He was supposed to be the runaway MVP. Alvin Gentry was supposed to unshackle him from the offensive constraints Monty Williams apparently imposed upon him. Meanwhile, defensive guru, Darren Erman, was supposed to optimize his physical traits and catapult him into Defensive Player of the Year status.
We’re only four games in, but things are not exactly going to plan.
Last season, Anthony Davis took the league by storm. A darling in the analytical community, the Brow ranked among the league’s top handful of players in almost every advanced metric — from PER to Win Shares Per 48 minutes.
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Thus, at the tender age of 22, it is easy to hypothetically explain why Davis’ ceiling is limitless.
However, the panic level surrounding the New Orleans Pelicans is incrementally rising by the day as the team remains winless on the young season, driven in large part by the laundry list of injuries the Pellies have suffered and the demoralizing task of having to face the defending champs twice in their first three contests.
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But, losing to the Orlando Magic — who led comfortably for the majority of their match — is inexcusable if the team has any hopes of making the playoffs.
Davis, likewise, has not looked like the generational talent he is hyped up to be.
More explicitly, the 6’11” pterodactyl is anchoring the third worst defense in the association, sporting a defensive rating of 112.2, per Basketball-Reference. As a matter of fact, the Pelicans are relenting 6.9 points per 100 possessions more with AD on the floor.
Offensively, the Brow is not faring much better, shooting a putrid 37.9 percent from the field, and scoring his 20.8 points per game on a True Shooting Percentage of just 49.6 percent — approximately three percentage points below the current league median and almost 10 percentage points below his TS% last season.
So, what precisely is causing AD’s regressed play?
Well, I’m glad you asked. In my opinion, his anemic start stems from two major factors.
Guard Play
He may be one of the most polarizing players on the Pelicans’ roster, but Tyreke Evans is unquestionably the team’s most crucial playmaker — a bulldozing combo guard who possesses a natural pick-and-roll synergy with Davis.
Pelican Debrief
It certainly does not help that Jrue Holiday, New Orleans’ starting point guard, is on a strict minutes restriction.
With their two primary ballhandlers either limited or out indefinitely, the Pelicans have had to hand the reins of their offense over to the likes of Ish Smith, Toney Douglas and Nate Robinson (who has since been cut, after starting the season opener).
Being bereft at the league’s deepest position has handicapped Gentry’s envisioned offense. More importantly, it hinders the team’s ability to feed AD the ball in his preferred sweet spots.
To be more specific, according to NBA.com’s SportVU Data, over half (51.5 percent) of Davis’ field goal attempts thus far this season are of the contested variety, with a defender draped within four feet of him. AD has struggled in such situations, converting on just 36.5 percent of his contested tries.
In comparison, the Brow only shot a fifth of his field goal attempts last season when he was closely guarded.
Smith, as quick as the former Wake Forest Demon Deacon is, is most comfortable driving and kicking to his wing shooters, as oppose to probing the pick-and-roll and playing the two-man game with his flaring, sweet-shooting bigs.
As a consequence, too many of the Pelicans’ offensive possessions end with Davis stuck with the ball in his hands as the shot clock is winding down — isolated on an island elbow-extended, where AD either throws up a contested long two or takes one dribble to his left before chucking up a soft floater, hoping to draw a foul from an overcommitting defender.
As tantalizing of a talent as Davis is, he is not someone you dump the ball down to and expect an automatic two points. Alternatively, he’s most effective when catching on the move, where his ability to hit the midrange J and length at the rim can be accentuated.
And without the presence of adequate guard play (even if he’s playing at a heightened pace), in conjunction with the incorporation of the three-ball into his game, expect Davis to still put up numbers, but not with the mind-numbing efficiency of yesteryear.
Effort
Anthony Davis put #musclewatch on notice this offseason when he reportedly gained “12 pounds of muscle without losing any of his athleticism.”
The thought of a chiseled 253-pound Brow brought unadulterated fear across the entire league.
However, the intensity with which a fully-engaged AD played last postseason has yet to be found early this year.
There are too many possessions in which Davis is seen jogging back on defense, or missing his rotation when the opposing ballhandler intrudes the paint. His pick-and-roll D has been shoddy, at best, over-relying on his length to mask his constant tardiness.
Chances are, by the end of the season, the law of averages will play its part and Davis will regain his outside stroke. His effort defensively and the Pelicans’ dire guard play, however, must be addressed in some capacity in order for the Brow to match his highly publicized preseason hype.
With nearly every other superstar and upcoming star in the association — most notably, the Andre Drummonds, John Walls, Kawhi Leonards, Russell Westbrooks, and of course, the Stephen Currys of the world– outperforming their expectations, AD already has a gap to make up to thrust himself back into the early MVP conversation.