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When Will Stephen Curry Become NBA All-Time Three-Point Leader?

By Mark Vandeusen

May 15, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) sets to shoot as Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley (11) looks on in game six of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at FedExForum. Warriors defeated the Grizzlies 108-95. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
May 15, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) sets to shoot as Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley (11) looks on in game six of the second round of the NBA Playoffs at FedExForum. Warriors defeated the Grizzlies 108-95. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports /
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This past spring, Stephen Curry guided the Golden State Warriors on a magical ride to an NBA title. In doing so, Curry illustrated how the league is changing by shattering Reggie Miller‘s record for three-pointers made in a single postseason:

The fact that Curry’s teammate, Klay Thompson, came within one of the previous mark during the same playoff run is a testament to the NBA’s new found love of the three-point shot.

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Unfortunately for Curry, those 98 postseason threes do not count in the league’s record books toward his career total, which stands at 1,191.  For the moment, Curry is in 50th place on the all-time list, just ahead of Ben Gordon (1,171) and right behind Mike Dunleavy (1,212 — the second Mike Dunleavy).

The other name from the above tweet, Ray Allen, is No. 1 with 2,973.  Despite the 48 people in between, it’s only a question of when, not if, Curry will pass Allen to become the NBA’s three-point king.

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In 2012-13, Curry broke the single-season record by making 272 three-pointers (previously held by Allen with 269 in 2005-06).  Last year he set a new standard with 286.  In between, Curry knocked down 261 in 2013-14, giving him three of the top five totals in league history in the past three seasons.

For all we know, Curry could continue to stretch the record books in the years ahead.  To play it safe, let’s assume his production levels off. He’s averaged 273 triples per season for the last three years, so at that rate, he’ll amass 1,638 in the next six seasons, which would give him a total of 2,829. Curry could then supplant Allen for the No. 1 spot the following year, in 2021-22.

Is seven seasons at his current pace too much to ask?  Curry will turn 34 years old in 2022.  Even if his production slows down before then, He’s still a virtual lock to connect on the 1,783 threes necessary to trump Allen.

If he only hits 250 for the next four years, then 200 for the three after that, Curry will be within 183 of Allen.  He could then sink just 100 three-pointers in each of his last two seasons, and retire at the tender age of 36 as the NBA’s all-time three-point leader with 2,991.

For comparison, Allen and Miller (who’s second on the career list with 2,560) both played until they turned 39.  Allen has even left open the door for returning as a 40-year-old in 2015-16.

My guess is, Curry will blow past 2,973 and be in the neighborhood of 3,500 three-pointers before he decides to call it quits.

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