Ogden’s Opus: Dispelling The Most Prominent NBA Draft Myth
A myth exists in NBA Draft circles—one that ignores the larger majority of contemporary stars. Let’s get to the bottom of it.
The NBA Draft is an event unlike any other in the world of professional sports. There are two rounds and 60 picks, and more times than not, the top five selections are dedicated to those with immense upside and youth on their side.
Of course, it’s entirely possible to find quality players outside of that range. Contemporary standouts ranging from Draymond Green and Kawhi Leonard to Kyle Lowry and Isaiah Thomas highlight the non-freshmen who have overcome draft snubs to reach NBA stardom.
Despite the telling signs that it’s a flawed approach, an analyst-driven strategy has developed. The foundation of it to avoid non-freshmen like the plague during the early stages of the NBA Draft.
Once a prospect reaches 20 years of age, two words are most commonly associated with their draft stock: “Limited upside.”
If a player completes just two seasons as a collegiate athlete, they’re branded like cattle as players worth being skeptical of. Age may play more of a factor than class, but if a prospect isn’t a freshman, they generally have no shot at the No. 1 overall selection in the NBA Draft.
Since Andrea Bargnani went No. 1 overall in 2006, eight of the nine players selected with the top pick have been freshmen.
More from NBA
- Meet Cooper Flagg: The best American prospect since LeBron James
- Are the Miami Heat laying the groundwork for their next super team?
- Sophomore Jump: 5 second-year NBA players bound to breakout
- Constructing the NBA’s perfect all-under-25 starting five
- Grading every NBA team’s highest draft pick in the last five years
That isn’t a terrible strategy. Those players are young and developable, thus granting an NBA organization with the opportunity to both build around a true centerpiece and develop the supporting cast at a slower and more realistic pace.
It’s also worth noting that four of those players have made the All-Star Game. The most recent two, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, are already standouts; Wiggins won Rookie of the Year in 2014-15 and Towns is the favorite in 2015-16.
Thus, the following must be clarified: this article is not suggesting that general managers should discredit freshmen as top options in the NBA Draft.
Pursuing a player with youth on their side is a proven strategy that can work wonders for an organization. Generally speaking, the expectation of a championship doesn’t arrive until they’re deep enough into their career to have already developed a postseason-caliber skill set.
Here’s the thing: just because you have the opportunity to be patient doesn’t mean you should be.
Dispelling the Myth
As previously alluded to, eight of the past nine players to be selected at No. 1 overall have been freshmen. What wasn’t touched upon was how dominant that one exception has been since entering the NBA.
Blake Griffin, selected at No. 1 overall in 2009, is a five-time All-Star with four All-NBA appearances in five completed seasons.
Griffin missed what was supposed to be his rookie season with a knee injury, which means he didn’t start his NBA career until the age of 21. That age is often associated with players who have already reached the point of being the players they’re going to be—silly, I know.
As Griffin, who has transformed from a dunk artist to the complete offensive package at power forward, proves, the theory is asinine.
In 2015, 28 players were named All-Stars, including four who appeared on the rosters as injury replacements. Of those 28 players, 16 spent at least two seasons on a college basketball team.
Of the 12 who didn’t, three played professionally overseas—Pau Gasol, Marc Gasol and Dirk Nowitzki—before coming to the NBA at no younger than 20. Four of the remaining nine players were drafted more than 10 years ago.
In other words, only five players who made the All-Star Game in 2015 were one-and-done freshmen who arrived after the association banned high school seniors from entering the NBA Draft.
Contrary to popular belief, ignoring experienced players for the upside of a one-and-done freshman isn’t the safest strategy.
It’s Not Just All-Stars
Aside from the individual postseason awards, there is no greater regular season honor than being named All-NBA. It’s an exlusive list of 15 players, featuring six guards, six forwards and three centers—all of whom have been voted as the very best at their respective positions.
Thus, it’s quite noteworthy that eight of the 15 players named All-NBA in 2014-15 spent more than one season in college.
For all of the one-and-done hype, players with multiple seasons of college experience are becoming stars at just as consistent a rate as the big-name freshmen.
If you’re calling that a fluke, don’t; eight of the 15 players on the 2013-14 All-NBA rosters played more than one season in college, as well. The same could be said for 2012-13: eight of the 15 players on the All-NBA rosters spent at least two seasons on a Division I college basketball team.
For all of the one-and-done hype, players with multiple seasons of college experience are becoming stars at just as consistent a rate as the big-name freshmen.
Freshmen are still worth gambling on in the NBA Draft, and they could overtake the more experienced batch in future seasons. The reality is, there have been three consecutive seasons of an identical trend that supports drafting a player with at least two years of college experience.
That doesn’t mean sophomores, juniors and seniors are better than freshmen, but it shows that the playing field is far more level than the working theory would suggest.
What About MVP?
If All-NBA isn’t a strong enough measurement for you, then how about the greatest regular season achievement in the world of sports: MVP? Recently, a vast majority of these winners have been freshmen or high school graduates.
LeBron James offsets any targeted balance having won four MVP awards since coming out of high school, Derrick Rose was a one-and-done star with the Memphis Tigers, and Kevin Durant spent just one season with the Texas Longhorns, which thus accounts for six of the past seven award-winners.
In 2014-15, however, the three men who took the NBA by storm and dominated the MVP race were all players who spent at least two seasons in college: Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors, James Harden of the Houston Rockets, and Russell Westbrook of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Curry won league MVP honors, Harden was voted MVP by the NBPA, and Westbrook did things that we haven’t seen since Michael Jordan.
Just like that, the stars of the new generation surfaced in the form of players with multiple seasons of college experience. This doesn’t make them any better than one-and-done stars such as Anthony Davis or Durant, but it shows that the notion of non-freshmen being “too old” is unfounded.
If anything, the past three seasons have proven that teams should put more stock into players who have spent multiple seasons in college.
There Is No Agenda
To be perfectly clear, this isn’t a propaganda piece that’s attempting to convince young athletes to spend more time in college. That’s a conversation for another day and time, entirely.
Instead, this is an attempt to stand up for the sophomore, junior and senior players who miss out on millions of dollars because of the NBA Draft myth that they’re too old to be selected near the top.
Rather than focusing too much on the upside a player possesses, monitor the progress they’ve made. Acknowledge the value of the 20-year-old’s experience, the development of the 21-year-old’s skill set, and the tenacity that the 22-year-old plays with.
For all you know, that could be reigning league MVP Stephen Curry—a three-year star for the Davidson Wildcats—being passed over in the Top 10.
It could be reigning Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard, who spent two seasons with the San Diego State Aztecs. Perhaps it’s 2015 Most Improved Player Jimmy Butler, who turned 22 less than three months after he was drafted.
It might even be reigning scoring champion Russell Westbrook, who completed an illustrious two seasons and 75 games with the UCLA Bruins.
No one needs to reinvent the wheel, nor should they shy away from the tell-tale signs of a player having upside. When it comes to evaluating prospects in the NBA Draft, however, the best advice I can offer is as follows.
Trust history. It states that taking a chance on a worthy non-freshmen can elevate a franchise to entirely new heights.
Just ask the Golden State Warriors how it’s been building around junior entrants Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, senior prospect Draymond Green, and sophomore star Andre Iguodala.
Quote: That’s How the Game Goes
"“That’s how the game goes sometimes,” Barton said. “You never know. You might have to make a 3. You might have to throw somebody’s shoe into a crowd.”"
If you’re confused by what you just read, don’t worry; you’re not alone. “You might have to throw somebody’s shoe into a crowd,” isn’t an idiom or proverb, but a real sentence that means exactly what it says.
According to Christopher Dempsey of The Denver Post, those words belong to Denver Nuggets wing Will Barton. They followed a game during which Barton scored 23 points to lead the Nuggets past the Houston Rockets 114-108.
More applicably, they followed a game during which Barton received a technical foul for throwing Trevor Ariza’s shoe into the crowd.
Just another day in the NBA.
Under the Radar: Jae Crowder, Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics invested serious time and money into the future of versatile forward Jae Crowder. He signed a $35 million contract with Boston this past summer, attaching himself to the organization for five guaranteed years.
At the time, it seemed like an overzealous investment to make in a player of Crowder’s caliber given the number of years he was signed for. If 2015-16 is any indication of what’s to come, however, Crowder could be one of Brad Stevens’ most valuable assets moving forward.
He’s an opportunistic defender who racks up steals and contests shots. He’s also a versatile offensive player who can shoot with range, attack off the bounce and post up smaller defenders.
No one area of his game is elite, but the former Big East Player of the Year is earning his millions with his versatility and averages of 12.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.7 3-point field goals made per game in 2015-16.
NBA Draft Stud: Henry Ellenson, Marquette Golden Eagles
The last time a Marquette Golden Eagles player was selected in the Top 10 of the NBA Draft was 2003, when Dwyane Wade went to the Miami Heat at No. 5 overall. Since then, Marquette has produced a number of high-caliber players, including Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Wesley Matthews.
As Butler and Crowder display, the theme with Marquette players in the NBA is versatility—something freshman big man Henry Ellenson embodies. He isn’t like any of the players who have come before him, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
Ellenson is a 6’10” power forward who can shoot with range, dominate the glass, facilitate for his teammates and go to the post. He’s a hard worker who has lost over 30 pounds since 2012 and routinely out-hustles the opposition for loose balls and rebounds.
There are concerns about his defensive consistency and his ability to fall in love with his perimeter game, but Ellenson has all of the tools to be a true impact player at the next level. Keep an eye on one of the Big East’s brightest stars.
Team To Watch: San Antonio Spurs
It may seem patronizing to tell you to watch the San Antonio Spurs, but Gregg Popovich’s crew is somehow flying under the radar. As the Golden State Warriors sit pretty at 24-1, the Spurs are 21-5—just 3.5 games back of the team that went on a 24-game winning streak.
Not only is San Antonio within striking distance of Golden State, but one could argue that they’ve been just as dominant. The Spurs are outscoring opponents by an average of 13.2 points per game—the No. 1 margin of victory in the NBA.
Most impressively, San Antonio is holding opponents to 87.9 points per contest. For perspective, the second-best scoring defense belongs to the Miami Heat with an average of 93.6 points allowed—5.7 more than the Spurs.
Next: NBA Power Rankings: Week 8
Throw in the fact that San Antonio is No. 3 in offensive efficiency, and one thing is clear: Golden State isn’t as far ahead of the competition as one might’ve assumed.