The biggest question for the Los Angeles Clippers heading into the season is who should be the starting small forward: Paul Pierce or Wesley Johnson. For many, the answer is simple. Pierce is the better, more experienced player while Johnson is a journeyman wing who hasn’t been an impact player in the league.
While Pierce drew the start in the team’s preseason opener against the Nuggets, Johnson started the team’s second preseason game against the Raptors.
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The news of Johnson getting the start isn’t necessarily shocking as various reports had hinted that Doc Rivers would be bringing Pierce off the bench, but it is a validation of those reports.
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To many, bringing Pierce off the bench and starting another new Clipper, Johnson, is a mistake given each of the player’s track records. Johnson, the fourth overall pick in the 2010 NBA Draft, finds himself on his fourth team in six seasons while Pierce is thriving in the twilight of a Hall of Fame career.
While other young wings were reaping the benefits of the NBA’s rising salary cap in free agency, Johnson signed early in free agency to join the Clippers on a veteran’s minimum deal. The signing didn’t generate much buzz and certainly never was viewed as a contender for the championship adding a starter.
Pierce signed with the Clippers three days after Johnson for three times the salary and it was assumed Pierce would be the starter.
Johnson appears to be viewed as the opening-day starter for the Clippers, so what does that mean for Pierce?
In the NBA, being named as a starter is only important because more frequently than not, it means a player has a larger role and the team needs that player on the court for more minutes in hopes of maximizing their chance of winning. This isn’t the case with the Clippers starting Johnson over Pierce.
Presumably it will be Pierce being the one that finishes games in place of Johnson. The move does make sense for both the Clippers and Pierce.
Bringing Pierce off the bench changes the style of play of the Clippers’ bench unit. With their starting unit of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, the Clippers are about as immune to the effects of small-ball that has become the trend in the NBA. Griffin and Jordan are both mobile enough to step out on shooters, run the floor, and big enough to be able to punish smaller opponents.
Playing Pierce as a small-ball power forward is a key element that allows the Clippers’ bench unit to get out and run while creating space for their many scorers to work with. The Clippers will likely trot out a five-man bench unit of Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford, Lance Stephenson, Pierce, and Josh Smith quite frequently when relieving their starting unit.
While many teams treat players as interchangeable by position regardless of being a starter or coming off the bench, Doc Rivers has historically alternated between a starting unit and a bench unit, with very little overlap between the two. This means that the starters (Chris Paul, J.J. Redick, Johnson, Griffin, and Jordan) will often play with each other but not without each other.
The same goes for the bench unit, although that will likely change a tad this season to tailor to the team’s new-found depth.
Let’s take a look at the Clippers’ bench unit if Pierce started and Johnson played in a reserve role. Our revised Clippers bench would be doomed by the same problem that doomed Stephenson’s Hornets and Smith’s Pistons, spacing. Both Smith and Stephenson were much ballyhooed free-agent signings for their respective franchises, but didn’t fit with the pieces around them.
For Stephenson, it was a spacing nightmare next to fellow non-shooters Kemba Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Smith faced the same problem with the Pistons oversized frontcourt of Smith, Greg Monroe, and Andre Drummond.
Stephenson and Smith’s issues led to them being unceremoniously let go and into another situation, culminating in them becoming teammates this off-season.
For an excellent example of why spacing matters, look no further than this tweet and image below, with the image being lifted from BasketballAnalyticsBook.com.
The gist of this is that having shooting threats on the court creates less help defense and thus, more room to create scoring opportunities. Teams with four 3-point threats, the qualifications being a 33.3 percent average from deep with .05 attempts per minute played, scored at a rate that would’ve led the NBA. Offenses with three shooting options would’ve finished sixth.
Teams with two or fewer shooting threats were most common out of these lineups and produced offenses that scored just a tad above league average while lineups with one shooter or fewer produced an offensive rating that would’ve ranked among the bottom tier offenses.
The Clippers are aware of the issues that plagued Smith and Stephenson and playing Pierce with them will help alleviate the issues that are caused when a lack of shooters are on the floor. Johnson qualifies as a “three-point threat” by the criteria determined by Basketball Analytics Book, but he is not the shooter that Pierce is.
Johnson’s career-high percentage from deep is below Pierce’s career average. If Johnson were on the bench unit, he would have the highest percentage from deep among Rivers, Crawford, Stephenson, and Pierce, but that lineup would be severely undersized.
Pierce as a small-ball power forward gives the team a better shooting option to spread the floor for the three combo guards and Smith to dribble, something they all like to do.
Although the bench with Pierce will still only provide one player to qualify as a three-point threat (Crawford shot 32.7 percent, Rivers 30.9 percent with the Clippers, Stephenson a paltry 17.1 percent, Smith 31.6 percent), Pierce as a power forward should create mismatches for opponents that should help the Clippers deal with their lack of shooting.
Crawford’s low percentage last season might not be representative of his shooting ability, as he’s a career 35 percent shooter. The undersized power forward and center combination of Pierce and Smith will also work as a way to create space beyond just shooting ability.
Pierce and Smith are both given huge advantages with their ability to put the ball on the floor against bigger opponents who will likely not be very experienced on defending the perimeter.
Teams who can’t go small to match up with the Clippers will see their big men sag off to avoid being beaten off the dribble, giving Pierce and Smith room for catch-and-shoot opportunities or go past bigger defenders as they attempt to close out Pierce and Smith after they catch the ball.
Smith isn’t a good shooter, but he’s capable of knocking them down from time to time and will create favorable matchups for the Clippers.
The small-ball revolution has gradually increased over the past few years and that shows no sign of slowing down after the Warriors used the tactic so wisely in their championship season last year. The fundamental issue with going small is that teams cannot simply play an any extra small forward in the place of a power forward. There is a skill set and risk that comes with going small.
For example, the Warriors have the perfect roster to go small with. Draymond Green can play center in very small lineups or play power forward and use his excellent ball skills to exploit mismatches. Harrison Barnes is athletic and strong enough to defend most backup power forwards without being exploited when Barnes has to play in the post.
This is a combination of players and skill sets that is rare among today’s players and allows coach Steve Kerr to play position-less basketball. The Clippers, with Pierce operating as the Barnes type, are well-equipped to embrace the small-ball revolution.
Another one of the factors that support bringing Pierce off the bench is who he’ll be going up against. Look around the league and start naming other team’s backup power forwards.
In the Clippers’ Pacific Division, Mirza Teletovic (Suns), Marreese Speights (Warriors), Brandon Bass (Lakers), and Quincy Acy (Kings) comprise the reserve power forwards that Pierce will likely be facing. It’s ironic that the Warriors with Speights, are the team best-equipped to make small-ball lineups pay on defense. Bass is a gifted scorer who can make opponents pay also.
Teletovic is a stretch-4 who will be negated offensively when Pierce goes against him. Acy can’t defend Pierce on the perimeter with a Taser and lacks the post game necessary to gain an advantage over Pierce. Of that list of players, none of them can beat Pierce up in the post while defending him adequately.
Teams will have to alter their lineups or at least cede one side of the court to the Clippers. There just simply aren’t many backup power forwards who will be able to defend Pierce in the perimeter or in isolation who can also pound him down low offensively. If they were capable of doing both of those things, they’d be starters.
Having Pierce eschew the pre-game announcements of the starters doesn’t mean he can’t finish with them. The Clippers did so frequently with Crawford last season when in need of a little more offense in place of Matt Barnes. It would be foolish to think that one of the game’s most clutch players wouldn’t be on the floor during important moments in the fourth quarter.
Pierce can easily be inserted into the lineup that closes games in place of Johnson, and Johnson doesn’t have much of an argument as to why he should close games over Pierce yet. The Clippers can simply sit Pierce with the bench unit for stretches of play and bring in Cole Aldrich for a more typical lineup and play Smith at power forward.
The new additions for the Clippers and depth that the Clippers haven’t had since Paul arrived and began the emergence of the Clippers as contenders. The Clippers’ depth and versatility will be key in getting the most out of their bench unit and also saving Pierce for the playoffs.
This can also be done while not playing Pierce a heavy dose of minutes. Pierce’s minutes per game has decreased in each of his last four seasons down to a career-low 26.2 minutes per game last season. It’s expected that that trend continues to somewhere around the 25 minutes per game mark.
The NBA schedule has finally been changed to reduce the number of back-to-back games a team plays throughout the course of a season, but Pierce will still still be given rest nights and might even see a “DNP-Old” before the season is over with.
The Clippers will have to fight for positioning in a Western Conference that is still as competitive as ever, but Doc Rivers recognizes that fresh legs in May and June are needed if the Clippers are to finally hang a championship banner of their own in the Staples Center.
Even though Pierce isn’t a traditional power forward, he will instantly be one of the top three backup power forwards in the NBA and provide a stylistic advantage for his team. Johnson can serve as the newer edition of Barnes while Pierce can reinvent himself in a new role that helps not only him, but the players around him.
This Clippers roster isn’t perfect, but you’d have a hard time finding a better situation for Pierce to continue to flourish at this stage in his career. If Pierce can fight off Father Time for another year, he will remain a crucial part of deciding how far the Clippers advance in the playoffs.
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