College basketball has never seen this amount of uncertainty from major conference teams and its thanks to an expansion of solid mid-major programs, which could impact the NCAA Tournament.
Life comes at you fast. The second you figure things out, it pulls a Britney Spears, cuts off all of its hair, starts dating a backup dancer and goes into a downward spiral.
College basketball has entered a similar situation. As soon as we thought we knew what to expect, we’re continuously handed odd final scores that make us reconsider just what the heck is going on.
With the season being around a month old at this point, what once looked like an anomaly has not become a regularity.
Mid-majors are winning games against top-tier conference teams at a much higher rate than we’ve seen in quite some time, and it’s opened up a lot of different discussions.
Through action on Dec. 10, there have been 53 games that saw a lower-tiered conference opponent pick up wins against top-tiered conference opponents.
What are the tiers? Glad you asked. When the phrase ‘upset’ is tossed around far too frequently, it’s hard to really classify what’s an upset and what’s just a conclusion that fewer people saw coming.
To make for a more consistent way to look at upsets, I break every conference off into three different tiers.
- Tier 1 – Conferences that almost always get more than four teams in the NCAA Tournament field. Namely, they’re the Power Five (Big Ten, ACC, SEC, Pac 12 and Big 12) and then the Big East.
- Tier 2 – Conferences that can get multiple teams in the NCAA Tournament field but generally top out at a maximum of four, usually around two but sometimes just one. These are the AAC, Mountain West, Missouri Valley, West Coast and Atlantic 10.
- Tier 3 – Conferences that only get one bid in the NCAA Tournament, the ones that could have amazing seasons but without a conference tournament title wouldn’t get in the big dance. This could change in the future, but that’s how it’s viewed right now.
Just so there’s little question as to what’s constituted as an upset here, that’s how they are determined.
Now, some of these are a bit harder to definitively say are upsets. For example: George Washington (Atlantic 10) has three such “upsets,” including a home win over No. 6 Virginia, a neutral win over Tennessee and a home win over Penn State. Virginia is kind-of-sort-of an upset, but the other two really aren’t.
For the sake of this piece, we’ll look at just the Tier 3 conferences winning games over Tier 1 conferences, of which there have been 36 such games already this season.
One thing that’s stood out this season is that those major conference teams that have made their records much more impressive than they really are by loading up on home games against mid-majors have now fallen victim to their own scheduling habits.
When you’re in the Big Ten, the Big 12 or the ACC, the general thought is that no matter how bad you are, you should always beat the mid-majors because you have more resources, better athletes, more funding and are put into better situations to make postseason berths.
Instead, what we’re seeing this year is that while they, on paper, should dominate those third tier conference opponents, they have run into a wall of consistent roster changeover, solid coaching and more program stability.
Just how bad have things gotten for these Tier 1 conference teams? Through all of non-conference play last year, the Big Ten lost a total of 17 home games, six of which came from Rutgers and Michigan. As of Dec. 9, the Big Ten has 15 home losses with about three weeks left in non-conference play.
Now, the question is have these teams really gotten that bad, or is it more about how good some of these mid-majors are? The answer is simply: yes.
Of the 36 total wins by Tier 3 conference teams over Tier 1 opponents, eight of them have come against Big Ten opponents with Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio State and Illinois each accounting for two losses.
These are four programs that are either going through major changeover from last season (Wisconsin & Ohio State) or dealing with just about every injury possible (Illinois) and…I’m not quite sure how to peg Minnesota right now.
There have been a number of teams that have shown the ability to not only win against these major conference opponents, but do so convincingly. It’s not all about the lucky break here or there anymore. It’s about consistently better play because they’re dealing with a lot more seniors and juniors going against younger, inexperienced teams that just happen to be from bigger conferences.
Look at Valparaiso’s win over Oregon State on the road. Valpo returned eight of their top nine players from last season’s NCAA Tournament team. That kind of changeover, or lack thereof, gives these smaller programs a decisive advantage because they’re dealing with teammates for multiple years. They don’t have to deal with a roster makeup assuming their top recruits will stay but leave abruptly; they’re there for the duration and it makes them more dangerous as they grow together.
Of course, some of these upsets also shouldn’t be considered too big of an upset. Sure, the major conference team should almost always beat the mid-major, but there are really good mid-majors out there.
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Valpo, Chattanooga, UT-Arlington, North Florida and Monmouth have earned some of the biggest upsets, but really are just good wins for under-appreciated teams that don’t receive attention from those outside of their student body and respective conferences unless they get wins like these. They’re not entirely surprising, but they do stand out.
Teams from Tier 1 conferences no longer have the same sort of advantages over these Tier 3 conference teams and it’s shining through this year. Other than at the very top of the nation, any major conference team could lose to a mid-major and it shouldn’t be considered as more than a result you didn’t see coming because you aren’t paying close enough attention.
This has become more and more common, and once the NCAA Tournament rolls around, those mid-majors in the field will have earned their berth, maybe even earned it more than those major conference teams. These sort of finals aren’t going to go away and could increase over the next few years, as well.
Next: 2016 NBA Draft: Non-Freshmen With Star Potential
College basketball has officially shaved its head. All that’s left is for the no-name backup dancer to come along and put a ring on it. Weird, right?