7. Indiana Pacers: 43-39
Weakest month: April — 7 games, .406 (30th)
Hardest month: December — 16 games, .552 (3rd)
Overall strength of schedule: 19th
Only winning 38 games last season with Paul George playing just 91 minutes, the Pacers are in the toughest boat of teams to judge. The three teams involved in this dilemma are the Pacers, Bucks, and Heat.
While Milwaukee has done everything possible to deserve playoff recognition, they fall into the hole of “not enough space.” In the Eastern Conference, it’s a rarity that you label it as “crowded” or “hard to make the playoffs.” But, with the Pacers receiving a top 15 superstar back in their lineup, along with the Heat having a formidable starting five healthy this season … it pushes Milwaukee out of the picture.
This could go one of two ways, really. Either Indiana is reaching the postseason with 43 or more wins, or the Bucks will. One of those two teams will reach the 43-win plateau, and I’m just rolling with a great superstar-coach combo in George & Frank Vogel.
We don’t have the slightest bit of proof that George will fully return to his 2013-14 level, but we have to assume he’s serious about being “100 percent” and ready to go. If we’re going to take into account the last time George had two durable legs, he finished with 10.8 total Win Shares and .178 Win Shares per 48 minutes — while being the offensive and defensive catalyst of the East’s best team. For perspective, Russell Westbrook finished the 2013-14 season with the same exact number of Win Shares per 48 minutes. People still underestimated George’s impact on Indiana.
Vogel has a lot more to deal with this coming season, however. Having George back at full strength may not be enough to overcome the difficulties of a new roster.
Indiana is essentially replacing Roy Hibbert, David West, and Luis Scola (46.2 points per 36 minutes combined) with the frontcourt pieces of Jordan Hill, the returning Ian Mahinmi, and rookie Miles Turner. Not only is that a lot to let go, but it’s a lot of veteran skill and fundamental knowledge to remove from an NBA locker room.
The way Larry Bird is looking at it, though, is from a positive light. West, Hibbert, and Scola are an average of almost 33 years old, and starting fresh gives the Pacers a chance to get younger. Quicker. More athletic. More modernly-adjusted.
Turner entered the 2015 Draft as the most skeptical lottery pick, and many didn’t believe he was worthy of the No. 11 pick (I’ll raise my hand in guilt). But, his thunderous Summer League performances quickly changed the outlook. He was quite remarkable, actually. Scoring 18.7 points and blocking 4.3 shots per game in his first three Summer League games, Turner shut down the negative judgement.
What Pacers optimists will love even more, nonetheless, is Turner’s skill for scoring. In many ways, it’s already on a greater level than 28-year-old Roy Hibbert’s. Turner has more consistent range than Hibbert, and he actually knows how to score inside without hesitating, and he can utilize his size better than Hibbert has on offense. Turner shot 60.5% from the field in those three games, and that’s coming off a lot more field goal attempts than expected. Hibbert only attempted 9.3 shots per game last season for Indiana, so having a potent big-man lined up as an instant contributor could really help out Indiana’s guards/wings.
Yes, it was only Summer League. And it’s true — when opening night comes our way, the big-boy game has nothing to do with your Summer League impressions. But, it’s all Indiana has to bank on right now.
It’s also true that rookies don’t come into the league and immediately develop a Defensive Player of the Year reputation either, so you can definitely expect Indiana to decline in their paint defense. Turner will need two years to learn more defensively, but he’s in the right classroom.
Adding Monta Ellis via free agency could prove to be an underrated move, too.
Many people harp on Ellis’ defensive ability and focus, but that shouldn’t be all you dwell on. Especially with this team. In the starting lineup alone, George Hill and Paul George are exceptional defenders for their positions. I would even say Hill is a top five defensive point guard, while George is a top three defensive small forward when he’s locked in.
Therefore, having Ellis as a sub-par defender isn’t something that’s going to break them into a million pieces. Ellis’ offensive strengths probably outweigh his defensive lapses anyway. That’s actually what Indiana needed all along, because they’ve had nobody that can create easy penetration opportunities through recent years. Ellis not only still has the lightning speed to the rim for 30 years old, but he makes scoring much easier out of screen-rolls.
Although Ellis only shot 43.4% out of the pick-and-roll as the ball-handler last year, the key is how often he does it. He was involved in 735 pick-and-rolls last season with Dallas (second to Damian Lillard), and that could be incredibly helpful for Frank Vogel. It will get defenses rotating around more. It will give their shooters maybe one or two more feet of space on most possessions.
As a result, the Pacers’ offensive rating should climb out of the trenches. Everyone is sick and tired of seeing Indiana in the bottom 10 when it comes to offensive expertise. The best way to mitigate or solve the problem is by switching up the roster, and setting major goals for the franchise: Become more versatile with what you run, value the 3-point arc more than your competition, and become less predictable.
Figuring out how to achieve those will result in more wins for the Pacers. Unfortunately for them, they have to deal with a tougher Eastern Conference than the previous year. That’s the only reason they aren’t in the 45-48 win range. Adjustment takes time, and most fans want to skip the process.
Give Vogel his time.
Next: 6th Seed