Daily NBA Fix: Regressing Is Sometimes Progressing
By Ben Gibson
So far this season here on the Daily NBA Fix we’ve celebrated Stephen Curry‘s greatness several times, picked on James Harden and prematurely declared Kobe Bryant was back, among other things.
I’ve refrained from hitting the panic button more than once but as the season goes on all of this will most likely do one thing.
Regression (which is sometimes progression) to the mean. If you need a reminder of how regression is defined, it is the phenomenon that the more extreme measurements of any statistic tend to get closer to the average upon repeated measurement.
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So when Harden starts off the season shooting 22 percent, well below his career average, what is more likely: That he has completely lost the touch or that he’s just having a tough start the season? After digging himself a hole he’s still statistically crawling out of, Harden’s shooting 34.4 percent, a number that will still likely improve closer to his career average of 44.2 percent.
Now that he’s started dropping 43 points in a game like he did to the Sacramento Kings Friday night, I think it is safe to assume that he’s going to progress, um, regress to the mean. The Rockets won 116-110.
Paul George started off the season shooting 33.3 percent from the field and 20 percent from beyond the arc in the first four games. In his last two that’s improved to 48.9 percent and 41.2 percent, respectively.
His career averages are 42.7 percent and 35 percent, so I tend to think he may not make nearly half his shots, but he’s better than the guy who was only making a third of his shots at the beginning of the season.
PG has the circumstance of coming off his devastating leg injury but after Friday night’s performance against the Miami Heat it looks like he’s getting his game back, slowly but surely. The Pacers won 90-87.
But just because statistics tend to do that doesn’t mean that they will.
Stephen Curry is on pace to make just less than 500 3-pointers and he’s shooting at 51.1 percent, well above his career average of 44.2 percent. The pace he’s set is to make 492-of-959 attempts, which is absurd considering he broke the record last season with 286 made. The record for attempts is 678 by George McCloud in 1995-96.
Even Steph had to laugh at the absurdity of the number when @timkawakami informed him he was on pace for almost 500 3s
— Nate Duncan (@NateDuncanNBA) November 7, 2015
First Curry laughed when I asked if 500 three-pointers was possible. Then he laughed when I said I had him down for 400. Curry: "You do?"
— Tim Kawakami (@timkawakami) November 7, 2015
These are ridiculous numbers. It's an unbelievable pace. It's so Curry that even he seems stunned by it all. And he's doing it.
— Tim Kawakami (@timkawakami) November 7, 2015
Will he actually make 500? That’s a tough bet to take, but consider that even if he regresses to his career average of 44.2 percent and keeps up the 11.7 attempts per a game, he’d shatter the record with 423 made. I might take that bet, though. It is only six games in, but I think Curry may just be playing at this pace now, or at least faster that last season.
We have to wait and see, but there is almost no doubt that he will break his own mark of 286.
Statistics tend to regress to the mean, but that doesn’t mean they have to. If Curry has taught us anything over that past few seasons, it is that he’s just not like everyone else. And that is terrifying.
Porzingis Puts Things Back Where They Belong
This has nothing to do with regression or any other statistic. This is just Kristaps Porzingis putting back a Langston Gallaway miss with the subtlety of a chainsaw.
Porzingis ended the night with 14 points, 13 rebounds and a block, but the Knicks fell to the Milwaukee Bucks 99-92.
The Raptors Are Perfect No More
The Toronto Raptors started off the season 5-0 but the Orlando Magic stopped them from making it six straight with a 92-87 victory.
The Magic were led by Tobias Harris with 20 points, Victor Oladipo with 18, and C.J. Watson had 12 to lead an emerging Orlando squad. DeMar DeRozan led the Raptors with 23 points but the Toronto’s loss drops them down to third in the way-too-early-to-care-about-that-positioning Eastern Conference.
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That leaves only Golden State perfect at 6-0 with a win over the Denver Nuggets while the New Orleans Pelicans are a perfectly imperfect 0-5 after a loss to the Atlanta Hawks. Anthony Davis tied his career high with 43 points while grabbing 10 rebounds, but the Pelicans are still searching for their first win as they battle injury. And obviously the Philadelphia 76ers are winless at 0-5 as well as the Brooklyn Nets at 0-6 because they are terrible.