How Do The Thunder Match Up Against The Warriors?
By Tony Loedi
It goes without saying that an injury free Oklahoma City Thunder team is as good as any in the league. If it weren’t for the injuries they suffered the past three seasons, they could already have championship banners hanging from the rafters of Chesapeake Energy Arena.
They’ll get another chance this season, but it won’t be easy. Getting out of the Western Conference is hard enough, let alone winning a title. At the top of the list of teams to beat are the defending champion Golden State Warriors.
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Led by offensive wizard Stephen Curry and defensive powerhouse Draymond Green, the Warriors use a small lineup to suffocate teams on defense and spread them thin on offense. So far, no one’s been able to counter their small unit.
Will OKC be able to this season? They’ll need to if they want to make it out of the Western Conference. Let’s have a look at how they match up to find an answer.
Likely Starting lineup’s
PF Draymond Green Serge Ibaka
SF Harrison Barnes Kevin Durant
SG Klay Thompson Andre Roberson
PG Stephen Curry Russell Westbrook
In last season’s Finals series against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Warriors went super-small with Draymond Green playing center. It was a master stroke by Steve Kerr, with his team turning a 2-1 deficit into a 4-2 series win. But don’t expect the Warriors to use that same super-small lineup too often during the regular season.
Playing super-small for three games in a series is one thing, but to do it for 82 games borders on madness. It’s physically too demanding. They’ll use it, but it will be sparingly. Expect them to go back to a more traditional starting lineup, with Andrew Bogut at center, during the regular season.
Thunder Offense vs. Warriors Defense
Against this Warriors defense, the Thunder could cause serious headaches. The big question is who picks up Kevin Durant? The obvious answer would be Draymond Green but that leaves Harrison Barnes guarding Serge Ibaka. In that situation Ibaka is a real threat on the offensive boards, he’s just too big and too powerful for Barnes to box out.
In the Finals, the Cavaliers’ big men, Timofey Mozgov and Tristan Thompson, were able to dominate Golden State on the offensive glass. With Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love out injured, and with LeBron James as the only offensive threat, the Cavs weren’t able make the Warriors pay.
Give the Thunder that many second chance opportunities and they will make you pay.
Steve Kerr might just be tempted to guard Durant with Barnes and hope his teammates can help him out with traps and double-teams.
Either way it won’t be easy for the Warriors. If Andre Roberson can improve his three-point shot, it’ll be even harder.
Thunder Defense vs. Warrior Offense
This is where it gets tricky for OKC. Playing with a traditional two-big-man lineup against a team with a playmaking power forward (Draymond Green), requires one of either Kanter or Ibaka to play out on the perimeter.
The job probably goes to Serge, who’s quick enough to chase Draymond around the court and switch on pick-n-rolls, but it’s not ideal. That leaves Enes Kanter as the lone rim protector, which going by his career so far, could be catastrophic against a Curry-led offense.
If Enes Kanter doesn’t improve his defensive game, whatever advantages the Thunder have on offense will be voided on the defensive end.
Possible Finishing Lineups
C Draymond Green Serge Ibaka
PF Harrison Barnes Kevin Durant
SF Andre Iguodala Anthony Morrow
SG Klay Thompson Andre Roberson
PG Stephen Curry Russell Westbrook
There’s a good chance both teams bring out their super-small lineups to finish games — Andre Iguodala comes in for Bogut and Anthony Morrow replaces Kanter.
This would be so much fun to watch. Both teams have three elite outside shooters and also three elite defenders on the floor. With the Warriors lacking any rim protectors in this lineup, Westbrook would be devastating attacking the rim. But on the other end Golden State possesses five players all capable of hitting threes, which is devastating in and of itself.
It’s hard to pick a winner out of these units. The Warriors have the overall edge in shooting but OKC should win the rebound battle. The Thunder also have two elite playmakers in KD and Russ, while the Warriors only really have Steph Curry — although, Curry alone might be good enough.
Most bookmakers would give the advantage to the Warriors, but I’m not so sure. OKC’s ability to toggle between big and small lineups could present the Warriors with some major issues.
It’s hard betting against the juggernaut we call the Golden State Warriors, but if I had to pick with a gun to my head, in a best-of-seven series I’d have to go with the Thunder.
It would be a really fascinating playoff matchup. Let’s hope we get to see it, with both teams injury free.
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