The combined play of Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo for the Orlando Magic is becoming a worry
For the Orlando Magic, this season has been a decent one so far. They’re hovering just below .500 and look to have the staying power to continue to do so after a tough run of games to start the year. However, the Eastern Conference is looking better than it has in a quite some time, a concern as the Magic look to break into the playoffs sooner rather than later.
While there have been some bright spots in this campaign so far, most notably that breakout play of Evan Fournier, it’s time to address an issue that doesn’t look like it’s going to be fixed anytime soon: the backcourt tandem of Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo and their inconsistent play so far.
Both guards were expected to be the foundation with which the Magic could launch an attack on the postseason. Oladipo is still supposed to morph into this team’s star player, and although he’s one of only seven players to post a triple-double so far this season, he hasn’t quite kicked on like he was supposed to.
So much so, in fact, that he came off the bench in Orlando’s recent home win over the New York Knicks. He played 26 minutes of that game (his career average is 33.2), but he did lead the team in scoring with a season high 24 points. As we’ll see in a moment when we delve into his numbers further, that would have been a big boost to his morale.
But is coming off the bench for the good of the team really the sign that Oladipo is on the brink of breaking through as a star in this league? They got the win against the Knicks, sure, and it was a creative move by head coach Scott Skiles to get Channing Frye (who leads the team in adjusted field goal percentage with 61 percent) going too. But it only served to mask Oladipo’s glaring flaws as one of the lead guys on this team.
Despite having a 22 percent usage rate when on the court, Oladipo is shooting 36 percent from the floor — a bad number made worse when you consider it’s the third lowest on his own team. Although a 34 percent three point shooter last year, this season has seen what was an average long ball plummet to new lows, as Oladipo is shooting 26 percent from beyond the arc. This is despite averaging 4.4 attempts per game, a career high and one more a night on average than last season.
Clearly Oladipo is trying to shoot himself out of his funk, and while that is one method for getting over poor shooting, guys like Fournier are showing him how it is done. He leads the team in no major statistical category, while his Player Efficiency Rating of 14.2 is below the league average of 15 (it has improved in recent games, however still lags behind the 15.9 he posted last season).
His rebounding numbers (six per contest) are a career high, although his assists have dropped off too (from 4.1 a game his first two years to 3.5 this time out). Even more worrisome, his 13.7 points a game are way down from the 17.9 posted last season, and he’s doing so in less effective ways.
He’s led the team in scoring only twice all season, including that win against the Knicks, but he only shot 5-for-15 from the field and 1-for-4 from three-point range on that night. The other occasion was that opening day loss to the Washington Wizards, but again, it wasn’t done effectively, as he went 7-for-20 from the floor and 1-for-8 from deep for 17 points. That’s not pretty reading.
WHEN YOU REALIZE YOUR PICKS, #2 (Oladipo) #4 (Gordon) AND #5 (Hezonja), FROM THE LAST 3 SEASONS ALL ARE COMING OFF THE BENCH
— Be Magic Or Be Gone! (@BeORLMagic) November 26, 2015
For Payton, while his numbers haven’t taken quite as severe a hit, it appears to be a confidence thing. One night he can look like he’s figured out the pace of the professional game as he controls the tempo on both ends. On other occasions he forces things offensively, and survives on talent alone on the defensive end. His play can swing so much in either direction that it’s puzzling.
His assist numbers, while still impressive, are down ever so slightly from last year from 6.5 to 6.3 per game. That’s acceptable, but having an effective field goal percentage of 37 percent (down from 43 percent his rookie year) is less so.
The reason for this is likely Payton’s development of a more consistent outside shot, which has been great to see added to his game. The worry now, however, is that he’ll fall in love with that shot despite being a great driver to the basket.
He’s shooting 33 percent from three-point range, still not great but worlds better than the 26 percent he posted his rookie season. It’s somewhat ironic to see Oladipo trend in the complete opposite direction in this regard. He only just about breaks even in the defensive +/- category as well, an area he is supposed to be good at. The +0.1 is average, but the -2.2 sitting in his offensive +/- category points to a player who is not helping his team on that end at all when he’s on the court.
All of this, when combined with the poor play by Oladipo, points to the Magic having a problem in their backcourt. With C.J. Watson injured and Devyn Marble being a statistical liability, there’s not much they can do. There may come a time soon when Shabazz Napier sees even more minutes, although his poor Player Efficiency Rating of 11.8 is only a small bit better than Payton’s 11.6. Those are poor numbers for floor generals who are supposed to impact the game in many ways.
Moving Oladipo to the bench worked once, but how long before that becomes an issue? As somebody who was touted as this team’s future since the day he was drafted, it would represent a fall from grace for Oladipo. Similarly with Payton, while it’s not time to give up on him as a starter, how long can this team try their best to fit around his unique skill set?
Look I’m not really panicking yet, especially with the likes of Fournier, Nikola Vucevic and Tobias Harris bringing it on most nights. I did expect more from the both of them though, and it’s especially frustrating when you consider this team has clearly gotten better since last season.
Some consistency from Orlando’s backcourt could see them rise into playoff contention. It’s not a crisis yet, but it’s not a happy situation either and it’s definitely something to watch as we head into December.