New York Knicks: Too Early To Trade Melo, Commit To Kristaps Porzingis

Is this “trade Melo and commit to Porzingis” rhetoric grounded in logic or impatience for the New York Knicks?

For New York Knicks fans, the last few years have been anything but easy.

A promising, 20-point blowout over the then-reigning champion Miami Heat in the Knicks’ 2012-13 season opener paved way to a new era of New York basketball — one that was founded on ball-movement and a commitment to defense.

One that resulted in 54 regular season wins, brought the Knicks to the second-round of the playoffs, and oh — one that ended as quickly as it had started.

Since that fruitful 2012-13 campaign, the New York Knicks have inexplicably sat in the NBA’s cellar, going a combined 54-110 during that time.

Things got worse for the Knicks when, despite having the second-worst record in the NBA, the team was only given the fourth overall pick in the 2015 draft. When Phil Jackson used it to select Kristaps Porzingis, a seven-foot Latvian gamble, Knicks fans were appalled.

At the time, their booing was warranted. This pick, after all, was the Knicks’ one ticket back to relevancy, and instead of going safe with Emmanuel Mudiay or Justise Winslow, the Zen Master decided to chance on one of the biggest crapshoots in the entire draft.

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It’s funny, now nearly six months after draft night, that Porzingis’ future in New York is seemingly guaranteed, while that of Carmelo Anthony is up in the air. The tables have turned, and the 20-year-old rookie has been the Knicks’ shining star this season, rather than Anthony, who’s in the midst of the worst season of his career.

Anthony is just two seasons removed from being the league’s leading scorer and a bonafide MVP candidate. Yet at 31 years old and struggling more than ever, questions regarding Melo’s efficacy with this New York team are surfacing.

While trade rumors regarding the star forward is no new narrative, the hype that has generated behind Porzingis has left some Knicks fans ready to abandon the already-sinking U.S. Carmelo Anthony and commit to building around Porzingis.

They do have a point; (sarcasm) why not trade away your only All-star and build around a 20-year-old after signing multiple win-now free agents this summer? Porzingis — just like any seven-footer with a jumpshot — is the next Dirk Nowitzki, right? Just like Adam Morrison and Kelly Olynyk before him!

Of course, comparing Porzingis to Morrison, one of the most notorious draft busts in NBA history, is criminally unfair, but the point is that with any young talent — however promising he looks — a degree of uncertainty follows. Porzingis may look like a star in the making, and could turn out as one when it’s all said and done.

But is this “trade Melo and commit to Porzingis” rhetoric grounded in logic or impatience?

All signs point to the latter. Keep in mind that the end game of every NBA franchise is to consistently produce wins. While Carmelo Anthony doesn’t necessarily pack a punch like he used to, the New York native is still an All-Star putting up 21.5 points per game in his home state, right?

He’s still a go-to scorer, he’s still an effective spot-up shooter, and he’s still a veteran leader, even at 31. He may not be the superstar that New York thought he would be, but Melo is still producing, and production is what counts.

Oh, and he still has his no-trade clause, so finding trade partners that would give something in return would prove to be an even more difficult task.

Even if the Knicks were to find a partner with whom they could dump Melo, what would that guarantee for the franchise? Porzingis has shown promise in his current role, but who’s to say he’d be seeing the same degree of success if Melo wasn’t in town, attracting most of the defensive attention?

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Anthony’s usage rate approaches 30 percent, while Porzingis’ hovers at about 22. A higher usage rate make it harder to maintain efficiency, and Porzingis already struggles with his consistency on the offensive end, suggesting that he’s already playing out of his comfort zone a bit.

Hence the reason Melo has to stay right now: Porzingis, who possesses a unique blend of size and skill, needs to find his NBA niche before he’s sent out to the front lines, and putting him in a position that asks him to do too much too quickly could stunt his development, rather than accelerate it.

That isn’t to say that Porzingis doesn’t already look excellent on both ends; he does. The rookie has already had five 20-plus-point outings, and is already getting isolation sets called for him.

Though they comprise just 6.4 percent of his total offense, Porzingis has been excellent in iso situations, shooting 50 percent overall and producing 0.92 points per shot, a solid mark when considering Anthony produces 0.95 points per shot in the same situations. Furthermore, Porzingis isolations result in at least one point 46.2 percent of the time. Melo’s number? 46.4 percent.

Though the pendelum has swung back and the NBA has shifted more towards more team-oriented play, a certain capacity for isolation is all but required among all NBA superstars. The very nature of the play, after all, tests the ability to create by a single player, taking most other circumstantial variables out of the picture.

Porzingis’ success in these sets is encouraging, though he does turn the ball over 11.5 percent of the time when he’s going one-on-one.

So if Porzingis is creating so well, why not just hand him the torch? Well, the turnover number serves a good indication of why: Porzingis is decent in isos, but he can be out of control at times — an undesirable, yet understandable trait for someone who possesses the size he does. Isolation is all about staying a step ahead of your defender, and if Porzingis is stumbling around or telegraphing his next move, it renders him ineffective.

Enter Carmelo Anthony, arguably the best isolation scorer in the entire NBA. The “mano y mano” aspect of Anthony’s game has been a staple since his days at Syracuse, and he’s built a Hall of Fame career off of it.

Even if Carmelo isn’t producing the way he once did, his calculated, and often unnoticed idiosyncrasies in iso sets separate him from the crowd just as much as his midrange jumper and size do. And thankfully for Porzingis, said behaviors can be taught and replicated, which has surely played a role in the Latvian’s early success in this field.

Obviously there’s more to the game than isolation, which is why many believe Melo has come up short in his quest for a ring, but the point is that Melo does so many things well, and having him around to mentor Porzingis is absolutely crucial for the young forward’s maturation.

But once again, everything goes back to the fact that Porzingis is still in those developmental stages. Those who are calling to trade Melo and “build around” Porzingis fail to address the inherent issue with that blueprint — it’s impossible to build around a player who hasn’t even discovered his niche at the NBA level yet.

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Sorry, Knicks fans, but the recipe for success isn’t to surround an already young and unproven player with even more young and unproven players. For now, you’ll just have to deal with a six-time All-NBA player, former leading scorer and eight-time All-Star instead.