process.

But how many of the top three picks from, say, the last 10 years have been essential to the drafting team winning a title? The top three picks are important because those are the creme de la creme, the picks determined by the lottery.

The track record from 2006 to the present for those top three picks, in terms of taking the team that drafted them to the hoisting of the Larry O’Brien Trophy, is not for the faint of heart.

UNITED STATES – OCTOBER 09: Basketball: Toronto Raptors Andrea Bargnani (7) in action vs Washington Wizards Brendan Haywood (33) during preseason game, Washington, DC 10/9/2006 (Photo by Simon Bruty/Sports Illustrated/Getty Images) (SetNumber: X76811 TK1 R1) /

2006

Andrea Bargnani (1st overall, Toronto Raptors): Played seven seasons with the team, which had two first-round exits (2007 and 2008) while Bargnani was there.
LaMarcus Aldridge (2nd overall, Chicago Bulls): Traded to Portland Trail Blazers on draft night.
Adam Morrison (3rd overall, Charlotte Bobcats): Yeah, about that. Played parts of two seasons with Charlotte, missing all of 2007-08 with a knee injury and has been out of the NBA since 2010.

2007

Greg Oden (1st overall, Portland Trail Blazers): Missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury, played only 82 games in following two seasons before being waived in March 2012.
Kevin Durant (2nd overall, Seattle SuperSonics): The 2013-14 MVP has made multiple All-Star appearances and took the Oklahoma City Thunder to the 2012 NBA Finals, which they lost in five games to the Miami Heat. Team has twice lost in conference finals and has made five postseason appearances (this year will be six).
Al Horford (3rd overall, Atlanta Hawks): Four-time All-Star for the Hawks, who have reached the postseason in all nine seasons he’s been there, reaching the conference finals just once.

2008

Derrick Rose (1st overall, Chicago Bulls): The 2010-11 MVP played just 100 games from 2011-15, missing the entire 2012-13 season. A three-time All-Star, but the Bulls have made just one conference finals appearance during his tenure and are in danger of missing the postseason for the first time since he was drafted.
Michael Beasley (2nd overall, Miami Heat): Played two seasons with team before he was traded in July 2010. Miami lost in first round each of those two years.
O.J. Mayo (3rd overall, Minnesota Timberwolves): Traded to Memphis Grizzlies on draft night.

NEW YORK – JUNE 25: NBA Commissioner David Stern shakes hands with the second overall draft pick by the Memphis Grizzlies, Hasheem Thabeet during the 2009 NBA Draft at the Wamu Theatre at Madison Square Garden June 25, 2009 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

2009

Blake Griffin (1st overall, Los Angeles Clippers): Missed rookie year with broken kneecap, 2010-11 Rookie of the Year has not advanced beyond the second round.
Hasheem Thabeet (2nd overall, Memphis Grizzlies): Traded in February 2011 during second season, never played a postseason game for Grizzlies. Out of the NBA since 2014, last played at all in the D-League in 2014-15.
James Harden (3rd overall, Oklahoma City Thunder): Was Sixth Man of the Year in 2011-12 and helped Thunder reach NBA Finals before he was traded just prior to rookie-deal extension deadline.

2010

John Wall (1st overall, Washington Wizards): Three-time All-Star has played just twice in the postseason, losing in the second round each time.
Evan Turner (2nd overall, Philadelphia 76ers): Traded at February 2014 deadline, reached second round with Sixers in 2011.
Derrick Favors (3rd overall, New Jersey Nets): Traded at February 2011 deadline as a rookie.

2011

Kyrie Irving (1st overall, Cleveland Cavaliers): Three-time All-Star, helped Cavaliers to NBA Finals before injuring his knee in Game 1 in 2015.
Derrick Williams (2nd overall, Minnesota Timberwolves): Traded in November 2013, never played in postseason with Minnesota.
Enes Kanter (3rd overall, Utah Jazz): Traded at February 2015 deadline, Jazz swept in lone playoff appearance in 2012.

2012

Anthony Davis (1st overall, New Orleans Hornets): One playoff sweep in 2015 despite three All-Star selections.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (2nd overall, Charlotte Bobcats): One playoff sweep in 2014, has had shoulder injury issues in 2015-16.
Bradley Beal (3rd overall, Washington Wizards): Oft-injured contributor to two second-round playoff exits.

2013

Anthony Bennett (1st overall, Cleveland Cavaliers): Traded in August 2014 after injury-plagued rookie year, currently out of the NBA after being waived March 1 by Toronto.
Victor Oladipo (2nd overall, Orlando Magic): Has yet to see a postseason appearance in Orlando.
Otto Porter (3rd overall, Washington Wizards): Emerged as a starter this season, played big role in postseason in 2015 (second-round exit).

2014

Andrew Wiggins (1st overall, Cleveland Cavaliers): Traded in August 2014 before playing for Cavaliers.
Jabari Parker (2nd overall, Milwaukee Bucks): Missed most of rookie year with knee injury.
Joel Embiid (3rd overall, Philadelphia 76ers): Has not played due to foot injuries.

The grand total of titles won with drafting franchise? That would be zero.

Obviously, the book is still open on many of these players (including the top three picks in 2015, Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell and Jahlil Okafor), but the tally to this point is almost enough to make a GM turn to free agency and trades.

If you dig deeper into the lottery picks from those drafts (2006-14), you can find some players with championship bling as a key performer for the club that drafted them. Just not, you know, a lot:

Feb 3, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11) and Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) stand on the court against the Washington Wizards at Verizon Center. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports /

2006: None
2007: None
2008: None
2009: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors 2015 (7th overall).
2010: None
2011: Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors 2015 (11th overall).
2012: Harrison Barnes, Golden State Warriors 2015 (7th overall).
2013: None
2014: None

Nine years, 126 players selected in the lottery, three rings, all from the same team.

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