OKC Thunder: Has Mitch McGary overtaken Nick Collison?

It doesn’t feel that long ago that Nick Collison was one of the Oklahoma City Thunder’s most valuable players. Never with scoring or even rebounding, but more so just his presence. He was one of those plus-minus monsters, always in the right spot offensively or defensively, had a reliable jump shot and even was a sneaky quick jumper that dunked quite a bit from underneath the rim after offensive rebounds or dump-offs.

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Now at age 34, Collison has seen his minutes dropping the last four seasons. His per-36 numbers have been pretty consistent — basically 8-9 points, four rebounds — but last year his shooting percentage dropped dramatically. For the first time in his career, he was under 50 percent shooting and was way under at 41.9. Age may have finally caught up to him.

The Thunder’s frontcourt will be as loaded as ever this season. The center spot minutes will be taken by Enes Kanter, Steven Adams and Serge Ibaka when the team goes small. Then the minutes at the four should be split between Ibaka, Kevin Durant during small ball, Kanter and Adams may even play together some, and then that leaves Collison and second-year pro Mitch McGary.

It’s a crowded group that will fight for 48 minutes at each position. When the Thunder are at full strength, someone will have to be the odd man out. It may be time for Collison to be that guy.

If you’re lazy, you compared McGary to Collison when the Thunder drafted him No. 21 overall in 2014. If you’re a little less lazy, you compared McGary to David Lee. The lefty from Michigan is around the same size as Lee and frankly, his game resembles Lee’s quite a bit, and McGary has even admitted as much. Lee had All-Star potential on bad teams and eventually solid ones. It’s too early to tell if McGary’s ceiling is that high — and it would be very tough for him to reach it in OKC — but he was definitely one of the bright spots last year for the Thunder.

McGary looks like a big kid out there. He hustles like crazy — to the point where you could tell he wasn’t in game shape early on in the season — and is always moving. He has great hands. They’re really strong and help him secure a lot of rebounds. He also has great instincts as a passer and is creative finishing around the rim, often from slightly below it. His defense is very much a work in progress. Let’s just say he’s lucky that the spotlight is on Enes Kanter’s poor defense.

All that is good, but it will still take a lot for McGary to overtake Collison. Collison is still a coach’s dream and his veteran presence will certainly be welcomed by new head coach Billy Donovan.

Collison tried to add a 3-point shot to his arsenal last year, especially during the times when the Thunder were dealing with the most injuries, but it didn’t go great. He attempted just under a three per game (60 in 66 games) making only 26.7 percent of them. Collison also saw his midrange game go. He shot 25 percent or less on shots from the top of the key or the two elbows extended. He used to be a poor man’s Ibaka with those shots. He was 57 percent on shots at the rim.

McGary was much better although he hasn’t tried his hand much from midrange. McGary has the edge at the rim making 60.8 percent of his shots. Overall, McGary’s 53.3 field goal percentage is a huge upgrade. And just look at the number of shots McGary was able to get off at the rim in less than half the games that Collison played.

McGary only played in 32 games but averaged 12.2 rebounds per 36 minutes to Collison’s 8.2. Collison had a nice edge when it comes to the contested rebounds he pulled down at 47.2 percent compared to just 42.6 percent for McGary. But McGary’s motor, energy and younger legs will help produce more rebounds on both ends of the floor and ignite more fastbreaks for a Thunder team that thrives in the open floor.

While McGary managed a net-positive when it comes to real defensive plus-minus at 0.35 last season, Collison holds a huge edge with a really good number at 2.13, 14th among power forwards. Both were negatives offensively, Collison more so than McGary, but the overall real plus-minus favors Collison 1.30-0.10. That’s a pretty big gap but the small sample size of 32 games for McGary combined with the injury problems makes you want to look a little more at the other areas in which the youngster has the edge.

Collison has been a big part of the Thunder franchise since the team came to OKC. He’s been there since the beginning and it’s a good bet that he will finish his career there. But it’s getting harder to justify him being a consistent part of the rotation. Healthy and if McGary continues to improve and impress, Collison will likely see his role slide to the end of the bench for the first time in his career.

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