The Atlanta Hawks have promoted Jeff Teague as their star point guard, but he’s looking more ordinary than ever
Atlanta Hawks point guard Jeff Teague has been on the cusp of the Eastern Conference’s elite point guard list for the better part of this decade, culminating in his first All-Star game appearance in the 2014-15 season. Unfortunately, it appears as if that’s as good as he’ll ever be.
His 15.9 points, 2.5 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 1.7 steals per game were enough to land him a spot in last year’s All-Star game, and his plus-8.2 points per-100 possessions was something that we thought would signal his ascension to the top of the point guard rankings. Instead, he’s regressed to the point where some folks wonder if Dennis Schroder is the better option.
::whispers::
— Brad Rowland (@BTRowland) January 20, 2016
The Hawks are +10.4 w/ Schroder on the court.
The Hawks are -2.3 w/ Teague on the court.
Take a look at some raw Teague stats, and remember that the Hawks are 26-17, leading their division by three games:
- Shooting 42.3 percent on 2-pointers, worst mark of his career
- Posting a minus-2.9 points per-100 possessions, tied for worst of his career
- The Hawks are 12.2 points worse per-100 possessions with Teague on the court
- Shooting just 52.5 percent inside three feet, worst of his career
If the rest of the squad was having a down year, one could understand Teague’s dropoff. In reality, the Hawks are No. 10 in the league in both offensive and defensive rating, and are the recipients of a career year from Paul Millsap. It’s not a down year for the club, rather a downward slide for Teague.
SCHRODER VS. TEAGUE
In a vacuum, Teague’s numbers wouldn’t be horrible. He isn’t playing a ton of minutes (28.7 per game) and his averages of 14.8 points, 5.6 assists and 1.2 steals aren’t terrible. The fact that he’s shooting 40.2 percent from three gives the Hawks a more dynamic point guard in Teague, which they’ve wanted from the for years.
With that said, if Schroder were a slightly better shooter, this wouldn’t even be a comparison this season. Adjusted to per-36 minutes, Schroder’s numbers are right there with Teague’s, and the team has performed much better with Schroder out there.
| Player | G | MP | FG% | 3P% | 2P% | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | 41 | 876 | .414 | .323 | .456 | .789 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 17.8 |
| Jeff Teague | 40 | 1149 | .418 | .402 | .423 | .841 | 3.3 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 18.5 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/21/2016.
Looking at lineups, the top three in terms of net points per-100 possessions all feature Schroder, with Teague on the bench. Granted, the sample sizes aren’t enormous (35, 46 and 49 minutes), but a look at the most common lineup thus far (Kent Bazemore, Al Horford, Kyle Korver, Millsap, Teague) shows us an ugly minus-4.7 net points.
Over the team’s last nine games (Hawks 5-4 during the stretch), the difference in success between the point guards has become even greater. Is there any real question which guard is performing better right now?
| Last 9 G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | +/- |
| Teague | 25.9 | 11.3 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 1 | -5.1 |
| Schroder | 21 | 10.6 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 1.1 | 10.5 |
What head coach Mike Budenholzer needs to decide is whether this is a result of Schroder playing against the second units, if Teague is really on the downside of his career or a bit of both.